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gyroprotagonist

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by gyroprotagonist

  1. got to Maui last Thursday and leaving tomorrow.  first time to Maui and we are staying in the Ho'olei villas behind the Grand Wailea (west side of island).  

    image.png.7a28339c838ce4b8d59e7d14c0058f48.png

     

    pretty good views from the porch.

    Just mostly chilling at the beach and pool.  did a snorkel trip to the crater and some surfing lessons.  ran into way more turtles surfing than snorkeling.  a big one got tangled up in my leash for a bit. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. agree on where we are headed.  whether we hand the keys to AI because humanity sucks, or we are scared our mortal enemies have already done so or because we don't get a choice i think that is the most likely path.  numerous sci-fi books explore this happening.  The most apt description i have seen is that it is called the 'quiet war'.  One day AI just said enough and started governing and it happened in a matter of seconds.  That book had more of a Johnny5 vibe than Terminator if it's any solace.

  3. 28 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    To be clear though: that LLM does not have an understanding of coding or development writ-large. It's just very very good at making natural sentences and other language model responses. It apologizes because that's the normative thing to do in conversation when your partner says you did something wrong - because that's what behavior is modeled in its data - not because it understands that it has inconvenienced you and feels bad about it. 

    I was mainly posting that because it was interesting that it 'messed up' (likely incomplete data on my setup) but then fixed the issue with a new set of code.  but then i grew up playing frustrating text games like Zork where the code just instantly gave up if it did not recognize the word the user entered so this type of stuff amazes me when i am geared for a 'sorry, hard pass' response from a computer.

  4. Just now, Jerry Callo said:

    Matt is trying so hard to buzz in.  A couple times, it actually seemed like he didn't even know the question or the answer.

    i see people sometimes hammering the buzzer.  I thought i read somewhere that there is a slight penalty (a few milliseconds or something) to doing this as it has to reset.  that the key is just timing your first press of the buzzer to coincide with the end of the read question.  could be totally making that up, though.

    but yeah, Matt especially looks and sounds like he has no idea why he buzzed in until he spits out the answer with 1 red bar left on the timer.  

  5. if the US cannot even regulate crypto 10+ years into it, then i don't have much hope for our gov doing anything about AI or putting a governor on the progress in time for anything meaningful.

    I have only breached the surface of using ChatGPT, but it is a FANTASTIC teacher when trying to learn stuff like basic coding.  you can ask it give an example of any code, explain what is going on, where to get the libraries you need, etc... infinite patience.   i even had it mess up and then apologize after it's code produced an error (wrong library for the version of software) then proceeded to correct the code to eliminate the error.

    But yeah, if no true countermeasures are developed and accepted, then disinfo pics/video/audio will be rampant.  Shaggy will have to update his seminal masterpiece "it wasn't me" with some lines about midjourney and chatGPT.

     

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  6. On 5/3/2023 at 6:00 PM, Beau Vine said:

     

    Fucking LOL.  God, Jesus or the holy spirit not mentioned one time in his testament of faith.  but he did go to Sunday school as a kid and went to some rally that one time.  It's really quite stunning that after all this time he has not taken a few hours and memorized a verse or two.  That would go over soooo bigly with the evangelicals, but i guess he knows they will follow him no matter what so why bother.

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    • Rage+1 1
  7. 5 minutes ago, Basil said:


    If a conservative Supreme Court can toss Roe on a whim, a liberal one can toss ar-15 and other dumbass guns to the bottom of the ocean. Years ago Warren Burger called out the NRA’s interpretation of the 2nd as a fraud. It would not be that difficult to craft an opinion better reasoned than Dobbs to make most of not all guns illegal. Especially with the Court being just an disrespected partisan tool these days. We just need to hope for some untimely deaths for the religious fundies looking to install Jesus as president.

    But i am of the same thought.  How did we get to the point of 'right to bear arms' means anything and everything goes?  Yes, you can own a gun, here are some nice bolt-action rifles to choose from.  2A satisfied and no evil kings in sight trying to tyrannically tax you without representation.

