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gyroprotagonist

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by gyroprotagonist

  1. it's no different than a porch pirate imo.  especially after you let her know it was yours and offered to come by and pick it up.  She stole it and is a thief.

    I had a package delivered to our house.  box was beat to hell, like Ace Ventura level of damage 

    VacantJoyousBlackpanther-size_restricted

    did not see who the addressee was but i called UPS 5 times to come and get it.  Set the damn thing out 5 times and they never showed up and just said fuck it.  turns out it was a this huge bass amp.  looked it up and it was ~$500 or so.  daughter played bass at the time and we hooked it up once and now it clutters up the playroom.  csb for sure.

  2. 1 hour ago, ztejas said:

    Couple issues here. First, ain't no one on this board getting up 500 NBA 3s in a day without their arms and legs being on fire the next couple days. Let alone 500 every day for a year. That's an insane workload that requires a lot of specific muscles that aren't conditioned unless you're already shooting a bunch of 3s. That's like saying, "assuming you run 10 miles a day every day for a year".

    again, i am biased, but 500 shots a day seems like a piece of cake (if that's the only thing on the agenda).  but for someone that has not touched a ball in years or is completely out of shape, then maybe it would take a 2-3 weeks to get to that point.  doing an actual 3-point competition using racks of balls is really very tiring trying to get all the shots off before the buzzer, but if you were to treat each 3 like a free throw and take 20 seconds between shots that is under 3 hours of time to get it done.

    1 hour ago, ztejas said:

    Also, the idea that a "novice" (i.e. someone with little shooting experience) would start to master hitting NBA 3s with a regulation ball within a few months seems a bit dubious to me. I find it highly unlikely joe schmo in his 40s that hasn't shot a basketball in 20 years and was never a good shooter to begin with is going to start hitting 50% after half a year of training. Some people just fucking suck at basketball, and if they aren't in shape or athletic at all to begin with I'm not giving them much of a chance. 

    If the hypothetical is that rando person keeps their 9-5, can only sneak off a 1-2 hours a day to practice, then yeah.  if this person can suspend their life to train, maybe even use a coach, then I think 50% unguarded (from the corner) is achievable.  the mechanical act of shooting a basketball by yourself with no defense is not that hard to learn and improve on (Rick Barnes coached teams shooting their FTs excluded)

    1 hour ago, ztejas said:

    I'd also assume that there would be a pretty special distribution for hitting x 3 pointers in a row - especially if you're doing it for $10,000 with a witness. That 7th, 8th, 9th make is going to be harder than the 2nd one. Humans aren't robots. 

    I don't think there would be that much added pressure if you got to 7 in a row with 250 days to go.  if you are down to the last week or so then yeah, most would probably channel their inner Brett Maher under the pressure.

     

  3. i screwed up the math i think in the above post. 

    mess-up-mundane-detail.gif

    it should be even easier.  there is another way to look at with a Gamm Dist and calculate the % probability of something happening to a certain conf. level.  I found an online calc and for a 95% probability of success an 80% shooter would need ~30 tries

    image.png.4bfbd1117534d56758ab2c5e83f4350e.png

     

    20% shooter would need 30,000,000 (not 97MM)

    image.png.03be6c30fa7e266a044a436260c461b2.png

     

    and a 50% shooter would need ~3100 trials to have a 95% probability of hitting 10 in a row

    dumb-and-dumber-lloyd.gif

    • Hook 'Em 1
  4. I think 10 in a row is doable given a year to do it with unlimited retries.  go corner NBA three and keep at it.  i think i could do it in a week if that was all that was on my plate.  not humble brag but more csb, during my time on the 40 acres i remember hitting 27 in a row from (then) college range before they moved it back when just screwing around in Belmont gym.  Another guy was counting and passing the ball back out.  getting to fine-tune your shot from an exact spot on the floor and then repeating the process until you made 10 in a row would happen at some point certainly given a year to do it.  but i was a bball junkie that would just see how many 3s I could make out of 200 for fun instead of studying.  even wasting enough time to teach myself to shoot with my offhand at a decent clip.  total babe-magnet, i know...

    as to the math side of it, if one had a great shot, say hitting 80% of unguarded 3s in practice, then the probability is ~10% of hitting 10 in a row.  

     

    E(X)=np --> n(0.1)=10 --> n=100  you could knock out 100 10-shot trials in a day

    if your make chance was 50% n= 10,300 tries.  103K shots (well less than that assuming you quit your 10-shot trial after a miss and immediately started a new one).  500 shots a day (50 trials) should give you plenty of time to get it done within a year.  never mind that even a novice would start to master the same shot at the same distance if shooting it over and over again for 2/3 of a year and raise their make % as time went on.

    make chance = 20% then n= 97,656,250 and you are probably going to be there a while as you would need to put up just shy of 12K shots per hour and not sleep for a year.  But as stated in the 50% example, if you could raise your make % from 20% to 50%  before 150 days had passed then it should be possible to still do it.  I think the 50% example was ~200 days at 500 shots per day.

    humans are pretty good at getting better at a repetitive task given enough time.  just look at how badly OU sucks and how stupid aggy is after all these years

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. 6 hours ago, Sam Lin said:

    BMW drivers gonna BMW.

    bmwparking.thumb.jpg.df61b6d3c387ea7b769291ac46b3df38.jpg

    591c77eb-8f94-4190-beba-f08dfed21e22_tex

    if some dildo cussed out my wife for trying to park in the handicapped space and using a wheelchair, at a minimum their car would be fucked up and then i would probably get in some sort of altercation with douchebag.  i am not even an internet tough guy so 50/50 on me getting stomped.

