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DonkeyCigars

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Posts posted by DonkeyCigars

  1. Further the latest data set I could find estimated roughly 10mm community college students in 2018. The "student persistence" rate meaning, continuing with education (for those not graduating) at any higher education was 62.1% (and 54% returned to the same school).

    That means ~38% were either taking a break or dropping out.

    Of course dahobbs was nice enough to show the median cost of a community college, but further investigation reveals the loan amounts to be much higher (due to taking out more to pay for housing, food, etc. as I suggested):

    Of course, community college students have other costs to consider tuition and fees. The College Board estimates that when room and board is taken into account, these students are on the hook for roughly $12,320 per year and after grants and scholarships are taken into account, they owe closer to $8,270.

    So if you took a swag worst case scenario and said, only 50% of the 38% dropped out to never get a degree and you know the data means that 60% of those who dropout within the first two years with less 15 hours and don't earn a degree is 60% and just take 30% of that to be safe:

    18% of 10mm = 1.9mm

    1.9mm * $12,320= $23,408,000,000 (and that is assuming only 1 year when a handful would also have more debt from another year).

    And this is just a back of the napkin exercise to maybe challenge what people like brisket or dahobb won't entertain or think is a significant enough issue, because community college is viewed as cheap. Imagine when adding the real culprits who charge 3x-4x and students drop out, like the for-profit and other schools who will take unprepared warm bodies for the tuition.

  2. 45 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Wow, this post is completely divorced from reality. Seriously, you have no idea what you are talking about and probably shouldn't even have an opinion here. Let me help you:

    "During the 2018 - 2019 school year, the reported tuition at public two-year schools [community college] is an average $3,660."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/12/tuition-at-community-colleges-is-3660-a-year-on-average.html

    Community college isn't driving student loan debt or defaults.

    You're also focused on the wrong problem. You think the issue is that students don't pay their debt. But that isn't the primary problem. The problem is that even for students who do pay their debt, it tends to cripple them for the future by preventing long term investment and delaying milestones like homeownership.

    This is the equivalent of the Office Space "fixing the glitch" bit. You're leaving an entire generation burdened with massive debt because "fuck it." Fixing the issue going forward is great, but we just abandoning everyone else is stupid and, IMHO, immoral.  But perhaps I'm misunderstanding your post. 

    I said this earlier, but I think it's a combination of a) sheer volume combined with b) not finishing a degree or having something to show for the loan you took out. I just googled a few data sets and studies and found one that seems to suggest a relationship, if not exactly a marriage, with reality:

    https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2015/09/28/four-surprising-findings-debt-and-default-among-community-college-students

    Quote

    Community colleges are relatively affordable, and their students tend to borrow less than those who attend other types of institutions. Yet the debt students rack up at community colleges is troubling.

    The reason is that students who attend two-year colleges struggle to repay even small loans, and often default on them, a concern that is reinforced by a new study from one of the sector’s primary trade groups -- the Association of Community College Trustees.

    Just 17 percent of community college students take out federal loans, the report said, which is much less than at four-year public institutions (48 percent), private colleges (60 percent) and for-profits (71 percent). But students who attend community colleges are more likely to default.

    The national default rate for community college students three years after they enter repayment is 20.6 percent

    On one hand, the higher dollar amount you borrow doesn't necessarily mean you will not be able to pay it back:

     

    (1) Students who borrow the least are the most likely to default.

    A growing body of research has found that student loan defaults are concentrated among the millions of students who never earned a degree. Graduates who borrow the most tend to earn the most. But those who take on even a small amount of debt with nothing to show for it face a relatively high risk of defaulting.

    Further, not graduating means you will likely default and here the story also confirms

     

    Almost 90 percent of students who defaulted left college with debt but no degree or certificate, according to the report. And roughly 60 percent of the defaulters were students who earned fewer than 15 college credits. About 26 percent of defaulters earned no credits at all -- the zero-credit-holder group had a default rate of 58 percent. Students who earned up to 15 credits had a default rate of 43 percent.

    In comparison, the report found that students who earned the most credits defaulted at the lowest rates. The default rate for students who earned 61 to 75 college credits -- enough for an associate degree -- was roughly 11 percent.

