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Voldemort86

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Posts posted by Voldemort86

  1. 22 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

    A lot of experts are rightly pointing out that a lot of these people were day-of voters in 2014, but the really good thing we're at least seeing in Georgia hold is that ~30% of voters did not vote in 2014.

    So are we back to thinking heller survives?

     

    that would be a big letdown.

  2. I think there’s a debate between Gillum and Detrumpis tonight on CNN. I hope Gillum is ready because Detrumpis is going to try and make him look like a “scary” far left radical. Hopefully he has a good answer prepared for wanting to impeach President trump because that’s probably his most controversial viewpoint.

  3. 11 hours ago, retread said:

     

    They should’ve given the middle class a “huge” tax cut during their tax cuts for the rich scam. I’d hope most people who don’t make over 200K a year are intelligent enough to know they got fucked.

  4. 5 minutes ago, RayDog said:

    I prefer to think of it in terms of Republicans have to win ND, TN, and TX to hold a 50-50 majority. I like the odds of the Democrats winning at least one of those races.

    I know it’s pathetic, but I’m not even thinking about the majority in the senate at this point. I think it’s long gone. I’m hoping 52R-48D is the worst we can do. 

     

    ND and TX seem locked up for repubs. It’s hard to get a read on Tennessee, but they seem pretty loyal to trump. Florida might get worse because of cue ball rick Scott being plastered on everyone’s tv with his stupid navy hat helping hurricane victims. Mccaskill is in the fight of her life in Missouri. I think sinema is behind in Arizona. Thankfully, we have received good news in Nevada tonight that one was looking bad before the voting #’s came in. The Dems just need to fight like hell this year and suffer no worse than 52-48 minority. They would have 2 really good opportunities to flip the senate in 2020 and 2022 because of the map. 

     

    Gotta get the freaking house tho to put the breaks on trumps hateful agenda and get as many governorships / statehouses as possible to undue some extremely terrible gerrymanders in favor of the GOP. I think we can win a lot of it, but just need to get enough to slow down trump.

  5. On the senate front, 

     

    indiana and Montana are holding up surprisingly well as of this moment. Repubs can’t seem to crack Donnelly and tester. Heitkamp , Beto, and Bredesen are probably goners, but sinema, mccaskill, and Nelson are hanging tough.

  6. 46 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    high Clark county turnout is bad for Heller. 

    Is Clark county Las Vegas?

    ive been following this election cycle very closely because I want to see trump lose so badly. I remember when I looked at the Nevada primary numbers earlier this year,  the vote totals for Rosen and the Republican side of the ticket were very close overall, but Hellers Republican opponent took a lot of votes from him in Las Vegas.

  7. 2 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

     

    Is it really that good tho? I mean hasn’t the unemployment rate been going on a downward trajectory for the last 5+ years even before trump took office?

  8. 36 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

    *sigh*

     

    That’s pretty sad. That lazy eyed freak has several indictments against him. It sucks that Abbott is on the ballot this year. Some people were hoping repubs would see he’s up by 20 and they’d skip voting, but I guess that was just wishful thinking. 

     

    Abbott is going to load all of the undesirable repubs ( indictment Paxton, potty Patrick, and repulsive Cruz) on to his back and literally wheel them across the finish line. I’m crossing my fingers that we get at least one house seat.

  9. 51 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

    Im curious about everyones viewpoint on the early voting numbers and more importantly declared affiliations and turnouts.

    Every time I see a state brought up, it seems like Rs are real close to their 2016 turnout numbers (and well above their 2014 numbers) while the Ds are lagging behind significantly their 2016 #s and more interesting slightly behind their 2014 #s.

    Historically the Ds have done very well with the early vote. If they do not, what does that mean? Is the Ds enthusiasm a mirage? Do we think that they will instead all show up on Nov 6th?

    If this type of early voting trend continues, it would be a major hit to the Democrats.

    Right now as an example NC

    Any thoughts? Any ideas of what is going on?

    It’s still early.

    still over 2 weeks to go. Wait for more data.

  10. 7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Nate Cohn just tweeted that their polling shows Democrats with a one-point edge in competitive districts where whites are more than 85% of the electorate but.... Republicans are +3 in diverse, Sun Belt districts. None of that makes sense to me.

    It seems abundantly clear that Hispanics are extending a huge middle finger to the Democratic Party this cycle. A lot of house races that should be sewn up for the Dems are competitive and in doubt. Look at Florida for instance.

    do Hispanics actually like turning on their TVs and hearing the president call people they might be related to “rapists and bad hombres”. It makes me think that they just hate politics in general or they’re a bunch of hypocrities who enjoy “pulling the ladder up” either way it makes no sense to me at all. Very disappointing.

  11. 18 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

    Not many yard signs for either Hurd or Cruz, although Cruz has some.  Jones has a decent amount but we haven't been in the part of town they're running.

