Jump to content

Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
  • Posts

    18398
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Posts posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. 13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Responsible for a lot of people -- my family, my elderly parents, keeping a lot of folks employed and working at my business, and I'm an empath.  So I worry about and for plenty of other folks -- we're friends with various folks in the restaurant business, people who work in the hotel industry, wedding industry....all of whom are taking a beating and have no idea what their lives will look like when this is over.

    So, this fucking sucks shit through a straw.  Worry and stress have been my constant companions.  And even my blessing (having lots of work to do) is a curse, as I don't even have that much time to unwind.  

    We ARE walking the dog for an hour+ each evening, so the physical activity and fresh air is nice.  But this just isn't offering any real "take a deep breath" time for me.  I will take a deep breath when are on the other side.

    So I’ve been seeing a therapist for about a year and one of the main things I’m dealing with and working through is my anxiety level. I understand what you are talking about as I have a stay at home wife- 3 little kids- 10 people that work for me in my two small businesses etc and so forth. I got to where I couldn’t sleep with the anxiety and worried I would fuck it all up. 

    This has been a blessing for my mental health. My anxiety was brought on by “what if I fuck something up and go under” but I’m rational enough to recognize if I go under because of a global pandemic there’s really not anything I can do about that- so I focus not on what could go wrong but making best decisions I can to take what today brings to me, and then worry about tomorrow tomorrow. That’s been really helpful in controlling my anxiety and living in the moment. 

    • Like 2
  2. 2 hours ago, Gladeite said:

    I hear a lot of talk in the industry about appraisals and assumptions/statements.  Probably going to exterior only inspections/2055s very soon.  Appraisals to include statements that estimate of value does not take into consideration the effect of Covid-19 since there is no market data available to demonstrate any significant change in value.  I know there are talks going on w/ FNMA/FHLMC, BofA, Wells, Citi, etc... about purchasing mortgages during this time period.  Underwriting will require re-verifying employment/income before closing.

    When the dust settles in 30 to 60 days, there will be a dramatic shift in demand/supply.  Demand will go down and supply will linger/grow.  Prices will drop.  To what, I have no idea and if I knew, I would be famous and not perusing Surly message boards.  Best guess is immediate 10%, languishing to 20-25% over the rest of the year.  Every segment will be hit.  

    This seems reasonable to me. 

  3. 18 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

    The privilege we have as a demographic on this site is showing on this thread.

    Sure. It absolutely is. I’m not going to apologize for that as I can’t see any benefit from agonizing over all the misery this is causing less fortunate while I’m under shut down. I’m not being flippant here or minimizing others suffering- it’s real- it’s awful- it will get worse. 

    Every time I go out to the store to get something (like 3 or 4 trips outside my house in 2 weeks is all I’ve done) I try to practice as many acts of kindness as I can (buying groceries for others / giving money to the cashier and bagger stuff like that) but beyond that there’s nothing I can do. I’ve got two small businesses and if they come through this I will be financially invested in helping rebuild my local community and doing what I can- but for now all I can sit and do is make the best of this and enjoy what pleasures come my way. And be thankful for my blessings. And try to share that outlook with others. Because thinking about and worrying about things outside of your control or ability to help with is corrosive to the soul imo. 

    • Like 2
  4. 11 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

    Really depends but I think more can survive than some think if rent is taken out of the picture. They do not to get rid of middle managers and higher hourly/salary employees.

    Correct. This won’t kill them in and of itself- it’s the fall out and aftermath that will be brutal. 

    Also, the restaurant business is hard and exhausting. The average restaurant doesn’t see its 3rd birthday because it’s so hard. This will be the last straw for a bunch of people to cash in their chips. 

  5. 1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    I’m admittedly a dumb on the restaurant business. Could most successful places come back with rent forgiveness + very low interest loans from the government? 

    In a perfect world yes- but their margins are so small that they literally need every customer possible. My guess, when things start back up, is that economic hardship and lingering fear of catching the disease will keep 30-50 percent of the customer base out of the restaurant and that’s a slow bleed they absolutely cannot afford. 

    But yeah- if demand went back to 100% of what it was?  Sure,  no real problem. 80%?  Doors stay open and it’s a break even or sow bleed proposition. 70% or less?  Not a chance. 

    The strongest should survive and consolidate as competitors will go out of business. But the total number of restaurants- even with rent abatement and loans, is probably going down big time in the short term. 

    My uncle was a restauranteur and my parents owned a restaurant that I did books and planning for. So I talked to lots of people about best practices and did a lot

    of learning. I’m not an expert in this business but I’ve had a lot of exposure to it. 

