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bangkok

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by bangkok

  1. while i agree it would be a good solution, i disagree this is our best policy play as it's purely dependent on chance unless our intelligence is more deeply ingrained there than i'd expect. so our strategy is: send all the support, hope someone assassinates putin? doomed to fail. we want russia to get the fuck out, and give them a reason to do exactly that. let them have their moral victory, internally. whatever, just stop the violence. it's clear the real victory was for ukraine though. no more utter nonsense loss of life. let politics run its course, maybe putin isn't around in 10 years. learn our lessons in the meantime. stop this shit before it gets worse for fucks sake. if you don't, it gets worse.
  2. sure he does but jesus fuck you'd have to be naive to think that's an option for putin, politically speaking. it's not. yes this was a war of aggression, yes it was unjustified. and yes, we need to find a way to end it without escalating it further. so here's the choice: tell ukraine to concede a bit, and we'll bolster their defenses, support their democracy, help rebuild, whatever the fuck they want, but let putin claim (fake) victory too. he got his ass kicked, that's clear to see. but let him walk away and claim success. why the fuck not? so putin's options are either to be given a lifeline, or escalate tremendously. the former is best. give that motherfucker a lifeline, first, for fucks sake.
  3. right, it's bullshit, i agree. but give him an out. let him preach his bullshit to his supporters and let him claim some sort of (fake) victory, before this escalates further. ending the violence should be our goal here, no?
  4. i don't know. that's why i'm asking if there's a legitimate peace offer in the cards here - how can russia claim they liberated those damn oppressed pro-russians living in ukraine from the neo nazis, as their propaganda suggests was the purpose of the invasion. somethings got to give - and we need to look to give putin a less violent, or non-violent out.
  5. no, i'm suggesting an end to the violence is superior to an indefinite supplying of arms to ukraine that would continue the destruction and spur potential escalation. the intelligence comment was referenced towards - that's how we're monitoring how we can avoid "crossing the line." our intelligence determines that line, putins thinking. i'm saying the game of "how far can we go?" inevitebly leads to escalation. why do that, if we can offer a peaceful alternative where both sides can agree to disagree and find support on either spectrum.
  6. i'd hate to see this drag on for months, and it seems to be heading that direction. the longer this continues, the more desperate putin becomes. even the discussion of nukes possibly being used is a discussion that shouldn't be happening. we'll keep sending tons of weapons to ukraine, and that pisses putin off as much as the sanctions do. we'll do everything we can to give ukraine support while closely watching putin's reaction to avoid crossing the line. it's clear we have some intelligence closely tied to the kremlin. but.. is that best? i think we should throw out a lifeline, where both sides can walk away and claim victory or at least a draw, a stalemate, a treaty? how do we do that? a 50km or so demilitarized / peacekeeping zone 50km deep into the ukrainian side of the border. anyone russia wanted to "liberate" can move freely into russia if they choose. no violence within. if you want russian rule, go to that side. if you don't, go to the other side. treaty signed includes no nato for ukraine for some-odd number of years, but no promises either if nato countries further bolster ukrainian defenses or support democracy there. and i'm sure russia would also counter with their own shit like "ok, fine, but no promises from us either and we'll support pro-russia government there and regroup for our next moves too." under the table, of course. kind of a fuck you, yea fuck you too, but lets fuck off for awhile. thats better than status quo from both sides, and russia could walk away claiming they liberated ukraine from the neo nazi's and end most of the sanctions. then putin could propagandize that to the general population and claim success. ukraine would also be able to say they successfully defended themselves and gained alot of support from the west, defensively, politically, and financially. something like that on the cards, or am i an ignorant idiot? tl;dr: can putin be given a face-saving out, and what does that entail? or are we committed to making mad vlad prove he's actually, truly mad and accepting the consequences of that?
  7. likely pilot error here, rather than suicide mission. and part of that is due to chinese culture - immense shame brought on one's family, and even the nation at large if that were the case. so we'd have to expect this suicide act was also one intended to bring shame on family and china.. unlikely. mechanical failure is plausible but also unlikely considering the safety records of the aircraft - and that the pilots should be trained to handle any mechanical issues. the flight path is strange and horrific for the victims. most common cause of most crashes: pilot error.
  8. i do wonder the messaging from putin's side. specifically to the west, what was he trying to convey? as 200k troops amassed it was.. nope, no invasion, while all intel points otherwise. then the quick recognization of luhansk/donetsk. followed by a quick invasion and clear plans for regime change. obviously advancing oustide of the "nazi" areas. followed by an ass-kicking to this point, by most reports. it's ludicrous.
  9. right, i definitely think it would have been loosely supportive of russia at minimum. skeletons in the closet or whatever. and the republicans would have jumped on board with that, sure. i just don't see how he could have bridged the huge support of ukraine from the west while sucking off putin at the same time. would have been quite a dynamic.
  10. in an alternate reality, everything unfolds as it has to this point. only one change - trump is potus. what are the changes in the us reaction, how does trump handle this? obviously there were ties to russian intervention, trump also middling with ukraine and the impeachment following. i'm truly curious how he would have messaged things.