    • Like 4
  6. 13 hours ago, YGIFS said:

    what the fuck is the background check/application process for a youth pastor in the fucking South like these days?

    "Well, I don't have kids/My kids are grown/my kids don't go to this church, but I'd like to just spend lots and lots of time here with the junior high students and maybe have them over to my house and bunk with them at weekend retreats and communicate with them privately on their phones/email without any oversight from anyone here at the church if that's cool with you guys?" 

    YOU'RE HIRED! 

    i think one also has to be able to strum a few chords on an acoustic to lock down the position with no background check.  

    • Haha 1
  7. 15 hours ago, B00M said:

    Where’s the chart that shows overall crypto in/outflows? Hard to be long term bullish on BTC if it’s just siphoning money from alt coins. Hell, isn’t that chart suggesting money is about to start flowing out of BTC as people start to look for coins with higher upside potential?

    yes, that's the plan at least for how i look at it.  i generally don't invest speculate on BTC or ETH, but rather the alt coins that will/should swing more drastically.  Again, i am just a lemming to people that claim to follow this more closely, but in general, when whales take out loans and put fiat into the market to buy or poised to buy, it's a very bullish signal.  when loans are returned and/or BTC is put out their to sell, then bearish.  Alt coins tend to run up after a cycle of BTC rising then stabilizing and chopping up and down for a bit.  

     

  8. 22 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

    This doesn't seem good:

     

    I was one of them.  i did not dislike the show, but other shiny things caught my eye.

    On another topic, Does Paramount+ come free with Amazon Prime?  I wanted to try out the new Kiefer S.  show Rabbit Hole and was lamenting the need to subscribe to yet another service.  but saw that Paramount+ was active on my Amazon streaming UX.  Watched the first episode and it was pretty good.  It's basically a mash up of 24 and Person of Interest.  I loved both of those shows. 

    i dont remember even getting a free trial for P+

  9. skimmed and did not see it mentioned, but we hit up Ken Rathbun's Curbside BBQ on the Katy Trail about a month ago.  They did not have their liquor license yet and were serving free beer/hard seltzer (limit 2 lol).  Tried the ribs and brisket and both were really good (ribs especially were tender with a nice light bark).  did not snap any pics, sorry.

    https://www.dallasobserver.com/restaurants/kent-rathbun-opens-a-barbecue-trailer-on-the-katy-trail-16154906

    here is the observer article.  There is a small parking lot and street parking close by.  or park at the trail head and walk down KT to it.  It's all outdoor seating (just a trailer prepping food) and doggo friendly.

  10. 4 hours ago, Hermanator said:

    They just recently opened up a Matt's in Allen in the old Casa Del Rio place off 75 and McDermott. Haven't been to it 

    Were the Matt's in DFW basically the same as Matt's El Rancho or worse copies?

    i have a soft spot in my heart for Matts as i had been a frequest customer for ~20 years.  The ones in Dallas were built by Matt's son iirc.  Their queso is better than 90% of the texmex places out there and they have one of the better chile rellenos imo.  Also loved their Cowboy CFS (chicken fried steak with chile con carne, onions and cheese on top).  if there is a passable substitute anywhere, let me know.  Their beef fajitas were not that great.

    Mico took their location in the Lakewood shopping center and 90% of their former customers never migrated to the new location.  Their frozen margs were a step below Mico and Glorias and that might have been their death knell as they started missing on the hausfrau crowd that wanted mambo taxis.  I think Matt's changed their marg formula a year or so ago and it was better.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  11. On 3/8/2023 at 12:35 PM, honolulu horn said:

    ^^^

    Seems like a bitch move to yell at a guy, telling him that if he comes over to you you'll whip his ass, and then come over to punch him before running out of the subway. But that's just me. 

    when someone tells you who they are, believe them.  not saying any of that nonsense was justified, but philly guy started walking up the car towards that guy after he told him he would whup his ass.  

  12. went on Saturday.  whole fam enjoyed.  not as many easter eggs as i thought there might be but there was a nice h/t to the old cartoon (see my post in this thread from late July) that was funny.  not many people in the 1pm showing but it looks like it's doing better than expected for the box office take. 

  13. Was at Matt's in lakewood today and the bartender told me they are closing.   Dude gave me 2 free margs to go and said what are the going to do,  for me?

    I think tomorrow is last day.

  14. 5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

     They should have been able to throw a ton of resources into truck production and flood the field with simple trucks to help move stuff around and make their forces more mobile than they are.  

    they are waiting on those chips for the backup camera and seat warmers like the rest of us

    • Haha 2
  15. we did the same trip over thanksgiving last year.  4 days in each city with teens.  i posted a little trip report here in the London thread:  

     

     

     

     

    no idea what it cost 'cause the wife planned it all, but the airfare (biz class) and hotels were pretty damn expensive (but incredibly nice and convenient).

  16. just booked a 3y rate of 10.6 cents (in Dallas) with value power.  my old term is up starting next month.  just searched on powertochoose.org.

    i tend to just go with the longest/cheapest term i can find.  cheapest 12 month i could find was 10.2 cents.  I don't think i have ever come out of a longer term deal and the current prices are below what i was paying.

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