    The report said fixing this problem won’t be easy, because community colleges have open-door admissions policies. Yet it called for policy solutions that promote “academic preparedness and progression,” while curbing borrowing by students in the earliest stages of enrollment. Also necessary are campuswide, data-driven interventions to help student stay enrolled and complete, according to the report.

     

  3. 44 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

    Community colleges are cheap, and state schools are too (relatively speaking). I believe the biggest culprits here are small (and not so small) mediocre private schools. As an example:

    https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/the-short-list-college/articles/colleges-where-graduates-have-the-most-debt
     

    SCHOOL (STATE)

     

    AVERAGE DEBT LOAD, CLASS OF 2018

     

    PERCENTAGE OF GRADUATING STUDENTS WHO BORROWED

     

    U.S. NEWS RANK AND CATEGORY

                 
    Maine Maritime Academy   $55,644   94   5, Regional Colleges (North)
    Bryant University (RI)   $54,067   70   7, Regional Universities (North)
    Carthage College (WI)   $52,380   79   14 (tie), Regional Colleges (Midwest)
    Mansfield University of Pennsylvania   $52,243   64   164-215, National Liberal Arts Colleges
    Baylor University (TX)   $50,172   52   79 (tie), National Universities
    Union University (TN)   $49,824   67   185 (tie), National Universities
    Texas Christian University   $49,197   35   97 (tie), National Universities
    Quinnipiac University (CT)   $48,544   70   153 (tie), National Universities
    Western New England University (MA)   $46,591   81   218 (tie), National Universities
    The Catholic University of America (DC)   $46,437   69   139 (tie) National Universitie

     

    I don't think so. How many people do you know who flame out of TCU and Baylor? How many kids who are below the median in ability to do work or read at the college level do you think go to these schools? How many first generation college kids go to expensive tier-2 private schools? Probably not many.

    I think where the price tag might be much lower and definitely relatively lower (e.g. Baylor vs. Paul Quinn College or Sam Houston State), the for-profits, the bad schools, the community colleges and the all around indiscriminate schools are the ones students paid and rung up a lot of debt in critical mass due to volume. 

    Obviously neither one of us is proving the case based on proof of data, but based off of hypothesis I disagree with your assertion, I think.

  4. 44 minutes ago, Lobo said:

    After a two year study by CommonBond...#1 indicator that you are likely to default on your student loan?  Not major, not school, not current job, not income level, not where you live, and not credit score.  

    It's whether or not you completed your bachelor's degree/graduated.  There's a reason places list, "Some College" under "Highest Educational Level"  

    Not saying it's good, bad, or indifferent.  But the data is in, and it's not even close.  

    Boom! Home run insight.

    We are talking about this, it seems, largely through the context of those who took out the equivalent of a small mortgage on a house to get some esoteric degree and now works in an entry level job making $45k in an expensive urban city, who wants to have a work-life balance and do things in their youth, while also needing to service massive amounts of debt. At least that's how I hear it framed a lot of the times, but I don't think that is the reality.

    It seems to me the reality is that folks who take out student loan money for 1 or 2 years, at the full pop they can get to cover housing and everything else, and then flame out of school-- they are not incentivized or motivated to pay for something that didn't finish or give them value. Is it any wonder then they walk away? It's like taking out a mortgage for a house, and half-way through building it you get in a fight with the builder and yall can't agree to finish it and so it sits a bunch of wood framing and concrete next to a port-a-john, but you have to make payments on it for 30 years the same as if you got the value to live in it. Of course people aren't going to pay.

    The blame then, it seems, lies squarely on the predatory schools who took advantage of the poor and lower middle class who were unprepared to do college level work and/or complete a degree. All the community colleges, the for-profit colleges, and directional and 3rd and 4th tier schools. The SFA's and ACC's and Southeast Oklahoma Baptist University's and West Governors and U of Phoenix that took money from people knowing they wouldn't get the value for which they were paying and were saddling kids and their cosigning parents with debt. 

