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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Requoting because OU sucks. What exactly is there to attack? She could start with Norman? THIS. It's kind of a hard feeling to articulate but this is something I've noticed, and multiple friends have remarked to me independently. Texas has always been culturally conservative, undeniably so, but the Texas I grew up in was a live and let live place. Even as the religious far right really took hold of the GOP in the Bush years, and the GOP took full control of the state under Obama and started going full Loony Toons... SCOTUS generally kept things in check. There was a tolerable baseline. Now? The guardrails are gone, the rage and hatred are palpable, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel, because even if Harris or Allred by some miracle win this cycle, the GOP still has an iron grip on the state government and it's likely to be at least a decade before SCOTUS is anything but a Christofascist rubber stamp. Really letting his Nuttycombes hang with a GA 8/10 Democratic win prob.
  2. This is worth both spiking global carbon emissions to feed AI's immense appetite for energy and the inevitable Skynet hammer drop.
  3. Well Trump's obviously not a Texas fan since he's not familiar with the obvious flaws in his argument known as Case McCoy and Chris Simms. Also, more contemporary, may I introduce Bronny James as evidence? This did not get enough love. Well played.
  4. I was at the UW-USC game yesterday and would attribute it mostly to number 3. The defense wasn't great or anything but they kept UW in the 20's despite being -3 in the turnover margin. USC started a little slow but moved the ball well. Outganied UW by a healthy margin. I thought their QB missed several open WRs for big plays in the first half (they probably should have emphasized the running game sooner) and of course there were the three INTs. One was a tip if I recall - shit happens - but the other two were not good.
  5. White Southern American Christianity was on the front lines defending slavery, Jim Crow, and now Trump. To take any position other than the one that results in the most regressive, stratified society would be inconsistent with historical norms. I don't know why this has surprised anyone. They have been telling us who they are for 200 years.
  6. Probably because Kamala voters went to enjoy a football game, Clay, you mush-brained fucking moron.
  7. Uh, I'll say it.
  8. Texas will win, but it'll probably be frustratingly close with a clunky, conservative offense that doesn't bother trying to stretch the field much. Ewers doesn't throw the bonehead downfield picks Beck does though.
  9. - Quinn Ewers, probably
  10. Jesus Christ, Beck is melting down now. The silver lining of the Georgia loss - I figured there would be a Sark special this year that ended up in an inexplicable loss. The possibility never really occurred to me that Georgia could fall into that category but perhaps it does and it's out of the system.
  11. Ole Miss humiliated Arkansas with downfield passing and Texas will manage to find a dogfight out of that game.
  12. Georgia is still likely to win this comfortably but yeah that sequence irritates the healing wounds from the Georgia game. Pretty sure even Ewers would have hit that one though, Georgia defense just caught with their pants down.
  13. Have it on, not paying a ton of attention but getting outgained 131-26 in the first quarter is porbably not a great way for Florida to stay in it. That Carson Beck special INT is though. Woof.
  14. x, x, x, x, 3, 1, 4, 2, 5 No interviews. Respect my decision. Do you want Chili's to call the Feds and report suspicious election-focused organizing of creepy white men from the internet? Love that we have to treat the second largest state in the union like a third world country. She can say "Actually, y'all, reflecting on the past couple weeks this fucking guy is certifiably crazy and a threat to every one of our goals. I know it's underwhelming, but I'm suspending my campaign and asking you to vote for Kamala Harris. We will keep the pressure on her and Democrats but Trump is an unacceptable risk." Green Party voters are highly online and that would have high visibility among her voters, and would certainly move a chunk of them. Many, probably the majority, would ignore it and say she sold out. It would still net Harris votes though. She won't do it, but she could. They won't if it's Trump +8-10 or something but at Trump +3 it's believable. Sherrod Brown is one of those incumbent Senators with a distinct brand in his state and he is a progressive populist, which plays well. OH, especially northeast OH, is anti-immigrant/trade but still not as broadly socially conservative as the south or Indiana/Iowa. The culture war stuff is not quite as salient there. Also, yeah, Moreno is not a great candidate.
  15. Rather than net zero, isn't Trump's best case netting votes between peeling off some degree of black/latino support while only giving a little more ground with college educated whites? And then having a higher break on 2020 non-voters? And then a small degree of attrition from the Harris side?
