
Voldemort86
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Posts posted by Voldemort86
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7 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:
Don't be surprised if Hugin wins. There will be a lot of voters who vote Dem in those House races and vote for Hugin. There will be 0 voters who vote GOP House and Menendez. When that happens, the Dem machine has nobody to blame but themselves. Hillary won NJ by 13.2 percentage points. Given the fact that Trump is way less popular now, a generic Dem candidate would win the NJ Senate seat by 15 to 20.
Do you live in New Jersey and follow their politics?
how many house seats do you think the Dems win in that state?
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1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:
Kyle Kondik has a pretty expansive "State of the Race" House column for Crystal Ball today.
TL;DR is they see D's picking up 17 seats at a minimum, with multiple potential avenues to get the additional 6 needed for a majority.
So the floor is 212 for the Dems? I doubt the repubs could get Obamacare repeal through with a 6 seat majority. Hopefully the worst case scenario doesn’t happen, but if it does, it looks like we would take enough seats to prevent trump from passing any of his psychotic legislation.
Remember, they passed Obamacare repeal the first time around with over 240+ repubs in the house and they only got 217 votes to pass it. Good luck with that in 2019 schmucks.
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3 hours ago, Js1 said:
Poor Republicans. They have it so hard.
WOMP WOMP
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36 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:
Comstock is screwed.
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Non partisan cook political report moves 2 house races towards the democrats today
Ohio 12 - Troy Balderson is struggling to put away Danny o’connor. Race moved from lean R to toss up.
new York 11 - Democrat is doing better than expected, but still a tough race to win. Moves from likely R to lean R.
Hope to see a lot more races move towards the Dems over the next few weeks. The repubs really haven’t done anything to prove they deserve keeping their house majority. Cutting taxes for the rich shouldn’t get them more seats.
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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:
I strongly suspect he's going to delay the state elections in order to separate himself from the Governor's race.
And would buy detrumpis more time to gain on Gillum whose led in every poll.
If I had a choice, I’d want to win the governor race more than the senate seat. It’s such a pivotal swing state. Dems haven’t had a governor in Florida since 1999
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this article makes me think the repubs are going to use hurricane Michael aftermath to cheat in Florida somehow. Rick Scott is so shady and a terrible candidate. He’s even gone against the will of the people in Florida several times. I’m baffled as to how the guy keeps winning elections over there.
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No statewide vote on the bathroom bill in Texas? Don’t they want to know what Texans really think on that issue?
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1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:
Huh? Higher turnout always helps Dems. You think more black voters are coming out to vote for someone who is actively trying to suppress their vote?
I was focusing on the increased white turnout.
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6 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:
I honestly don’t know what to think of those numbers. Good or bad? I don’t see why Georgians would be excited about voting for a guy who points shotguns at teenagers, but then again I don’t live there.
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Trump tells AP he won’t accept blame if GOP loses the house.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-tells-ap-hes-not-221553318.html
trump is an embarassing 70 year old manchild. If something happening is good, he’s there to try and take credit. If something happening is bad, he’s always the first one to say it’s not his fault.
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Another fun article to read about the repubs and their house majority.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/democrats-republicans-fundraising-midterms-908825
is there anyway the repubs can copy this campaign financing infrastructure? I know they usually rely on their daddy Sheldon Adelson. I hate that guy so much and I’m glad he’s 85. Hopefully he won’t be a factor anymore soon.
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27 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:
That’s funny....
brat knows that he sucks and everyone hates him. His only hope is to “scare” his constituents into voting for him.
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41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:
Can they really suppress the vote that much? If you’re over 18, a citizen, and have no criminal record it’s not very difficult to get registered to vote.
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Good news guys
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo
the 538 house model predicts the democrats have an 85% chance of retaking the house. Most democrats including myself figured the kavanaugh effect would be isolated to the senate races and it looks like that is the case. There’s still more time for the kavanaugh buzz to wane. Cross your fingers!
ill be very curious to see if cook and sabato have race rating changes this week in favor of the Dems. I’d like for the house to be a highly likely flip by election night so I don’t have to worry about it. This is still significant tho. We saw the first good round of polling yesterday since the kavanaugh bullshit.
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14 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:
🤣
did that come up in their debate tonight? I think mcstinky would be a terrible Senator. She’s voted with trump over 97% of the time. She would be a brainless rubber stamp. I hope Arizona picks the independent, strong, and intelligent candidate who thinks for herself, but I doubt it.
