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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Pretty clearly in my mind. I’m always ahead of the curve on this stuff and occasionally wrong. Don’t think I am here though.
  2. 28-31 huh? Brave brave brave. We would have beaten Michigan by that if we had wanted to. Really out on a limb there doctor.
  3. 2 scrimmages in a row.4 if you count at Michigan and CSU. We should get Quinn the Heisman and Arch enough time to be Honorable Mention all conference. The SEC meat grinder myth the Ags sell looks pretty absurd today. aggy sucks. OU is mid. Arky is blah. Kentucky, Vandy, Mississippi State and Florida all have pulled the bookshelves down on top of themselves this year. I’m incredibly unimpressed with our new conference mates so far.
  4. Don’t be vaginas. We win this game easily. We are really good.
  5. What a wonderful week of football. All eyes on Texas and we dominated. Quinn Ewers looks like a Heisman guy. This team is pretty clearly the best at Texas since 2005. Notre dame lost to a directional school. A week after beating aggy at home. So- it’s a 2-fer in schadenfreude. OU almost lost to UH, the same UH team that lost by 20 to UNLV week one. Arky lost. And got their heart ripped out doing so. The rest of our schedule (outside Georgia) is ass and my suspicion is Texas and Georgia will play 3 times to determine the 1 seed, SEC champ and College football champ. This season has been about as good as it gets so far. UTSA on the docket. We thought they might have an outside chance at the playoffs. Now, that’s might be Texas State instead after last week. PHD candidate at QB for UTSA is gone, and what was a frisky team won’t likely even be a speed bump. Arch plays a lot. We score 50 something. We allow 0-10 or something. Avoid injuries and get ready for the epic battle the next week against ULM. The SEC really needs to go to 9 games. Bunch of big talking cowards. Oh well. UTSA game week thoughts here. Hook Em high like an Eagle soars.
  6. I laughed at him before the game started.
  7. Contest closed. May the odds be always in your favor.
  8. Charlie strong kick off both halves strategy imo.
  9. Rusty Shackleford is good people.
  10. That’s justice.
  11. I meant actual gambling, but yeah that works too.
  12. That jobs report wasn't a mixed bag is was putrid. The expectation was low and missed by double digit percentage and the last two months were revised down by 89k. That brings total revisions for the year through 8 months to 365,000 which means that over 20% of the jobs originally reported NEVER happened. There is something fundamentally broken (either through intentions or incompetence) going on with the BLS and it's all coming through the birth/death model in small business. Which you can see as it's constantly at odds with ADP. JOLTS on Wednesday was revised down and at lowest level since 2009 (excluding covid b/c it's insane not to). Quit rate is lowest since 2014. Hire rate is low. To the extent that unemployment went down from 4.3% to 4.2% it is nothing more than people giving up working. I took a strong position at polymarket on 50 bip rate cut when it was trading at 16% (like 2 weeks ago). It's now at 35%. 5 of the last 6 initial cuts were 50 bips. I don't see any particular reason why this is different. I'm selling everything over my initial investment so that's all I have at play right now so I'm in the black already and can't lose, but I expect to ride this all the way to 100 or 0. I think it's 50 but who knows. I'd also buy futures at 3, 4 & 5 rate cuts for the year which you can get at 28, 25 and 21 respectively right now. If any of those hit that's a profit. Gun to my head I'd be on 4, but I think 5 is more likely than 3. They call every 25 bips a rate cut in the market- so if it goes 50 bips on 9/18 they will call that 2 rate cuts. Put another way- they have 3 meetings left- I absolutely believe they will cut at all 3 of them. My guess would be 2, 1, 1 for 4, but I could see 1,1,1 or 2,1,2 if the bottom really falls out between here and there. my bet is 10-12 cuts between here and the end of this economic cycle, but I don't think you can actually bet on that.
  13. Yessir. Was pretty excited to see I can do that on a conventional with a 5 as the front handle. It's finally working!
  14. On a standard conventional loan (national average- 6.38%) with $7000 going to cover all closing costs including interest? Not high at all. We making 95 bips on that deal.
  15. Just Locked someone on a free loan where we pay all their closing costs on a conventional at 5.875. He wanted that over lowest rate which would have been 5.5. National average is at 6.38% right now. That's the lowest it's been in a couple years- I believe. My two favorite seasons are Football season and refinance season. Pretty sure they are both here now.
  16. Jake meyers goes on paternity leave and we get our asses kicked by a reds team that had been circling the drain for a month. Bring back Jake! mostly kidding. I did wonder if he’d have gotten to that ball in the first. That might have made a difference. Or, not having any one of a bunch of other bullshit errors that led to runs and extra batters and extra pitches etc. Need one tomorrow for mental health of fans. Another A’s walk off over the mariners tonight would also be fun.
  17. It’s truly amazing.
  18. Be happy to help you on that.
  19. Lose tiebreaker to Yankees. Win over Baltimore and Cleveland. It’s not decided yet with Cleveland but if we got 2-1 we win tiebreaker. We ain’t chasing them down if we don’t go at least 2-1 against them.
  20. 7 in the loss column sir. It’s September. Get your shit together!
  21. The fact that you are able to beclown yourself, over and over and over again, in so many different threads is truly astounding. Never change "someone that watches football". Bond says- hello with my 25 yard run. Nibblett says- hello with 12 yards on the ground. Ha haha hahaha.
  22. Everyone who got within 10 yards- there were a lot. 2 people nailed it exactly at277 yards: @Nueces River Rat and @DFW Horn take a bow. Nueces is a little closer on the score prediction so going to say he pulled out the win. Lots of good guesses.
  23. This one actually gets the bronze I think. 3 points off on the margin and 11 on the total edges out all the 52-10 who were 10 points off on the margin and 10 points off on the total. silver medal was still 52-5.
  24. @conVINCEd with the clear win. 52-5 not bad at all for second place. Then a ton of people had the game more or less right at 52-10 and honored here. Only pay the winner but like to give a little shout out to everyone that's close.
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