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blutow

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Everything posted by blutow

  1. Wasn't a slaughter, but he's certainly a sick fuck on many levels...
  2. From the calm of Lake Travis (before tomorrow's storm in Arlington) - FIGHT
  3. The clearest path is FSU (or Mich) losing and then it makes zero difference what the outcome of the PAC12 game is. You could even argue it's better for Washington to win in that scenario if there were concerns about a another 1 loss team in the mix (even though a 1 loss non-champ would almost certainly be out).
  4. Let's hope Louisville comes in motivated. I haven't seen them play this year, but they have won some games. If they win, they will be losing a cut of the $6m conference payout the ACC would have received w/ FSU making the playoffs.
  5. It keeps coming back to "best team" vs. "most deserving team". FSU is clearly not one of the 4 best teams without their QB, but very deserving as an undefeated P5 champ. I could live with the committee putting a priority over "deserving" over "best" (or the other way around), but it's maddening that they have no consistency from team to team. Oregon is clearly the least deserving of the 1 loss teams, but the committee views them as the best. I can live with that, Oregon has won the eye test. But if you want to use "best" as the main criteria, it should be applied to all contenders and FSU should be out.
  6. With the exception of the Pirate back in the day, I think I'd have to rank Gundy as my favorite Big 12 coaching personality. And he's a solid coach. That said, fuck him this weekend.
  7. Yep. Sure, there is some extra drama when a single game can knock you out of the running, but that's not a good thing for the sport. Having more teams/fans in the running means more people care about more games (especially late in the year). With Texas still in the mix, that had me watching all kinds of games I'd normally never tune into. How this bowl system and then 2-4 team playoff thing has persisted so long is hard to wrap your head around. Billions of $'s lost that can never be recouped.
  8. It's ironic that the majority of Texas fans seem to be thinking this way while the majority of Bama fans are thinking Bama is out under this scenario. Everyone seems pretty sure that they are doomed. This is exactly where I'm at. The committee is certainly dreading this scenario more than any other, but I think they would lean Texas unless Bama looked really good and Texas looked bad in wins. Most of the models lean Texas in this scenario and most of the media is saying Texas in this scenario. It might be delusional and it's far from certain, but it seems like the most common line of thinking (even from the Bama/SEC homers). I think the ESPN model has this right, it's around 60% chance Texas gets in over Bama in this situation.
  9. I think it's more likely undefeated FSU slides than 1 loss Oregon, but I don't think either is happening in that scenario. More likely Bama or Texas gets screwed (which I see as a toss up). FSU is the clear outlier in the top 8 after losing their QB.
  10. Besides the entertainment and $'s associated with a big game early in the season, I think it does make the team better (which hopefully increases the odds of winning the "easier" conference games the rest of the year). Kids/coaches are more motivated over the spring/summer when you know you have an early game with Bama/Michigan/Etc.. Playing a good team early can also highlight deficiencies that a cupcake may not expose. With the 12 team playoff, I think these games make more sense going forward than they have historically.
  11. and Georgia also has a game to win to keep their spot.
  12. The only thing the tOUS ranking indicates is that our chances of jumping champ Oregon are close to zero. There is no situation where tOSU is still in front of a conference champ on Sunday unless that champ is OKstate, Iowa, or Louisville (none of which will have a playoff spot). It's just to ensure tOSU gets the spot if all choas breaks loose.
  13. Um no... The best case for a non-champ (georgia) has already be laid out well earlier in this thread and it's pretty clear there is no case or precedent that would put them in over a Texas, Oregon, Bama. With a committee making decisions at their whim, I'm not one of the people saying it's not possible, just that the chance of that happening is much smaller than chance of us benefitting from Bama/Oregon winning. It's been beat to death, but non-champs with same records as champs have never gotten a spot, even when the champ has a much worse resume (which would not be the case if comparing Texas to Georgia or Washington).
