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Laxtonto

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Laxtonto

  1. The next big thing to follow in the near future is does SA normalize relations with Israel and sign on to the Abraham Accords. Many argue that is what ultimately set this entire destructive set of events in motion by Iran and it's proxies. The other piece would be how does Qatar leverage being the peacemaker in this scenario. I doubt they are not going to let this fade without gaining some sort of benefit. Also see what happens with the Iranian proxies after this "12 day" war. There is going to be some serious power vacuum issues going on within these proxy groups when Iran can no longer provide the funding or arms that they need to hold sway in their own local regions. There are a lot of people who have not acted locally due to fear based upon the projection of power from Iran. Without it, many old grudges can finally be settled. 

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  2. 2 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

    I actually hate that tweet.

    You are supposed to play the game and pretend, so that Iran can save face. That's the whole point. When you tell your kid you let him beat you in 1x1 basketball, it takes the fulfillment and emotional reward away. He still feels like a loser just as if he would have lost. You have to let the Iranian's that care about the current regime feel like their country wasn't completely emasculated and embarrassed but that they got some measure of revenge.

    You only let the enemy save face if you want them to retain the support of their own populace. I don't think the US is willing to help them in that regard at all. If you think this current regimes "Death to America" stance is going to change if you let them save face, I got a bridge to sell you...  

    All this does is help provide a wedge for more of the population to believe that the current regime is not respected globally and what they report is a lie. 

    The more interesting set of quotes will be what Israel says about Qatar, Iran, and the US when this is all said and done. 

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  3. Sounds like the deal was brokered w Trump locking in Israel and Qatar talking directly to Tehran. This also makes the comments of the Qatari defense minister blaming Israel for the recent Iranian reprisals on the US bases in Qatar make more sense. 

    I am guessing that the Emir told Tehran that this is their last chance and if they refuse the ceasefire the rest of the ME will support a regime change. Right now, it is only a smoldering issue in the populace, if the other ME countries wanters to fan the flames, it would become inevitable. 

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  4. 3 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

    Hmmmm, so did Trump jump the gun here?

    These are the same Iranian officials who told the media that:

    They were destroying Israel
    Destroying the US bases in the ME
    Overwhelming the Israeli air defenses
    Struck the Israeli defense HQ
    Would strike America if the US entered their airspace
    etc....

    Come back in 6 hours and see Khomeini's declaration that Israel has given in to their might and agreed to a ceasefire while they negotiate the end of the failed Jewish state. 

  5. 1 minute ago, boilerhorn said:

    You offend sponges and toddlers in a single sentence.  

    Why wait 6 hours for an official cease fire?

    Because Israel already has planes currently doing air strikes before this was announced.

    Once started, you have to set window for it to stop. I don't like it because more bombs = more death, but once Israel has entered Iranian airspace for another round, you can't expect either side to just stop. I would have hoped that this was something that would have been worked out before they left, but once committed to Iranian airspace, it is a disaster waiting to happen to try to call them back or to expect Iran not to target them while they are in the air. It is better to let things play out one last time than to try to wave them off mid mission and have someone on either side not get the message and have it break down all over again. 

     

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  6. 21 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

    I find it a little hard to believe that over the course of a week since the war started, with air superiority, the Israelis just watched the Iranian's back up trucks to Fordrow and load it up with an unidentified cargo and drive away. Or the US overhead satellites feeding intelligence to the IDF. 

    My guess is that every truck for the last month or more has been tracked via satellite (and knowing Mossad via on the ground GPS locators as well), and they already have a solid idea of where it may be stored as a backup.

    The real problem is that we are talking about is at most a few hundred kilograms of enriched material, so tracking it is more problematic than just burying it under the rubble.

    The only way to get Iran to try to transport out of Fordow was to make it so that getting hit was imminent. Now what is interesting is was the timing of the Guam flight was done on purpose, knowing the Iranian evacuation plan for an impending US strike? Is it better to bury the current enriched uranium deep under Fordow and hope no one can recover it, collapse it near the surface (and therefore need boots on the ground to recover it) or get them to transport it and capture it either in route or at another location. 

    I think Israel and the US were hoping the very visible head-fake of the B2 flight heading to Guam got Iran to stage whatever they had left in the facilities in the transport tunnels waiting to depart in the morning, which instead got struck at 2 am local time. That puts it reachable with some work, but easily policed by air to make sure it "stays put" by not allowing any re-excavation until the time that either there is a regime change, a deal in place that requires that material to be recovered and turned over under US/Israeli supervision, or Israeli boots on the ground.

     

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