It's funny. I remember being terrified as Nebraska crushed us and everyone else by signing practically the entire national team several years ago. We couldn't win any of our recruiting battles against them. That's when we brought in Byrd, Helmers, Tomkinson. Our first choices were taken before the process even really started. Then portal/NIL/Covid year happened and we were able to build an all star team while Nebraska was stuck with mostly high school players. They were crushed in the championship by the Texas freight train in 2023, lost to Penn State in a 5 set nailbiter in 2024, and now they're back badder than ever this year. And next year they'll be loaded for bear as well. But it all started with recruiting dominance.
That's the thing about this sport. You have to win your recruiting battles, either for high school players or the portal. Preferably both. Stanford is a shadow of their previous glory because they're not getting the top 5 talent any more, and they can't accept transfers. You don't have a legitimate shot at the championship if you're anywhere outside the top 3 seed line, and really the #1 seeds have such a competitive advantage, you're sledding uphill even as a #2 or #3 a la Texas in 2023. It's possible, obviously, but man is it difficult. The truth is that was an underachieving team early in the season that finally found their rhythm. Skinner became peak Skinner, and the serving was out of this world.
This is not a sport to be big fans of the underdog, because your hopes and dreams will be crushed. It is a sport where if someone is willing to spend some extra money - a la SMU - it's still at a point where the numbers aren't insane. I believe Kennedy Martin made about $300k this year at Penn State, and that was by far the most of anyone. Nebraska's entire roster is around $1m. That's not including legitimate commercial local endorsements, which they get a bunch. I don't know what Texas is at. Somewhere a little less. Texas players get some good local endorsement opportunities as well, which is a big part of what Elliott tries to sell.
But you got to get the premium players. Get a top seed. And then see where it goes. Nebraska just went on a tear there for a couple of years. It's not like they're doing poorly now in recruiting, but they're not lapping the field any more. Texas has won some battles. Most famously Ames, but Harvey, Spears, Anderson all were top Nebraska targets. They just lost the Puerto Rican phenom Champions to Wisconsin in a rare recruiting defeat to the Badgers. After next year their talent level should be a little closer to the field. Still absurd, but not over the top better than everyone else. The good thing is they lost the last two years, so their dominance is already constrained no matter how well they do this year and next.
I don't know. Maybe they lose this year, too. I just don't see it.