    • Like 1
  6. My 4 YO plays here comes the spider his name is MR pickles and runs her dingers over my arm and neck.  It’s pure joy for me- like all is right in the world and nothing can ever be bad. The game ends with me tickling her and her laughing. We now do this 10 times a day, seemingly, instead of once a week. 

    Ive instituted movie night now with my kids. We fall asleep in the study watching late night movies (9-11- their normal bedtime is 8:30 for the big two). I watched PS I love you with my daughter and we both cried and cuddled, the boy and I watched infinity wars- that blew his mind. 

    It really has been amazing and wonderful for our family. It’s a slow down button that we’ve pushed that gets us off the treadmill and enjoying each other in a way that getting up at 6:00 am to get ready for school and swim, scouts and church doesn’t allow for. 

    When I think about the old and sick people that will die I’m very sad. When I think about the scared, poor and marginal people that don’t know where their next meal is coming from my heart breaks. When I think about losing trillions of dollars in economic activity I get pretty frightened. But, when you are shut in you have the choice on what you consume- and if you don’t watch/listen you can put it out of your mind 

    • Like 2
  7. 2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

    No.  Even when I’m able to get the anxiety to subside, the 4 year old and 1.5 year old are fucking relentless.  There are positives: no rushing to get the kids ready for daycare,  some quality time with them.  But overall this has been hell.  
     

    Now, if I didn’t have kids, I would be LOVING this.  Reduced focus on work, the wife and I home alone for a month?  Bring that shit on.  But alas...

    Hang in there brother. The 4 YO can be a bit of a pain in the ass but the 7 and 9 year old are mostly fun and can misty wipe their own ass 

    You are in the absolute worst of it and probably will be for another 2 or 2.5 years. That sounds like a long time but it isn’t. In a couple years the clouds are going to let the sun will come out and it will be like angels singing. Seriously someone would have to put a gun to my head to send me back to the time when I had a 4 year old and 1.5 YO. It’s awful. 

    • Like 1
  8. 3 hours ago, SwanderedTalent said:

    I seek out news sources that flatter me as a truth-seeker, confirm my worst fears, and lay the blame on people I already distrust and dislike. So, even though I'm descending into borderline sociopathology where anyone who doesn't tell me what I already think seems like a non-person, I get a real rush out of feeling like there are "sides" to this thing and my side is rational and blameless. 

    It's a nifty bit of faux self-actualization, pointing fingers at other passengers on a sinking boat. I love it, if we get through this I hope something even worse happens (to other people).

    Out of rep. This cracked me up. Yes, lots of people seem to be acting this way. I think if shit actually hits the fan it will be interesting to see if that kind of opinion goes away or not. 

  9. My 7 year old is. He hates school, loves home school, we knock out his school work in about 10 hours a week and he’s having a ball. 

    My 4 year old loves it. She hates when I have to go to work normally and every day now she wakes up and looks at me and says- you don’t have to go to work today- right daddy?  And gets happy when I tell her I’m working from home. 

    9 year old is a little bummed she missed her friends and is saving stuff she does around here project wise to give to her teacher when she goes back. I told her I doubted that happened this school year and she teared up a little while the other two celebrated. 

    It was very sad to have my parents come over and the kids stand across the yard from then and waive instead of doing hugs and kisses. 

    On days I stay off surly and don’t watch TV this thing is actually pretty enjoyable. When it comes to mind by way of what I watch and read the anxiety and sadness come. 

    If I wasn’t an idiot I’d do a poll something like:

    this enforced isolation/ lockdown is:

    a) totally awesome I’ve got a month to Netflix and chill

    B) pretty good as long as I don’t read/watch/think about it

    C) incredibly irritating and making me rethink all my major life decisions

    D) make it stop already before I snap and hurt somebody.  

    • Like 1
  10. Yeah- that make sure you order takeout thing that people are trying to do is a pipe dream that was never going to work. Those guys should all just shut down- they are dead men walking

    Margins on all businesses that are retail in nature are so damn small that none of this shit ever had a chance to work. Thinking otherwise is essentially nothing more than wishful thinking. 

    Retail/hospitality has been kicked in the head over and over and over again- I feel like this is a death knell for it. 

    Every change that’s been coming is going to get exacerbated. I have no idea what comes out of this in the reshuffle but I’m sure, for many, it’s going to be terrifying. 

    • Like 1
    • Fuck You 1
  11. 9 minutes ago, Lobo said:

    Sorry this scenario is giving you nightmare fuel, but just wait until you hear about Covid-19.  That'll really scare you.  

