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Laxtonto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Laxtonto

  1. Is there anyone left in the portal we are still after? Seems like all quite...
  2. This has devolved into a bloody static war that will grind on and on. Ukraine is running out of troops. That is math. Russia is already deep into its reserves regarding equipment and has decimated their NCO and young officer core. Russia is almost to the point that they are going to have to make hard decisions regarding the North Caucasus's and the other far-flung satellite states. They cannot "govern" by force in these outlying regions while also heavily conscripting from there for the front lines. Russia is trying to balance not conscripting heavily from the "ethnic Russians", which is unpopular, while not upsetting the satellites by wiping out an entire generation of men as fodder. This is a recipe for political unrest and Russia knows this. They have "access" to manpower, but each year the political cost becomes that much greater, and they are one misstep from having another Chechen War-style headache far from Moscow. With China and Iran not able/no longer willing to provide drones and high-tech munitions, and most of the Arab world not wanting to get involved with "Russia's war" after the fall of Syria and Iran, Russia has limited options other than the continued slow grind on the ground. If Ukraine can begin the target deep behind the Russian lines again with advanced ordnance (and more importantly US intelligence), even the current slow grind by Russia is impossible. So then it becomes, much like the static lines of WWI, where inertia and pointless loss of life were commonplace. Both sides will then need come to the realization that true gains are unlikely and a continued, never-ending drain of political capital is the likely outcome. This announcement should not be a shock after we saw reports of a HIMARS strike to kill the command staff of the 155th brigade in Kursk a few days ago. The only way HIMARS works is if the US allows the systems to target. That is only done with US "supervision" and with full US knowledge and blessing. I would also bet that the intel used to select and find this target was US-generated as well. When was the last time there was a well-publicized HIMARS strike? One in June, hitting a troop convoy, and one in March hitting some helicopters on the ground. This is a whole different level of target and intel needed. This US public proclamation of wanting to send "defensive" weapons goes along with the implied threat from the HIMARS decapitation strikes, and both are there to try to get Putin to get back to the negotiating table. Expect to hear discussions regarding additional sanctions regarding Russia coming from the US State Department as well, if Russia does not "get the hint" to apply even more internal political pressure.
  3. He did stick the landing though...
  4. Andrei Badalov tried to learn to fly from the 17th-floor window in Moscow today. He was unsuccessful in his attempt... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14874875/Oil-tycoon-falls-death-elite-Moscow-apartment-block-mystery-death-Russia.html
  5. I was thinking "baked" but I guess that is an appropriate answer
  6. I think there are like 2ish hours left before it takes effect... Do you really think Iran wasn't going to try and get in a parting shot?
  7. The next big thing to follow in the near future is does SA normalize relations with Israel and sign on to the Abraham Accords. Many argue that is what ultimately set this entire destructive set of events in motion by Iran and it's proxies. The other piece would be how does Qatar leverage being the peacemaker in this scenario. I doubt they are not going to let this fade without gaining some sort of benefit. Also see what happens with the Iranian proxies after this "12 day" war. There is going to be some serious power vacuum issues going on within these proxy groups when Iran can no longer provide the funding or arms that they need to hold sway in their own local regions. There are a lot of people who have not acted locally due to fear based upon the projection of power from Iran. Without it, many old grudges can finally be settled.
  8. You only let the enemy save face if you want them to retain the support of their own populace. I don't think the US is willing to help them in that regard at all. If you think this current regimes "Death to America" stance is going to change if you let them save face, I got a bridge to sell you... All this does is help provide a wedge for more of the population to believe that the current regime is not respected globally and what they report is a lie. The more interesting set of quotes will be what Israel says about Qatar, Iran, and the US when this is all said and done.
  9. Sounds like the deal was brokered w Trump locking in Israel and Qatar talking directly to Tehran. This also makes the comments of the Qatari defense minister blaming Israel for the recent Iranian reprisals on the US bases in Qatar make more sense. I am guessing that the Emir told Tehran that this is their last chance and if they refuse the ceasefire the rest of the ME will support a regime change. Right now, it is only a smoldering issue in the populace, if the other ME countries wanters to fan the flames, it would become inevitable.
  10. These are the same Iranian officials who told the media that: They were destroying Israel Destroying the US bases in the ME Overwhelming the Israeli air defenses Struck the Israeli defense HQ Would strike America if the US entered their airspace etc.... Come back in 6 hours and see Khomeini's declaration that Israel has given in to their might and agreed to a ceasefire while they negotiate the end of the failed Jewish state.
  11. Because Israel already has planes currently doing air strikes before this was announced. Once started, you have to set window for it to stop. I don't like it because more bombs = more death, but once Israel has entered Iranian airspace for another round, you can't expect either side to just stop. I would have hoped that this was something that would have been worked out before they left, but once committed to Iranian airspace, it is a disaster waiting to happen to try to call them back or to expect Iran not to target them while they are in the air. It is better to let things play out one last time than to try to wave them off mid mission and have someone on either side not get the message and have it break down all over again.
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