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gmr548

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Posts posted by gmr548

  1. On 4/29/2024 at 11:36 AM, immamac said:

    If Georgia goes R then Trump will win. If any state is getting redder that isn’t already solid red that’s a bad sign for everything. I can’t fathom Atlanta becoming more willing to vote for trump than in 2020. 

    This ignores demographic differences between states. The shifts that theoretically pull a GA or a NV into the R column may or may not have much of an impact in 80%+ white and much older states like WI, MI, and PA; and could even cause drift in the opposite direction.

    I think GA goes narrowly R this cycle. I think NV does too. I know @Js1 will roast me for that but the GOP has had some intermittent success in NV over the past decade, most recently a Governor's race in 2022, and the coalitions that delivered each state for Biden appear to have legitimate fractures. 

    AZ is a complete wildcard. Fundamentally it's not far from NV but the prominence of abortion an the absolute toxicity of the state GOP bring it back into tossup category. Gallego is also a strong Senate candidate and his campaign could elevate Biden a bit. 

    I don't see Trump finding 100k+ votes in MI or PA, even with the mess in Gaza. WI is one of the 2-3 legitimately 50-50 states in the country and could go either way, but Democrats there have been on a roll and have a generational opportunity at the state level.

    I think it will ultimately come down to WI and AZ. I think Biden needs both because Trump will put pressure on NE to go winner take all, the state level GOP will give in very late in the cycle and ram it through in a special session, and Maine will not have the ability or the appetite to respond in kind.

    Senate goes GOP 51-49 and the House is Democratic - not by a huge margin but more cushion than the GOP has now.

  2. 21 hours ago, BamaATL said:

    We are slap in the middle of primary season here in Georgia, just got walk up unsolicited Republican stumpers at the door for the first time.  My wife is talking to them, it's not going well for them.  All I caught of her conversation thus far was "my candidate isn't on trial for paying off a porn star, insurrection, election fraud and racketeering.  How about yours?"  

    Your wife needs to keep an eye on her voter registration from now until the election.

    • Hook 'Em 5
  3. On 4/23/2024 at 10:40 AM, HotSauce said:

    Are yalls properties, commercial MF or office? 

    It's an across the board phenomenon. Anecdotally, multifamily kinda sorta maybe seems to be moderating but it's too early to say with any confidence, and I wouldn't apply that claim nationally - sorry Gulf Coast, CA, etc.

  4. 15 hours ago, Aha Shake said:

    Middle aged and not single but I have to say it’s smartphones. Young people don’t have to seek each other out physically to be “interacting” continuously.
     

    Small town Texas we used to go to the movies every weekend before we could drive because that’s where we could hang out. Sit in the dark with girls. See what’s up. Now they lay around on phones.
     

    Not only that they’re also just distracting in general. If you and your wife have a habit of having phones near while watching TV at night see what happens when you put them away for a week or so. More hanging out, relaxing. Even old fogies are more likely to get laid then. They’re just in the way of life sadly. 

    This is part of it for teenagers. A big thing for the older under 30s is that we're living in unprecedented times in terms of educational and professional opportunity for women. To be frank, women can have standards now and that hasn't been the case for most of human history. An able bodied young man who isn't an enormous prick and has a steady income will do fine. There not actuallythat many young men who clear all three of those bars.

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  5. 12 hours ago, aggie08 said:

    That's fair. I'm certainly no Howard Stern historian, but I thought it was pretty widely known that he's gone off the deep end a little since COVID and his political leanings aren't exactly subtle. If the remaining audience is broader than I'm giving them credit for, all good. Nothing wrong with a relatively "safe" interview.

    I mean if you want to talk about broad appeal, is there a better broad description for this country than the bolded?

  6. 9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

    Is that right? Cause it doesn't sound right. Us GenX think all this shit is fucked and wish that you would leave us alone and to our own devices as society did when we were growing up. 

    From pew. 

    image.thumb.png.3e3466d3a86e2dca230554d8725eddea.png

    Electorally elder Gen Xers have pretty consistently delivered the biggest margins for Republicans in recent years. Similar to how Millennials are overwhelmingly Democratic but you wouldn't know from in this chart, that independent bloc is full of consistent Republican voters.

  7. Just now, Anastasis said:

    Don't put this fucking evil on us. 

    You are right, I crossed early and late in my mind. Should have said early Gen X'er (i.e. came of age under Reagan as opposed to Bush I or Clinton). Though as a whole Gen X is still the most conservative generation out there, for all the shit boomers get.

  8. 3 hours ago, huge said:

    I havent been paying close attention, but is the president of the University of Texas at Austin not a progressive type?  He's in cahoots with the Abbott/Patrick/Paxton/MAGA cabal?

    That seems incongruous?  Or at least very unexpected...