    I'm not suggesting my scenario is the best way to buy a car, yeah there's still something about picking your dream car off the lot and being home with it later that day.  I'm genuinely curious about what percentage of car sales across all price points are truly "spontaneous", like you woke up, decided to buy the wife a new car or whatnot and then were off the lot with payments set up within that same business day.  Anyway, the industry is moving away from the traditional car lot model.  It's much slower to take hold in Texas because of our dealership cartel.  But it'll only be accelerated by Covid-19 and the industry's slow but sure awakening that 30 acres off IH-35 isn't the cheapest way to operate a razor-thin margin business.  They'll be a middle of the road way where you can still get a car that day, or order one later, but the transition has already begun in many other states and this situation will only expand it.  I don't really care either way, just more urban blight built by dipshit developers who think they can convert every abandoned shopping mall and car dealership into a Votec campus at the same cap rate or lower.  The empty storefronts and lots we'll see for the next half decade will take a generation to get rid of.  

    Every vehicle I’ve ever purchased. I recognize I’m not normal but I hate everything about what you described. 

  12. 17 hours ago, Lobo said:

    Might be a good time for them to realize owning and operating 20 acres of prime real estate and maintaining an unnecessarily large inventory, all to project branding so that they can make their real money on financing and the service department isn't the best business model.  Still offer confiscatory in-house financing and overpriced oil changes, but lose the lot.  People know that they want these days when they arrive.  Order them the car, pass along the overhead savings to them, and let them come pick it up when it's ready.  If we can wait 6 weeks for this virus wave to pass, we can wait 6 weeks for the new Accord.    

    This is a horrible idea and I hate everything about it. I figure the future will suck and won’t be what I want as a consumer- so this is probably where we will end up, but I want pick up my shit and drive it off the lot all on the same day. Turning the car buying experience into amazon (which I also don’t do) sounds like my nightmare fuel. 

  13. 3 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

    Theoretically.  But no one is panic selling, and if anything ABOR and HAR numbers are very strong right now.

    Sure, Right now nobody is panic selling. But, wait until unemployment hits double digits, sidelines a bunch of borrowers, and sellers want to access their only net worth in the world. It’s coming, I’m 100% certain. I also think it’s 3-6 months out before we will see appraisals diminish much. 

    You cant have a recession without falling home prices.  there is no way we are dodging a recession.  The question is- when does this start showing up on appraisals?  

     

  14. 1 hour ago, longhornmatt said:

    If he does come to Texas, that roster next year would be a Final Four quality blend of size, athleticism, talent and experience - assuming development under a better coach, that is.   With Shaka it will probably be a good but not elite season followed by the program cratering.  I’m thinking the ceiling is Jeff Capel at OU the year he had Blake Griffin and Willie Warren, or Steve Alford at UCLA when he had Lonzo and 3 other first rounders.   The floor would be ... well about 3 different stacked Texas squads since 2009 that ended up doing jack shit.   Ugh. 

    I hate everything about this post but what I hate the most about it is that there is not a single thing I disagree with here. 

  15. 14 minutes ago, Horns99 said:

    Jumbo 30 yr rate @ 5% ? Was freaking 3.50% 2 weeks ago


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    Welcome to the living nightmare that is trying to be a mortgage guy right now. 

    MBS were up 116 points when I started my call with my production partner at 9:30 or so.  By the time we hung up they'd lost 87 points or something and were down to "up 33" or something.

    I think I'm going to start drinking in the morning now.  

    Before yesterday I'd have said dont worry- we will see it back down to 3.5% in a month or so.  Now?  No idea.  

  16. 1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

    Figure I'll just wait a while.  We have 3.25 w/23 years left on the loan; want a 15 to refi, but unless the interest gets to 2.5 or so, we might as well just pay extra on what we have.

    Depending upon how much you owe might not even make sense then... I personally think 2.5 on a 15 is definitely on the table- but might be months away. 

  17. 1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

    Daughter decided to lock this morning with an option to float down between now and closing if rates drop by 1/4 point or more. The brokers and lenders I talked with felt we will see 2.99 or 3.25 sometime in the next month or two, but given the craziness of rates, daughter just decided to move forward.

    Good time to lock this morning. 

    Fyi tonall out there- you can pretty much always renegotiate. 

  18. 6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

     

    can you explain this in non-mortgage-knowledgable terms? Are rates slated to go up to down over the next few days/weeks? 

    Next few days? Who knows... weeks?   Same answer. Months- I’d guess they almost have to fall. Unless we are going to decouple mortgage from 10 year treasury forever. Which I suppose could happen. 

    Basically when rates fell off a cliff we d n industry hit full capacity and pricing stopped resembling basic fundamentals as we’ve known them because everyone as running at full capacity and redlining operations. 

    At some point in time- the hope is- we see surplus capacity and pricing resembles normal fundamentals again so it behaves in a way we can expect and anticipate and isn’t capricious. 

    The question I was asking Phil is how much he thinks the capacity see is affecting where we are in pricing. 

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...