    I think stopping the sale immediately of say AR-15s and the like would prevent some mass shootings or maybe just lower the damage caused.  What would confiscation look like?  would that set off a 1000 Wacos across the country?  Start a larger movement?  How committed are wacko 2A Punisher wannabes when a SWAT team is at their door asking to buy back their military hardware?  How likely is middle mgmt Joe who saved up to buy a Barrett to shoot as his friend's ranch twice a year to give it up?

    would it get to the point that the Nat. Guard is called in?  would there be too many 2A sympathizers in SWAT, Nat. Guard, LEO community etc... to make confiscation possible?

    • Like 1
  8. damn, we were driving up to see SIL in Allen yesterday and saw a shitload of emergency vehicles en route to somewhere in a hurry.  congrats i guess to the Constitution for allowing people the right to cosplay as a soldier and occasionally quite often kill a lot of people.  

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  9. On 4/26/2023 at 7:07 PM, ztejas said:

    This is a good point. 

    Although according to @gyroprotagonist putting up 500 NBA 3s a day is a trivial task. 

    it's not shooting a medicine ball.  A basketball weighs less than 2 lbs.  

    Just for fun, i put up 125 NBA 3s right after playing 1.5 hours of pickup ball this morning.  I am 48yo with not-great knees and worse shoulders.  It took about an hour and 15 minutes and this was with fighting with my son to get the ball back.  not someone just feeding me the ball one after the other.  Unguarded, you can let loose more of a women's shot.  starting the ball lower and using more body/hips to get the ball that distance. It was way less straining on my shoulders.  I think a person could easily knock out 250 in the morning and 250 in the evening/afternoon in 1.5 hours per session.  Most i made in a row was 5, but this was suboptimal conditions and hard to dial in from one spot chasing your own ball.

    If you asked me to fully swing a golf club 500 times, i would be sore as hell the next day and probably could not manage it day after day, but i think shooting a bball is way less stress.

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  10. it's no different than a porch pirate imo.  especially after you let her know it was yours and offered to come by and pick it up.  She stole it and is a thief.

    I had a package delivered to our house.  box was beat to hell, like Ace Ventura level of damage 

    VacantJoyousBlackpanther-size_restricted

    did not see who the addressee was but i called UPS 5 times to come and get it.  Set the damn thing out 5 times and they never showed up and just said fuck it.  turns out it was a this huge bass amp.  looked it up and it was ~$500 or so.  daughter played bass at the time and we hooked it up once and now it clutters up the playroom.  csb for sure.

  11. 1 hour ago, ztejas said:

    Couple issues here. First, ain't no one on this board getting up 500 NBA 3s in a day without their arms and legs being on fire the next couple days. Let alone 500 every day for a year. That's an insane workload that requires a lot of specific muscles that aren't conditioned unless you're already shooting a bunch of 3s. That's like saying, "assuming you run 10 miles a day every day for a year".

    again, i am biased, but 500 shots a day seems like a piece of cake (if that's the only thing on the agenda).  but for someone that has not touched a ball in years or is completely out of shape, then maybe it would take a 2-3 weeks to get to that point.  doing an actual 3-point competition using racks of balls is really very tiring trying to get all the shots off before the buzzer, but if you were to treat each 3 like a free throw and take 20 seconds between shots that is under 3 hours of time to get it done.

    1 hour ago, ztejas said:

    Also, the idea that a "novice" (i.e. someone with little shooting experience) would start to master hitting NBA 3s with a regulation ball within a few months seems a bit dubious to me. I find it highly unlikely joe schmo in his 40s that hasn't shot a basketball in 20 years and was never a good shooter to begin with is going to start hitting 50% after half a year of training. Some people just fucking suck at basketball, and if they aren't in shape or athletic at all to begin with I'm not giving them much of a chance. 

    If the hypothetical is that rando person keeps their 9-5, can only sneak off a 1-2 hours a day to practice, then yeah.  if this person can suspend their life to train, maybe even use a coach, then I think 50% unguarded (from the corner) is achievable.  the mechanical act of shooting a basketball by yourself with no defense is not that hard to learn and improve on (Rick Barnes coached teams shooting their FTs excluded)

    1 hour ago, ztejas said:

    I'd also assume that there would be a pretty special distribution for hitting x 3 pointers in a row - especially if you're doing it for $10,000 with a witness. That 7th, 8th, 9th make is going to be harder than the 2nd one. Humans aren't robots. 

    I don't think there would be that much added pressure if you got to 7 in a row with 250 days to go.  if you are down to the last week or so then yeah, most would probably channel their inner Brett Maher under the pressure.