  14. It's hard to wrap my head around it, but there are still folks thinking a 1 loss non-champ is a threat to a 1 loss champ. I don't know how to respond to that line of thinking other than hoping they aren't making the financial decisions for their families.
  15. McElroy was basically making the point that it's never been about picking the best 4 teams and he used Ohio state (in a previous year) as an example. It was beautiful and Galloway about lost his shit. Best teams vs. deserving teams has always been a weird balancing act and has never been applied consistently. FSU will likely make it in because they deserve it, but Oregon is getting a boost because they are perceived as a better team than Texas.
  16. The only way your view makes any sense is if you believe that there is a higher probability of a 1 loss non-champ Washington jumping a 1 loss texas champ (basically zero chance) vs. the probability of 1 loss Texas champ jumping a 1 loss Oregon champ (small, but greater than zero). Everything is possible with people being involved, but that's a really bad take if that's what you are saying.
  17. Because there is zero chance of us beating out 13-0 washington for a spot. It's unlikely at this point we jump 12-1 Oregon based on the committee love for them, but it's a greater than zero chance and an argument could be made. Oregon winning increases our odds vs Washington winning. It's pretty simple.
  18. As far as game watching - I'll be pulling for Oregon Friday night (even if we don't have a shot at jumping them, I'd rather play them vs. Washington in the playoffs) Saturday AM - Pulling for Texas Saturday Afternoon - pulling for Bama Saturday Night - Pulling for Louisville and Iowa We are way, way overdue for some upsets in these top teams this season. Odds are very good that at least one will happen. As long as it's not Washington or OSU, we'll have a shot. There would be nothing sweeter than Iowa over Michigan (a guy can dream).
  19. Yeah, the committee has had plenty of chances to jump Alabama over Texas while we were struggling a bit and Bama had some good wins during that stretch. That isn't 100% guarantee a CCG win over Georgia doesn't tip the scale, but they clearly haven't forgotten about the head to head. The dialog I've heard consistently that Texas goes in over Bama based on head to head (even from Bama homers), but then in the next sentence they say the SEC champ deserves to go. Unprecedented conflict, I don't think anyone knows for sure what the committee does with that. I think Texas is the less controversial pick, but that may not mean anything to the committee
  20. Either way, I just hope they play a better game than Florida did last week. FSU tried to lose that game multiple times, but Florida would have no part of it. That shit was hard to watch. Undisciplined, stupid football. I was just thinking how thankful I was Napier isn't our coach.
  21. It's not crazy (like Iowa over Mich), but still only around ~25% chance based on the odds. But there is a better chance Bama wins over Georgia. As much as everyone is doom and gloom, Texas still has a decent shot. If you believe ESPN's predictor (which looks reasonable to me), we are sitting at about 50/50 shot of making playoffs (near 100% if FSU loses and still a decent shot if Bama wins). Texas chances are actually not that much lower than Georgia's chances, but Georgia controls their destiny.
  22. Agreed, but the order of the games is wrong on Saturday. Conflicted interests while watching the SEC game.
  23. I was thinking about that angle as well, but I believe the Oregon love is too strong. I expected them to put tOSU at #5 this week in front of all the one loss teams. The fact that they elevated Oregon above and kept Texas and Bama below is telling. If Bama wins, we get the spot (based on head to head) or Bama gets the spot (because Bama/SEC and recency of win over Georgia). Most of the predictors I've seen basically makes the scenario a coin toss (ie - nobody knows how the committee would deal with it, it's totally unprecedented).
  24. Hard disagree that a Georgia non-champ gets in. Much more likely that we pass up Bama if they win and get that spot. Nothing is guaranteed, but the chance of SEC being excluded is much higher than the chance of them putting 2 in with a non-champ. It's been beat to death in this thread, but all the times a one loss non-champ has made it was when there were no 1 loss champs in play.
  25. The only new thing we learned tonight is that there is no situation where we jump Oregon. The rest of it is business as usual. FSU loss and we're in. Bama win and we have a good shot.
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