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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:
That and R enthusiasm was already high in 2016 and even 2014. Even if it is theoretically up slightly, it is nothing in a relative sense compared to what we're seeing from Ds and independents. Combined with the declining party ID you point out it is clear that there is no red wave coming. Ds know exactly the targets they need to hit and if they GOTV in competitive races they can clean up.
The big question is who are independents supporting this year? They broke trumps way in 2016. I think the comey investigation really messed things up for Clinton and drove a stake through the democrats enthusiasm. It makes people pause and rethink their vote when the FBI comes out right before an election and pretty much says “we’re investigating ..... because we think she’s a criminal!”.
independents and late deciders usually side with the party out of power and I haven’t seen anything from the repubs in congress to make me think they deserve to be re-elected. What have they really done besides fail to kill Obamacare( thank god) and pass a tax cut for the rich / big business bill?
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It’s simple really
repubs know that their policies aren’t popular so they try to manipulate the voting pool. They’re trying to make the people who actually do show up to the polls as old, white, and nasty looking as possible. If that continues to happen, they will keep on winning.
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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:
I fucking love watching these Republicans get called out over and over for this ACA lawsuit
They’re being a bunch of pussies about it.
They fully support their lawsuit and want the courts to kill Obamacare, but at the same time, the repubs say that they fully support protections for pre-existing conditions. Anyone who believes them is a total moron. Remember all of the shity healthcare plans they put forth that would’ve led to over 25 million people losing insurance on average?
What a bunch spineless, gutless, turds...... either go all in and say Obamacare should be killed or don’t bother at all. There is and shouldn’t be a middle ground. Anyone with half a brain should’ve realized by now that the repubs can’t fix healthcare. The Dems need to hammer them on this repeatedly. Over and over and over.... all over the country.
I hope Scott “ pond scum” walker goes down hard.
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1 hour ago, RayDog said:
I have been watching the posts on the Kavanaugh thread as a gauge of Republican excitement over his nomination. The thread is pretty dead with 3 weeks to go.
By election day I think the Republicans will lose almost the entire enthusiasm bump that came out of the hearings.
Let’s hope you’re right.
i think hurricane Michael has been dominating the news ( rightfully so) it sucks that a devastating hurricane had to hit Florida, but at least people aren’t really talking about Kavanaugh anymore. I’m glad texas has to wait another 7 days to start voting. Hopefully some repubs won’t be as angry and motivated. Beto probably won’t win, but I was hoping to see Pete Sessions or culberson lose.
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1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:
Said it before somewhere here, but there are clearly enough people who would vote for her, it's all a matter of turnout and a proper election being ran. I don't think there will be a runoff either, I think someone will outright win it on November 6th.
Isn’t there a 3rd party candidate whose expecting to get roughly 5% of the vote?
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50 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:
We're trying my dude. I'm sure you've seen all the underhandedness going on in the Voter Suppression thread, but I think turnout will be at a much higher level than the last midterms.
It would be a victory to even force a run off. Nobody can win with a plurality in Georgia. As we saw in Alabama, if the election comes up at a weird time, the democrats can win. I know Brian kemp isn’t a pedofile tho ( probably), but he still points shot guns at teenagers.
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Thankfully after the Kavanaugh shit show, most experts still think Dems will pick up between 20-40 seats in the house.
538 gives the Dems about an 80% chance of control. The map looks good on cook political report too. Election Day is still about 3 weeks away so some of the Kavanaugh buzz should fade for repubs. I’m not worried about dem enthusiasm, we’ve been pissed and waiting on this election for 2 years.
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
ok...
im starting to think that RCP is Republican biased. Their current “ house map” says 205 democrat with 201 Republican, but
All of these seats are in the toss up column? Repubs have already pulled out of KS03 advertising. They are very close to giving up on PA-07 where they’re behind. They’re not advertising in Michigan 08. Roskam is definitely trailing in IL-06. They really could move at least 4 seats toward the democrats to make it 209-201, but for some reason they’re not. Could they be trying to help repubs get momentum ?
2018 - Elections and Trends
in Cloak Room
Posted
On the governor front.....
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412051-second-former-gop-governor-backs-dem-over-kobach#comment-4151341291
all living former governors in Kansas ( repubs) have endorsed democrat Laura Kelly in the Kansas governor race. The only exception is the WORST governor in Kansas history Sam Brownback who has backed Kris Kobach. I doubt it matters in the end because there is an independent on the ballot to siphon votes from Kelly and Kobach ( similar to kemp in Georgia) is actually in charge of the votes. Talk about a conflict of interest!