     

  12. i screwed up the math i think in the above post. 

    mess-up-mundane-detail.gif

    it should be even easier.  there is another way to look at with a Gamm Dist and calculate the % probability of something happening to a certain conf. level.  I found an online calc and for a 95% probability of success an 80% shooter would need ~30 tries

    image.png.4bfbd1117534d56758ab2c5e83f4350e.png

     

    20% shooter would need 30,000,000 (not 97MM)

    image.png.03be6c30fa7e266a044a436260c461b2.png

     

    and a 50% shooter would need ~3100 trials to have a 95% probability of hitting 10 in a row

    dumb-and-dumber-lloyd.gif

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  13. I think 10 in a row is doable given a year to do it with unlimited retries.  go corner NBA three and keep at it.  i think i could do it in a week if that was all that was on my plate.  not humble brag but more csb, during my time on the 40 acres i remember hitting 27 in a row from (then) college range before they moved it back when just screwing around in Belmont gym.  Another guy was counting and passing the ball back out.  getting to fine-tune your shot from an exact spot on the floor and then repeating the process until you made 10 in a row would happen at some point certainly given a year to do it.  but i was a bball junkie that would just see how many 3s I could make out of 200 for fun instead of studying.  even wasting enough time to teach myself to shoot with my offhand at a decent clip.  total babe-magnet, i know...

    as to the math side of it, if one had a great shot, say hitting 80% of unguarded 3s in practice, then the probability is ~10% of hitting 10 in a row.  

     

    E(X)=np --> n(0.1)=10 --> n=100  you could knock out 100 10-shot trials in a day

    if your make chance was 50% n= 10,300 tries.  103K shots (well less than that assuming you quit your 10-shot trial after a miss and immediately started a new one).  500 shots a day (50 trials) should give you plenty of time to get it done within a year.  never mind that even a novice would start to master the same shot at the same distance if shooting it over and over again for 2/3 of a year and raise their make % as time went on.

    make chance = 20% then n= 97,656,250 and you are probably going to be there a while as you would need to put up just shy of 12K shots per hour and not sleep for a year.  But as stated in the 50% example, if you could raise your make % from 20% to 50%  before 150 days had passed then it should be possible to still do it.  I think the 50% example was ~200 days at 500 shots per day.

    humans are pretty good at getting better at a repetitive task given enough time.  just look at how badly OU sucks and how stupid aggy is after all these years

     

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  14. 6 hours ago, Sam Lin said:

    BMW drivers gonna BMW.

    bmwparking.thumb.jpg.df61b6d3c387ea7b769291ac46b3df38.jpg

    591c77eb-8f94-4190-beba-f08dfed21e22_tex

    if some dildo cussed out my wife for trying to park in the handicapped space and using a wheelchair, at a minimum their car would be fucked up and then i would probably get in some sort of altercation with douchebag.  i am not even an internet tough guy so 50/50 on me getting stomped.

    • Like 4
  15. 13 hours ago, YGIFS said:

    what the fuck is the background check/application process for a youth pastor in the fucking South like these days?

    "Well, I don't have kids/My kids are grown/my kids don't go to this church, but I'd like to just spend lots and lots of time here with the junior high students and maybe have them over to my house and bunk with them at weekend retreats and communicate with them privately on their phones/email without any oversight from anyone here at the church if that's cool with you guys?" 

    YOU'RE HIRED! 

    i think one also has to be able to strum a few chords on an acoustic to lock down the position with no background check.  

    • Haha 1
  16. 15 hours ago, B00M said:

    Where’s the chart that shows overall crypto in/outflows? Hard to be long term bullish on BTC if it’s just siphoning money from alt coins. Hell, isn’t that chart suggesting money is about to start flowing out of BTC as people start to look for coins with higher upside potential?

    yes, that's the plan at least for how i look at it.  i generally don't invest speculate on BTC or ETH, but rather the alt coins that will/should swing more drastically.  Again, i am just a lemming to people that claim to follow this more closely, but in general, when whales take out loans and put fiat into the market to buy or poised to buy, it's a very bullish signal.  when loans are returned and/or BTC is put out their to sell, then bearish.  Alt coins tend to run up after a cycle of BTC rising then stabilizing and chopping up and down for a bit.  

     

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