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Posts posted by Laxtonto
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Just now, bolverk said:
I’m no security analyst or foreign affairs expert, but I would think taking out the "Supreme Leader" of Iran would be a bridge too far, even for the Israelis. The blowback on toppling a Head of State could be far-reaching and difficult to predict.
I could be wrong, of course, as I was not anticipating they’d kill upwards of 50,000 or so Gazans.
Normally, I would agree because of the regional aspect would make all the rest of the ME be forced to go after Israel. Now, I am not so sure. Saudi is signalling they want more normalized relationships with Israel and the long-standing Arab vs. Persian (Shia vs Sunni) rivalry has always made Saudi/Iran unlikely bedfellows. If Israel is promising a move back to the prior Irian monarchy will be the result and with it an end of the headaches caused by the Iranian proxy wars, I could see several of the ME countries signing off.
My guess is that it is more going to be a classic "color revolution" that will be pushed by others in the ME after Israel neutralizes the Iranian military's ability to commit to mass reprisals.
As an interesting datapoint in all of this, Iran has cut off all internet access to the country.
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2 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:
Interested to see what the story is here
That top one has to Mossad disinfo to try and stir up a further purge in the Quds. If this is actually true, I have no words for the level embarrassment this would be for the Iranian security forces. Also, if this is true, how is the ayatollah still alive? This level of access would would mean that Israel would have backdoor access to the political leadership movements and would be one of the few people that would be expected to have access to the ayatollah at all times.
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Some quick things that should now be obvious that people don't seem to really accepting:
Big Picture
1. Yesterday was day 61 from when the current administration told Iran they needed a deal in 60 days. All of the other news surrounding the U.S. being against the attacks are just theater.
2. If it hasn't been figured out, this was all worked out during the ME trip recently and greenlit as a contingency if Iran did not come to terms.
3. Saudi, Jordan, and Quatar are all at worst allowing this to happen with Saudi being the most active providing help on the fringes.
4. Of the proxies out there that generally bend over backwards to help Iran, only the Yemen Houthies have been vocal about it. Lebanon went out of their way to publicly muzzle Hezbolah regarding providing support to Iran. Note that so far the Houthies have only denounced Israel without mentioning the US.
Iran/Israel conflict itself
1. Israel has operational control of the skies over Iran and has since the prior set of attacks in Oct 2024. It was rumored to be much more successful vs the current Iranian AD systems that being reported, but it is now obvious that Iran now can not stop the Israeli air force.
2. Israel has been on the ground in Iran for weeks. The level of infiltration by the Mossad in Iran is something that is being understated. It was a scary wakeup call for Iran when they killed Ismail Haniyeh in July of 2024 in Tehran, but the level of infiltration is well beyond what anyone suspected.
3. Many of the targets hit were obviously being surveilled right until impact and the number assets needed to do something at this scale is a feat that is very hard to achieve with this level of success. What is more subtle about all of this is that some these assets must still active as they have been used for secondary decapitation strikes, such as the strike on the Iranian AF command. The only way you can pull off that level of strike after the initial element of surprise is over is by having boots on the ground.
4. Isreal set up and used a similar drone swarm "carrier" approach that Ukraine used to target pre-identified Ballistic missile stockpile and launcher. The Israel intel has been so complete that there is little doubt it came from within. Now, whether was it acquired or given to Mossad is going to be a point on contention, but there is no way this number of targets were acquired, identified, and then equipped with some type of homing/target acquisition beacon could have been done through just basic visual/sigint/sat work. This is probably the most subtle point that is going to get glossed over, but the failure of information security within Iran is the only way some of these targets could ever be identified and being that the variety of easily mobile targets destroyed is so high, this failure has to be complete on a variety of systems, across a variety intelligence/military silos, with support from human assets that work within these silos.
5. Mossad is fucking scary...
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Urgent | Israeli Army Radio, citing a Mossad source: The list of assassinated leaders is long and unprecedented.
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The reports about lack of action and defensive response may be tied to they have nobody to give them orders and not sure how to proceed...
Didn't help that after their last President died in the heli crash, there was a large internal purge in the maneuvering to find his replacement (who is sounds like is now dead anyways)...
This led to a hollowing of that next level down and so we are now having even "newer" personnel in charge now that probably arent as nuanced in thier understanding on what options they have as a response..
Much like with the beepers, Israel cut the head off the snake, and the military response is suffering from the lack of leadership.
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Natanz was always a secret location that the Iranians wouldn’t open up.
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5 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:
wow. This and the pager deal. Just, wow.
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Looks like Mossad just keeps knowing where everyone is all the time...
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Get ready for the melt...
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aggy is going to melt...
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Damn...
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4 minutes ago, LebongJames said:
Kenny Baker out there recruiting.
I got a feeling Kenny Baker might have been a great under the radar hire that people are going to look back at and go WTF were we thinking with their negative takes...
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3 minutes ago, Macanudo said:
That's exactly what Nicole wants law enforcement to think.
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Their backchannelling for a head coach failed because they had what sounds like a short list of 3 and one was unrealistic, one said no, and one looks like he is going to MSU….
instead of being reasonable and having a real process they are instead going to make the same mistake as last time and let the pipedream of Early keeping the core via NIL and player “development” win the day.
How many of their big “stars” are returning? Who thinks they will be able to now moneywhip players from the portal to choose A&M and Early in particular to be their last stop before the MLB draft?Last year they could sell hope and the illusion of the unknown. Now they have the specter of being swept by Mizzou and the dark cloud of almost firing their HC hang over their heads…
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That run is coming up pretty big now....
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1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:
Holy shit youre soft if you think that was malicious
I don't like how soft baseball has become, but those are rules now.
You got to atleast try to mask it. Just like the various hard slide rules into 2nd base now. It is not the game we grew up with, but it is the game these kids have been around forever.
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Bigger deal is that Aroz is also out tomorrow now...
Israel vs everyone war thread
in Daily Texan
Posted
Here is a big one...
I say this because now Israel is in visible negotiations with Iran regarding their response and now put the Iranian oil fields on the table as a viable target.
The fact that so far this has only been explicit military/nuclear capability targets is probably more restraint than expected, and now Israel is openly dictating the terms of what is a viable response if the current leadership wants to stay in power long-term. The destruction of the Iranian refineries on Kharg Island would essentially destroy all oil/natural gas export capabilities of Iran and their only real avenue for hard currency.
Can Iran be restrained in their response while saving enough face to keep their proxies in line? I am guessing no, and Israel torches only a portion of the infrastructure of the Khuzestan Basin at the start and tells OPEC to get Iran in line or they are going to hit Kharg Island. That is the real jewel economically for Iran and OPEC will either have to demand Iran to play ball or Iran gets economically neutered and most of the major players in the ME no longer have a financial reason to put up with their bullshit.