  16. If so, then I return to the rest of my post: he should keep his mouth shut because he's unpopular.
  17. I always try to remind our Trumpy posters that they're aligning with Texags, hoping that might make them see the light. It does not. sigh I don't think it'll matter much electorally because anyone engaged enough to catch a Mike Johnson soundbite probably already voted. Still, what an own goal; also, the bill got 64 Senate votes. I'm pretty skeptical they could pass a repeal.
  18. THIS. GWB left office with disapproval pushing 70%. Trump or Biden could only dream of that. To the extent his endorsement would swing anyone, it's at least as likely to help Trump as it is Harris. It's also very possible he is voting Trump, because he fucks with the whole tax cuts and privatization over everything line of thinking.
  19. Fewer shares on the right maybe makes it more sensitive to swings? Not familiar with the ins and outs of predict it. Edit: Wait, I bet it's some MAGA nutjobs holding out on the Michelle Obama bit. That might unironically be my answer.
  20. Trump + 5.5 incoming lol The thing about PA is that if Harris loses it, it's hard to see a path where she both holds on to WI and MI, and picks up a GA/NC/AZ/NV combo to win. Like yes the path is mathematically there but demographically it's very dicey without PA. I haven't listed to Pod Save America in two months because every episode is just "Trump did XYZ!" This. Having benefitted and feeling like you benefitted are two different things. It's the latter that matters in an election though. I'd just add it depends on the margins. Trump +0.5 with a D +1 Senate race, maybe. But Gallego or Rosen aren't winning by 3, 5, 8, whatever while Trump wins those states. Obviously this is a generally fair analysis but I think it's important to point out Biden has been the most progressive POTUS on domestic policy since... LBJ? Tons of investment funneled into these communities. I don't think it's fair to say the working class has not benefitted from a Biden presidency; but I also agree perception is reality. Not only the margin, but having Trump capped at 48-49%. You'd think they could manufacture a 50%-51% sample in the rust belt states for the circle jerk. Knock on wood but today is the day where I'm starting to feel a hint of confidence. Maybe it's just the info bubble. You can still pick out data to make the case for Trump. But there are a lot of flashing red lights if I'm the Trump campaign.
  21. With voting data out there now, I'm not sure assuming 2020-level turnout is correct. Kensington is not a nice neighborhood. That took dedication and a not insignificant amount of balls.
  22. Your friends are stupid freaks and I highly recommend new ones.
  23. Just filled out my WA mail ballot and will swing by a drop box tomorrow morning. Hope it doesn't get firebombed. I'd describe myself as ambivalent toward a Harris presidency but she's the no-brainer none the less. Categorically, I will not vote for a Republican, so obviously running up the score on the presidential and statewide races but there are some GOP-aligned ballot measures best described as ratfuckery that I had the pleasure of voting against; and while I'm a little iffy on the soon-to-be Governor, other statewide Democratic incumbents/candidates seem to be accomplished and well regarded in their fields. From what I can tell they stay in their lane, no Sid Miller or Ken Paxton nonsense either, which is refreshing. My understanding is the Seattle city council seat is pretty competitive too, so not a total waste of time. Pretty cool sticker too:
  24. Alright, I've mostly been luring this thread lately but this is just garbage, as has been pointed out already. Are y'all doing this intentionally in bad faith or do you not understand income data? Y'all are comparing the average salary for an individual worker in 2024 to median household income in 2020. These are not the same data point and y'all know that. Or maybe you are both very stupid. Who knows? The Fidelity average salary you refer to is sourcing BLS data. Median weekly earnings in 2020 were $984: https://www.bls.gov/cps/aa2020/cpsaat37.htm Per the Census Bureau, your first data source median HH income was $80k for 2023. It will probably go up more for 2024. Plug that into in inflation calculator. https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html Home buying doesn't math right now because it didn't math for a lot of the population for the last 5-10 years, and then there was a major increase in borrowing costs in a short period of time. And of course, housing is structurally undersupplied in most markets. But sure let's just fabricate some data to say the problem is on the demand side and real incomes have taken a nosedive, even though that's nonsense. Great job dipshits.
  25. Because at the end of the day it's hopium. You can talk yourself into either candidate winning by selectively interpreting data.
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