    I think if you dug into the data you are going to see a ton of poor, first-generation students who are below the median on aptitude/readiness for college level writing/work who didn't finish and stopped paying.

    If you want to forgive the debt for them, great. But any debt forgiveness there should also come with a federal investigation and charges and punitive pain to the universities who operated in bad faith.

  5. How much is a vaccine going to cost and what about people without insurance?

    Wouldn't it make more sense to have the government make this vaccine free to everyone in the country and maybe the world versus giving every American $800 to spend on chinese plastic junk for Christmas?

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  6. 1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

    Based on this reaction, it's clear you have no idea how incredibly outrageous your conduct and that of your party (and if you're a boomer, your generation) has been. White, conservative boomers were given a fucking paradise that their parents and grandparents fought and bled and died to build (if that sounds crazy to you then do some reading on the labor movement). They were given affordable college, affordable housing, the best infrastructure, all without needing to incur substantial personal debt, but that wasn't enough for them so they dismantled it and sold it for scrap for a little more, and now their children and grandchildren have to fight and bleed and die to rebuild it.

    And after breaking that nice publicly-funded education system they were given, they told us to take out loans if we wanted to go to school and now want to turn around and lecture us for having been dumb enough to listen to them. It's literally absurd.

    We aren't going to agree here, but I do like your opinions in other threads and conversations. Have a great day wildcat my friend! 

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  7. 47 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

    Next person to voice an opinion like this is going to be viciously slandered. I mean it. I'll say some real mean shit about your mom.

    They're not dead. Conservatism as a political force doesn't die anywhere, ever (well, maybe with the exception of early USSR). It's certainly not going to be killed by Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi.

    Right now they're laying the groundwork for a "stab in the back" conspiracy. If we think they're dead and ignore the threat they pose, they'll take the house in 2022 on the back of their refreshed gerrymanders and economic sabotage. They'll have new young-gun "stars" that the media can't help but fawn over, but this time instead of Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor it'll be an actual nazi and a QAnon freak. And then the real awful times will begin.

    I used the "stab in the back" conspiracy analogy a week ago-- we might be thinking more alike then you think! For those unfamiliar, it was thought to be how Hitler was able to gather tailwind and groundswell from the bottom up and how it applies here is that by allowing your loss to look like a non-loss, you can regather your strength and fight back for a round 2. It's exactly why you just execute your enemy when you have the chance, rather than have a WWII or what happened with Reconstruction and Jim Crow (arguably even what we see today): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth

    And I agree with your premise: Conservatism as a political force doesn't die because it's like a zone defense. The zone is the zone is the zone. It's a finite destination, place on the field. It's not like a man to man defense that is fluid and positions on the field change as you chase the man around it.

  8. 1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

    No. That should be done anyway and on its own merits.

    Fuck the "personal responsibility" concern trolling. We've got numerous posts in this thread eloquently stating why that's bullshit and selectively applied to those who don't already have money and power. The overwhelming majority of people with student loan debt, I'm talking like 95% or more, took out that debt because they had no other option and were told they needed a college degree to be able to make it in America. We were exploited and lied to and abused by a system so that a select few worthless shitstain irresponsible pricks could "earn" ungodly sums of money that was wholly incommensurate with the value they added to society.

    We've just spent four years with Donald Trump as president, watching his demon spawn use the United States federal government simultaneously as their own piggy bank and as muscle to extort money from everyone else they could think of. We've spent decades now watching the GOP give trillions of dollars to people who absolutely did nothing to deserve it but already be rich and bribe Republican politicians. We've seen them further rig the system to exploit the powerless at every goddamn turn to give more and more money to the worst people in America, to the point that they've spent months letting a pandemic ravage America so that their donors can snatch up smaller businesses and assets on the cheap. Your party's officials have completely abandoned their most basic duty to protect American lives because their donors realized that even a pandemic could be good for their pockets.

    And suddenly Republicans are concerned about the moral hazard of student loan debt forgiveness? If this was a just country, you and your friends would be terrified about guillotines right now.

    Based off this really weird reaction, I feel like having a reasonable discourse around this is not possible so I'll respectfully bow out now. Good luck out there, friend.

