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Voldemort86

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Posts posted by Voldemort86

  1. 6 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

     

    I honestly don’t know what to think of those numbers. Good or bad? I don’t see why Georgians would be excited about voting for a guy who points shotguns at teenagers, but then again I don’t live there.

  2. 41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


    Irrelevant when you live here:

    0173481744a545e371fbcc8fcd2748a7.jpg

    Certain states will remain under GOP control. The SCOTUS will be conservative. The Voting Rights Act is dead. Free elections in GOP states are not going to happen. Ever.

    Can they really suppress the vote that much?  If you’re over 18, a citizen, and have no criminal record it’s not very difficult to get registered to vote. 

  3. Good news guys

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

    the 538 house model predicts the democrats have an 85% chance of retaking the house. Most democrats including myself figured the kavanaugh effect would be isolated to the senate races and it looks like that is the case. There’s still more time for the kavanaugh buzz to wane. Cross your fingers!

    ill be very curious to see if cook and sabato have race rating changes this week in favor of the Dems. I’d like for the house to be a highly likely flip by election night so I don’t have to worry about it. This is still significant tho. We saw the first good round of polling yesterday since the kavanaugh bullshit.

  4. 14 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

     

    🤣

    did that come up in their debate tonight?  I think mcstinky would be a terrible Senator. She’s voted with trump over 97% of the time. She would be a brainless rubber stamp. I hope Arizona picks the independent, strong, and intelligent candidate who thinks for herself, but I doubt it.

  5. 1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

    That and R enthusiasm was already high in 2016 and even 2014. Even if it is theoretically up slightly, it is nothing in a relative sense compared to what we're seeing from Ds and independents. Combined with the declining party ID you point out it is clear that there is no red wave coming. Ds know exactly the targets they need to hit and if they GOTV in competitive races they can clean up.

    The big question is who are independents supporting this year? They broke trumps way in 2016. I think the comey investigation really messed things up for Clinton and drove a stake through the democrats enthusiasm. It makes people pause and rethink their vote when the FBI comes out right before an election and pretty much says “we’re investigating ..... because we think she’s a criminal!”.

    independents and late deciders usually side with the party out of power and I haven’t seen anything from the repubs in congress to make me think they deserve to be re-elected. What have they really done besides fail to kill Obamacare( thank god) and pass a tax cut for the rich / big business bill? 

  6. It’s simple really

     

    repubs know that their policies aren’t popular so they try to manipulate the voting pool. They’re trying to make the people who actually do show up to the polls as old, white, and nasty looking as possible. If that continues to happen, they will keep on winning. 

  7. 8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    I fucking love watching these Republicans get called out over and over for this ACA lawsuit 

     

    They’re being a bunch of pussies about it.

     

    They fully support their lawsuit and want the courts to kill Obamacare, but at the same time, the repubs say that they fully support protections for pre-existing conditions. Anyone who believes them is a total moron. Remember all of the shity healthcare plans they put forth that would’ve led to over 25 million people losing insurance on average? 

    What a bunch spineless, gutless, turds...... either go all in and say Obamacare should be killed or don’t bother at all. There is and shouldn’t be a middle ground. Anyone with half a brain should’ve realized by now that the repubs can’t fix healthcare. The Dems need to hammer them on this repeatedly. Over and over and over.... all over the country.

    I hope Scott “ pond scum” walker goes down hard.

    • Like 3
  8. 1 hour ago, RayDog said:

    I have been watching the posts on the Kavanaugh thread as a gauge of Republican excitement over his nomination. The thread is pretty dead with 3 weeks to go. 

    By election day I think the Republicans will lose almost the entire enthusiasm bump that came out of the hearings.

    Let’s hope you’re right.

    i think hurricane Michael has been dominating the news ( rightfully so) it sucks that a devastating hurricane had to hit Florida, but at least people aren’t really talking about Kavanaugh anymore. I’m glad texas has to wait another 7 days to start voting. Hopefully some repubs won’t be as angry and motivated. Beto probably won’t win, but I was hoping to see Pete Sessions or culberson lose. 

  9. 1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:

    Said it before somewhere here, but there are clearly enough people who would vote for her, it's all a matter of turnout and a proper election being ran. I don't think there will be a runoff either, I think someone will outright win it on November 6th.

    Isn’t there a 3rd party candidate whose expecting to get roughly 5% of the vote? 

     

  10. 50 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

    We're trying my dude. I'm sure you've seen all the underhandedness going on in the Voter Suppression thread, but I think turnout will be at a much higher level than the last midterms.

    It would be a victory to even force a run off. Nobody can win with a plurality in Georgia. As we saw in Alabama, if the election comes up at a weird time, the democrats can win. I know Brian kemp isn’t a pedofile tho ( probably), but he still points shot guns at teenagers.

  11. Thankfully after the Kavanaugh shit show, most experts still think Dems will pick up between 20-40 seats in the house.

    538 gives the Dems about an 80% chance of control. The map looks good on cook political report too. Election Day is still about 3 weeks away so some of the Kavanaugh buzz should fade for repubs. I’m not worried about dem enthusiasm, we’ve been pissed and waiting on this election for 2 years.

    • Like 1
  12. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

     

    ok...

