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Laxtonto

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Laxtonto

  1. Here is a big one... 

    I say this because now Israel is in visible negotiations with Iran regarding their response and now put the Iranian oil fields on the table as a viable target. 

    The fact that so far this has only been explicit military/nuclear capability targets is probably more restraint than expected, and now Israel is openly dictating the terms of what is a viable response if the current leadership wants to stay in power long-term. The destruction of the Iranian refineries on Kharg Island would essentially destroy all oil/natural gas export capabilities of Iran and their only real avenue for hard currency. 

    Can Iran be restrained in their response while saving enough face to keep their proxies in line? I am guessing no, and Israel torches only a portion of the infrastructure of the Khuzestan Basin at the start and tells OPEC to get Iran in line or they are going to hit Kharg Island. That is the real jewel economically for Iran and OPEC will either have to demand Iran to play ball or Iran gets economically neutered and most of the major players in the ME no longer have a financial reason to put up with their bullshit. 

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  2. Just now, bolverk said:

     

    I’m no security analyst or foreign affairs expert, but I would think taking out the "Supreme Leader" of Iran would be a bridge too far, even for the Israelis. The blowback on toppling a Head of State could be far-reaching and difficult to predict.

    I could be wrong, of course, as I was not anticipating they’d kill upwards of 50,000 or so Gazans.

    Normally, I would agree because of the regional aspect would make all the rest of the ME be forced to go after Israel. Now, I am not so sure. Saudi is signalling they want more normalized relationships with Israel and the long-standing Arab vs. Persian (Shia vs Sunni) rivalry has always made Saudi/Iran unlikely bedfellows. If Israel is promising a move back to the prior Irian monarchy will be the result and with it an end of the headaches caused by the Iranian proxy wars, I could see several of the ME countries signing off.

    My guess is that it is more going to be a classic "color revolution" that will be pushed by others in the ME after Israel neutralizes the Iranian military's ability to commit to mass reprisals. 

    As an interesting datapoint in all of this, Iran has cut off all internet access to the country. 

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  3. 2 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

    Interested to see what the story is here

    That top one has to Mossad disinfo to try and stir up a further purge in the Quds. If this is actually true, I have no words for the level embarrassment this would be for the Iranian security forces. Also, if this is true, how is the ayatollah still alive? This level of access would would mean that Israel would have backdoor access to the political leadership movements and would be one of the few people that would be expected to have access to the ayatollah at all times. 

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  4. The reports about lack of action and defensive response may be tied to they have nobody to give them orders and not sure how to proceed...

    Didn't help that after their last President died in the heli crash, there was a large internal purge in the maneuvering to find his replacement (who is sounds like is now dead anyways)... 

    This led to a hollowing of that next level down and so we are now having even "newer" personnel in charge now that probably arent as nuanced in thier understanding on what options they have as a response.. 

     

    Much like with the beepers, Israel cut the head off the snake, and the military response is suffering from the lack of leadership. 

  5. Their backchannelling for a head coach failed because they had what sounds like a short list of 3 and one was unrealistic, one said no, and one looks like he is going to MSU….

    instead of being reasonable and having a real process they are instead going to make the same mistake as last time and let the pipedream of Early keeping the core via NIL and player “development” win the day.
    How many of their big “stars” are returning?  Who thinks they will be able to now moneywhip players from the portal to choose A&M and Early in particular to be their last stop before the MLB draft?

    Last year they could sell hope and the  illusion of the unknown. Now they have the specter of being swept by Mizzou and the dark cloud of almost firing their HC hang over their heads…

    shame.gif.dbc3f2cf9fcc3799c4cbbbbcbea0f3aa.gif 

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  6. 1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

    Holy shit youre soft if you think that was malicious

    I don't like how soft baseball has become, but those are rules now.

    You got to atleast try to mask it. Just like the various hard slide rules into 2nd base now. It is not the game we grew up with, but it is the game these kids have been around forever.

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