    Beto has signs everywhere, even in the Republican leaning parts of town.

    The Hurd race has been one of the weirdest ones of the cycle. That district is huge ( land wise) and filled with primarily Hispanics. It seems unlikely that they would constantly go to the polls every 2 years and elect a dorky moderate black guy, but it continues to happen every single cycle. I don’t live near that district at all and I don’t understand why it seems so safe for Hurd, but I wouldn’t get your hopes up on this one.

    i live in Fort Worth and I’ve been seeing so many Ads attacking Pete Sessions who isn’t even in my district. The guy sucks and I’m glad they’re going after him, but I’m skeptical that the Dems are going to even pickup one seat in the house from Texas. The house most likely still flips tho.

  12. I did a quick google search and was able to find. 

    https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2018/10/18/tennessee-early-voting-turnout-massive-midterms-approaches-presidential-level/1683568002/ - Tennessee 

    https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/turnout-soars-the-first-day-early-voting-georgia/LDzDZ7TrzQjqtFSascOJ5M/ - Georgia 

    https://www.kshb.com/news/political/kansas-early-voting-numbers-to-surpass-last-midterm-in-2014 - Kansas

     

    early voting numbers are WAY WAY up. The pessimist in me is worrying about the dreaded “kavanaugh” effect, but I don’t see why a bunch of Dems yelling at a Supreme Court nominee would hype up repubs. 

     

    I guess i’ll look at the numbers as a good sign tho. The old rule is low turnout = good for repub and high turnout = good for Dems. 

  13. RCP house map is starting to look a little better. 

    Race changes over the last week :

    IL14  leans GOP to tossup

    NV3 leans dem to tossup

    NJ11 tossup to leans dem

    NC13 leans GOP to tossup

    KS03 tossup to leans dem

    FL15 safe GOP to likely GOP

    AKAL safe GOP to likely GOP

    FL15 Likely GOP to tossup.

     

    current outlook

    206 Dem - 198 Repub with 31 tossups. With the democrats massive money advantage, if the Dems can advertise like crazy and hammer the GOP for voting to try and take away coverage for pre-existing conditions, I think the map will expand and our odds will improve. Healthcare, healthcare, healthcare.  

    • Like 1
  14. On the governor front.....

     

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412051-second-former-gop-governor-backs-dem-over-kobach#comment-4151341291

    all living former governors in Kansas ( repubs) have endorsed democrat Laura Kelly in the Kansas governor race. The only exception is the WORST governor in Kansas history Sam Brownback who has backed Kris Kobach. I doubt it matters in the end because there is an independent on the ballot to siphon votes from Kelly and Kobach ( similar to kemp in Georgia) is actually in charge of the votes. Talk about a conflict of interest!

  15. 7 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

    Don't be surprised if Hugin wins.  There will be a lot of voters who vote Dem in those House races and vote for Hugin.  There will be 0 voters who vote GOP House and Menendez.  When that happens, the Dem machine has nobody to blame but themselves.  Hillary won NJ by 13.2 percentage points.  Given the fact that Trump is way less popular now, a generic Dem candidate would win the NJ Senate seat by 15 to 20.

    Do you live in New Jersey and follow their politics?

     

    how many house seats do you think the Dems win in that state?

  16. 1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

    Kyle Kondik has a pretty expansive "State of the Race" House column for Crystal Ball today.

    TL;DR is they see D's picking up 17 seats at a minimum, with multiple potential avenues to get the additional 6 needed for a majority.

    http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-drive-for-25-an-updated-seat-by-seat-analysis-of-the-democrats-quest-in-the-house/

     

    So the floor is 212 for the Dems?  I doubt the repubs could get Obamacare repeal through with a 6 seat majority. Hopefully the worst case scenario doesn’t happen, but if it does, it looks like we would take enough seats to prevent trump from passing any of his psychotic legislation. 

     

    Remember, they passed Obamacare repeal the first time around with over 240+ repubs in the house and they only got 217 votes to pass it. Good luck with that in 2019 schmucks.

  17. Non partisan cook political report moves 2 house races towards the democrats today 

    Ohio 12 - Troy Balderson is struggling to put away Danny o’connor. Race moved from lean R to toss up.

    new York 11 - Democrat is doing better than expected, but still a tough race to win. Moves from likely R to lean R.

     

    Hope to see a lot more races move towards the Dems over the next few weeks. The repubs really haven’t done anything to prove they deserve keeping their house majority. Cutting taxes for the rich shouldn’t get them more seats.

  18. 1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

    I strongly suspect he's going to delay the state elections in order to separate himself from the Governor's race.

    And would buy detrumpis more time to gain on Gillum whose led in every poll. 

    If I had a choice, I’d want to win the governor race more than the senate seat. It’s such a pivotal swing state. Dems haven’t had a governor in Florida since 1999

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