     

    im starting to think that RCP is Republican biased. Their current “ house map” says 205 democrat with 201 Republican, but 

    All of these seats are in the toss up column? Repubs have already pulled out of KS03 advertising. They are very close to giving up on PA-07 where they’re behind. They’re not advertising in Michigan 08.  Roskam is definitely trailing in IL-06.  They really could move at least 4 seats toward the democrats to make it 209-201, but for some reason they’re not. Could they be trying to help repubs get momentum ?

     

  13. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/12/gop-democratic-record-fundraising-response-898162

     

    Republicans in the house are struggling because for the first time in forever the democrats are out fund raising and out spending them. The GOP is accustomed to having the money advantage, but it looks that won’t be the case this time.

    However, that creepy Sheldon Adelson guy has already chipped in over $100 million for the repubs this cycle. 

     

  14. 4 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

    Fuck you Dana you russian spy prick. 

    That Mimi Walters bitch is the worst one of them all.

     

    at least rorhabacher is a big supporter of marijuana reform. How the hell can walters ( or anyone) be a member of congress from California when she’s against weed reform, voted to kill Obamacare, and voted for the crappy tax cut scam. I really hope they vote her ass out.

  15. 51 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

    It’s a “deplorables” level video. Not gonna end well for her. Not sure why anybody is really defending it honestly. 

    It reminds me of the mitt Romney video in 2012 where he said something like 47% of the country is worthless and depends on the government. 

     

    I think sinema’s fate is sealed. It kind of sucks because I think Mcsally is a bitch

  16. 21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    If Democrats can keep the GOP from picking up more than 2, they are in great shape in 2020. They have 2 great pickups in CO and ME, plus Arizona special, NC, GA and IA 

    You’re right.

     

    i don’t have any delusions about taking the senate this year. Dems should just hope to keep it as close as possible.  I’d consider 52-48 Republican majority a victory, 53-47 is ok,  if the repubs get 54 or 55 seats its a disaster tho. We might be shut out of taking the senate for awhile. Hopefully McConnell doesn’t last much longer then 2020, I hate that guy. I’m not hoping he dies, just something comes up that forces him to resign or retire.

  17. 5 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

    FWIW, the 25 days out projections from various polling nerds:

    538: 230/205 D House (77.5% chance to take control). 52-48 GOP Senate (82% chance to retain control.)

    Harry Enten (CNN, former 538): 227-208 D House. 52-48 GOP Senate.

    Elliot Morris (Economist): 224-211 D House. 

    All seem reasonable to me. I think D's likely pick up a good number of house seats in traditionally-D or swing areas that went Trump-y in 2016 (Upper Midwest, Northeast, VA, CA) but GOP will squeak out enough 2-3 point wins in the lean-R seats in red areas to keep it from being a total blowout. GOP probably defends most of their turf in the Senate and knocks off 1-2 red-state Dems. D's also pick up several governorships. 

    Rancorous gridlock in DC until 2020. The next 2 years make the last 2 seem calm by comparison. POTUS continues to spend every day of the next 24 months as a festering national cancer. Goes into 2020 election with <=40% approval rating and still wins somehow b/c D's totally fuck up nomination.

    I’m down......

     

    even if we take a beating in the senate ( looks like we might). As long as we win a bunch of state seats, governorships, and take back the house, I’d still consider this a good election. 

     

    Don’t get discouraged by the bad numbers for senate democrats in Nevada, Texas, Tennessee, and Arizona. We still have a lot to fight for and (hopefully) win. I want to see trump and his administration lose their enablers in the house. These guys need to be throughly investigated, My only concern is I don’t want the democrats to over do it and turnoff the American people.

  18. 4 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

     


    Not a snowflake. You’re the snowflake.

    Alright enough of this topic derail. Back to the matter at hand. Brian Kemp is fuuuuucking up his run for governor in Georgia. The primaries were entertaining enough because the anointed one (Lt Gov Casey Cagle) went with a Hillary-esque “it’s his turn” approach and also got busted lying on tape about supporting issues he disagreed with if it was politically advantageous. So he lost to Brian “Shotgun Goofball” Kemp who went with the full gun-totin immigrant-hatin’ approach and it worked. In the primary at least.

    The problem is now he’s up against a black female democrat who has kept her cool for the most part, and he’s massively mishandling a bunch of last minute voter registrations because, get this, for some reason we allow Secretaries of State to stay in office while they run for governor. So Abrams submits 53,000 new voter registrations which Kemp calls “sloppy paperwork” and he has frozen their processing. Now technically those people can still vote with a provisional ballot, so it’s a little disingenuous to say Kemp is stopping those people from voting. But A) they came from his opponent, B) they are 70% black, and C) there is absolutely precedent in other states for those provisional ballots to be lost in the shuffle.

    What a dumbass! He had an opportunity to do the right thing here and instead played right into his opponent’s hands. Twitter and the media are screaming that Kemp is a racist who is denying tens of thousands their right to vote in a tight race.

    There are two Georgias: Atlanta metro and everywhere else. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abrams win. Interestingly, Georgia’s current and previous governors were Republicans but after that you have to go back to 1872 to find another R in that seat.

     

    I think Abrams is going to surprise us all and do well. It will be very close. 

     

    With that said, in Georgia you have to win with over 50% of the vote. It keeps going to a runoff if that doesn’t happen. I’m expecting at least one runoff between abrams and kemp. I bet kemp wins 55-45 in the end.

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