  9. 8 minutes ago, softlynow said:

    Pubs can whinge and whimper about moral hazard all they want. Besides the fact that they've lost the standing to complain about all forms of morality, the game the next few years will be about actually helping people, not corporations, economically. Do that, and Biden will have sturdy coattails in the midterms and a strong case for a second term. Fail to do it, and be prepared for Dem carnage.

    Are you essentially saying that doing nothing for those who sacrificed, did without, and responsibly met their financial obligations on one hand and on the other offering blanket loan forgiveness for people loaded up to the gils with bad debt from expensive and/or for-profit schools, not finishing their programs despite taking loans, or irresponsibly borrowing for low-value career paths is punishment for the Pubs? 

    The above sounds very much like "let the Pubs complain we are doing this anyways and they deserve to eat the poop on this one!"

    That said, I like Biden's loan plan a lot as a start and would also like to see some reform in allowing student loans be discharged through bankruptcy. We can make sensible reform without being ridiculous. 

  10. 1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

    Well, Biden's plan only forgives outstanding debt for people who work in government or nonprofit positions and have been paying off their loans for at least 20 years. It's a woefully inadequate plan, but it certainly doesn't have the "problems" you ascribe to it.

    Yea, I feel like those are really strong verifiers and a great start.

    Would you have a problem in making Loan Forgiveness be a "quick win" by just removing the restriction from allowing student loans to being discharged in bankruptcy? It gives people a way out, but there is sufficient punitive sting, to restart and learn from mistakes potentially.

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  11. 5 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

    This is why I don't make the big bucks as a management consultant, but the answer has to include a win for all parties, and I'm not completely sure how one would do that.

    I come to this problem from the angle that we can forgive loans but we need to be able to pay the folks responsible who paid their loans. Who made the sacrifices and budgeted and did without in order to service their debt as an obligation; maybe a moral one, definitely a legal one, and maybe both. 

    The optics behind it otherwise are damning and dare I say a moral hazard; it appears as if being responsible and prudent is being punished while there is no punishment for being foolish. 

    That said, I think a practical and easy fix for this is to just let Student Loans be included in Bankruptcy.  

    Also I meant to add:

    It's not an apples to apples or effective comparison to say "But, what about the companies that the government bails out!" because that, theoretically, affects all citizens who pay taxes. This is discriminatory by definition in that it helps only the most debt-ridden, whether that debt was not taken and is not being serviced responsibly through unfortunate and legitimate circumstances or through ignorance and foolishness.

  12. This is why I don't make the big bucks as a management consultant, but the answer has to include a win for all parties, and I'm not completely sure how one would do that.

    I come to this problem from the angle that we can forgive loans but we need to be able to pay the folks responsible who paid their loans. Who made the sacrifices and budgeted and did without in order to service their debt as an obligation; maybe a moral one, definitely a legal one, and maybe both. 

    The optics behind it otherwise are damning and dare I say a moral hazard; it appears as if being responsible and prudent is being punished while there is no punishment for being foolish. 

    That said, I think a practical and easy fix for this is to just let Student Loans be included in Bankruptcy.  

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  13. 5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Then...and here's a wacky thought.....YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE INSTALLED SUCH A COMPLETE SHITBAG IN THE MOST POWERFUL OFFICE ON THE MOTHERFUCKING ENTIRE GODDAMNED PLANET.  That's literally the LAST place you would want to install such a horrific, narcissist shitbag.

    Actually, no, it's not.  It NEVER has been.  This doesn't happen, it never has before.  This isn't "politics, baby."  It's fucking national security.  It's a goddamned country going through a pandemic that has already killed a quarter of a million people, physically harmed many more, and crippled our economy.  This isn't just "politics, baby" -- it's fucking LITERALLY a matter of life and death.  So fuck him and anyone who gives him even 1% of a pass for this shit.

    Wake up Brisket: Trump (and the ugly, ugly side of technology) has ushered in a new era of politics. You, of all people, should have resigned to an acknowledgment of what thou eyes have seen and the doom it portends. Isn’t that the talk track?

    But maybe Biden winning was a referendum against that. Jury is still out.

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