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happyfunball

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Everything posted by happyfunball

  1. Started selling down in feb/mar All cash maybe mid April
  2. Bloomberg, “name one deal Trump has gotten done” Keep losing your shirts. Glad I’m all cash money
  3. We are likely to win when both countries get bloody.
  4. Wsj had a good article that the trade talks had already fallen apart prior to Trump’s tweets. China won’t agree to the basics for a real change in the relationship.
  5. It is broader than big business interest. This is long term economic and national security that needs to be protected against China’s aggression. The belief that China will change over time with engagement was wrong. Re effectiveness of tariffs: I never believed or argued Trump was intelligent or his approach effective. His approach has been terrible and yet to be seen if it will be effective. With that said, he is the first administration that has actually confronted the China threat instead of burying their heads in the sand.
  6. China has a shortage of USD already. Not likely to happen.
  7. There has been some pretty egregious ways a number of PE firms have been calculating returns.
  8. Businesses have complained privately for years of theft and issues with China but won’t say publicly because of the profit. Businesses can’t get past their short-term which is why the government must enact policies to protect US long term interests.
  9. Beijing is going to wait until the next administration and hope it is Biden since he is sympathetic to China
  10. Internal politics still exist PM sent
  11. This isn’t an issue as trump’s tweets regarding tariffs are being censored in China.
  12. Direct confrontation is the only way the relationship will change. I don’t believe trump will “win” the trade war. I’d expect this is a multi-year negotiations that could easily span multiple administrations. Working through multi-lateralism wasn’t working. This will force companies to move operations out of China.
  13. Stick to your Russian gate - you aren’t helpful in these threads.
  14. My focus past few years has been cross border M&A so I have a strong view. The TPP was shit but what Trump negotiated unilaterally was less than what the TPP was promising so he achieved less. With that said, I don’t disagree with blowing up TPP et al as these weren’t making changes that were needed but what Trump achieved was actually worse what was already agreed upon. Agree with this strategy but his results were shit.
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