  11. as horrifying as this war has been in its very early days, particularly for civilians in ukraine right now - it's largely an idealogical one. i get that he feels threatened, economically and also militarily if ukraine were to join nato. but i don't really think this is what it's about, ultimately. it's clear putin doesn't give a fuck about civilians and his communication to russians is pure propaganda at its worst. that propaganda wouldn't be necessary from putins standpoint if the threat from ukraine was mostly economic and military (and would probably be viewed as justified in some sense) rather than idealogical. so that's why he needs the messaging to the russian general public, the lies and distortion. he can't just say "you know what, fuck everyone else" and have the general population jump on board. he want's that, though. but it's pretty clear to those outside of russia (and a chunk within), that "fuck everyone else" mindset is abhorrent. so he tries to justify it in whatever way he thinks will bring him more support. ukraine is in the crosshairs, but it's really a war on the west, just as putin said our collective support of ukraine and sanctions was effectively also a declaration of war. i think this is escalating, even if their invasion has been underachieving thus far. it's very dangerous - but clearly, this is about much more than ukraine.
  12. putin pulls out, that's gotta be absolutely humiliating and his grip on power drops as quickly as the ruble has. concessions in the breakaway regions would save some face, but thats not what putins intentions were. and the widespread, unified support of ukraine and condemnation of russia gives them all the negotiating power, they don't need to concede anything. putin either has an A in the deck, or folds.. i'm not seeing a middle-ground here.
  13. absolutely. i'm just concerned putin will act even more recklessly after this exposure. one caveat - i also think this is very premature and there's plenty of russian troops that could potentially turn the tides rather quickly. but, the consequences of his current perception of weakness may not be ideal. it could be devastating for ukraine and other countries seeking peace rather than an embarrassment and diminishing of power for putin. i'm concerned he'll act out, feeling bullied and disregarded or looking for a power-type play, going out with a bang. i do think our intelligence in regards to russia is very strong - we knew this was coming. just as we knew they were fucking with the election(s). and what we as the general public know is obviously much less than our intelligence is informing. so hopefully we'd know if the situation internally within putin's inner circle becomes desperate, and we could respond before something catastrophic occurs. i just wonder what that response may be.
  14. in a worst-case scenario, hypothetically, putin lashes out further, feels cornered or whatever, some hawkish destructive idiot of an advisor suggests pushing the nuke button and putin says ok, fuck it. while this scenario seems very far-fetched, i'd assume we've considered the remote possibility of that unfolding. what's an appropriate response from NATO / the US then? what if it were a chemical weapon or other type of WMD that isn't a nuke, but still causes immense devastation and loss of life?
  15. internationally we're seeing a major rally in support of ukraine. ukraine's defenses and civilians seem to be very engaged and motivated, contrary to russian support and engagement. unconfirmed reports are showing fairly significant losses for russia in the first 3 days. clearly the international community is outraged and that's completely justifiable obviously but - are russian losses overreported? this also seems to be just "warming up" as the vast majority of russian troops have yet to cross into ukraine. i'm curious of putin's internal reaction, thus far. all of the support for ukraine has to be crushing and it seems there are clear miscalculations. i don't think he can accept anything less than an overwhelming "success" here, in his maniacal vision. i hope the huge show of support, fairly impressive resistance (so far), and reports of russian weakness don't encourage him to escalate further. but, i think they will. i'm very concerned the initial reports and international reaction with his fragile ego are counterintuitive and will ultimately be more destructive than if this had gone according to plan.
  16. very delicate situation. i'd like to see a unified response beyond sanctions. well, fuck, no, i wouldn't really like to see it - i just think a strong response here, in unison, is justified. putin is treading on thin ice as it stands.
  17. as an interested outsider, i've done a fair amount of reading and research on this over the last several weeks from different sides, in a meager attempt to have an informed opinion. this shit's going down, unfortunately. the costs will be immense. seems we have solid intel within the russian government and they're not bluffing. i hope we've got plans in place to confront this, of course heavy sanctions are expected, but any outside the box approaches or ideas - i wonder whats on the table, behind the scenes.
  18. 37-17 win here, we control the game throughout. i'm predicting jimmy g inconsistencies, the offense showing their nuts, and the defense capitalizing on those jimmy g jitters. next game though, is going down to the wire.
  19. yes the lakers look like shit. that said, they're going to get their shit together and make a postseason run, tbd how far that goes but it's a high ceiling, low floor. bron will preach overcoming adversity, a new roster, injuries, yadda, yadda.
  20. haha. hahahahaha. i love this, and also hate it in a disgusting sort of way. it‘s so typical and was called out yesterday. what if they found out we actually do fuck livestock? quick, let’s make some shit up! what if they found out we actually are a middling team that would be embarrased by wake? quick, let’s make some shit up! i’d love to play wake with our own portal’d roster and try to get a w.
  21. on the topic of informing players first as riley and kelly both got heat for the manner in which they left.. espn all but confirms cristobal to miami, pending a player meeting. hahaha. i guess this is the new standard. fire coach (or coach leaves), hire new coach, leak to media, “inform players,” confirm new hire. i find the leak to media step ridiculous for some odd reason- why not just inform the players first, then make it public. it’s an unnecessary circus.
  22. absofuckinglutely. part of this scenario is how well sark performs next year and year 3, and how poorly (or better) rhule performs too. perhaps an analyst candidate or one year coordinater is in the cards for saban. then again, should we be interested in hiring another coach with evident question marks? or just offer urban 15mil/yr? i hope sark rights the ship and can’t imagine blowing 3 consecutive hires.
  23. no team has really looked national championship-calibur in the b12 since, like 2010. so it's not surprise that both of these teams are continuing that tradition.
  24. baylors looking ready to blow this lead and ok lite will backdoor into the cfp.
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