    He is career business/finance academic and a late Gen X'er (the most conservative generational cohort in the country) who came of age during the Reagan revolution. There was the whole working with Dan Patrick on the Liberty Institute bit - though given it didn't go anywhere it seems like he was just humoring the politicians who wanted to get involved in a flavor of the month crusade.

    I doubt he is some mouth breathing, election denying, texags dipshit and prior to this week has always seemed to handle himself professionally - not injecting politics into his job - at least from what I can tell as an unconnected observer. But simple demographic probability and his track record at UT suggest it's unlikely he is any kind of progressive.

  9. 1 hour ago, troph said:

    Hartzell was in an impossible spot. Without Abbott a difficult spot.
     

    The difficult spot - I think his letter was in hindsight hot garbage, but with large crowds, national frenzy, the hot button issue of Israel / Gaza, the current landscape of mass shootings and more the campus was not exactly safe even if the demonstrators were 100% within their rights which I believe they were until overwhelming evidence suggests they were not. 
     

    The impossible spot -  I think Abbott is a piece of pig shit, I think he’s a thug and a duplicitous power addicted MAGA slurping cumstain. And Abbott was keenly interested in a political stunt. Assuming Hartzell is not an Abbott yes man by choice, I really don’t see how he could stand up to Abbott without risking a whole lot more.

    Who is at fault - well besides the obvious blame on Abbott himself, we the people are to blame. We have what we elected, we deserve what we get. 

    if everyone of those protestors voted in elections, donated time and money (even if very little) to elections, we would be well on our way to being a better Texas.  Basically, protesting is a distraction unless you donate, volunteer and vote. 
     

    The protesters are a bunch of 18-22 year olds and many of them were not even eligible to vote when Abbott was on the ballot for his third term in 2022. None of them wer eligible to vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020 or Abbott in 2014 or 2018. Putting this on their & their cohort's voting record is a very weak argument.

  10. 1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    Bothell and woodinville are next to each other.  Woodinville might be 5 minutes further from Seattle. 

    Huh. The more you know. For whatever reason Woodinville was farther east in my mind. Thanks for the correction,

  11. On 4/22/2024 at 4:11 PM, NWBuck said:

    Just going to add this...

    If you can get past the need to live in Seattle proper, being in Edmonds would be pretty sweet- close to Everett and a quick jaunt down to Seattle if you wanted. Bothell or Montlake Terrace (as you mentioned) might also work (Snohomish county for tax purposes).

    If you were open to something more rural/small town, Snohomish is pretty nice, and I have a lot of friends who really like Woodinville (lotta wineries and such in that area).

    Edmonds would be sweet I just haven't seen anything in our sweet spot on the affordability/desirability spectrum. Seems like good quality rentals up there are expensive even by local standards and what's affordable is very old. Don't think we want to be so far out of the city as to be in Snohomish or Woodinville. Bothell and MLT on the radar though; SIL lives in Kirkland so being convenient to them is a plus.

    On 4/22/2024 at 4:24 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

    If you’re cool with million dollar house prices. But I guess if you are comfortable in Seattle proper, you would be. 

    Cool with them in that they're irrelevant to a rental search lol. We're definitely going to rent for 9-12 months and go from there. Categorically cannot afford a SFH in Seattle or Edmonds. If we bought in Seattle it would definitely be the condo or townhouse route.

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  12. Well the position in Tacoma I mentioned before ultimately fell through but my wife has verbally accepted an offer that'll be officially based in Everett, but out in the field in Snohomish County regularly (hybrid so that would be 2-3x a week, at home for the rest). They're going through the whole reference/background check song and dance before producing the full written offer, so not quite official yet but it does look like we'll be moving up there in the next 4-6 weeks. Very excited but there's a lot to get done in the interim.

    Our initial inclination is to look for a place in north Seattle convenient to I-5 and rail. Greenwood, Maple Leaf, Northgate, Green Lake, Roosevelt, something like that. Any thoughts on whether that counter-commute is doable? Evidently there are some staff that live in north Seattle and say it's not bad. I definitely prefer an urban location like that but I work remotely, I'm not the one commuting. Honestly I could compromise on an inner ring suburban location like Shoreline or Mountlake Terrace as long as it's convenient to I-5 + the coming rail extension. I worry that commuting from North Seattle will suck for her despite it being a counter commute but my wife is pretty set on living in Seattle proper as a base to get to know the region better. 

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  13. 12 hours ago, NAVY said:

    Not tomorrow, but PE kicks the everlasting shit out of Crown. 

     

    12 hours ago, immamac said:

    I got too busy to post but we had an OTF viewer meet and greet with the team there on Wednesday from 3-5. Posse East was fun. Walked over to crown and anchor after and it’s shittier than I remembered. 

    The Big Lebowski Dude GIF

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