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Ghost of LL

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Ghost of LL

  1. 13 minutes ago, F250 said:

    Because you are hoping for Americans to die in a terrorist attack. That's crazy thinking. I understand the logic but you are expressing the exact thing that you oppose, a lack of empathy.

    He’s also demonstrating a troubling lack of profit motive. 
     

    I mean, how can I figure out how to short the 2025 version of Canter Fitzgerald?

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  2. 1 minute ago, CTC2 said:

    Not watching.  He’s just going to lie and say crazy shit. If he has a stroke or otherwise falls over dead, I’ll catch the postgame coverage. 

    If this were any kind of country, the Democrats would go full Liberatores.

    Et tu, Bernie?

  3. 2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

     

     

     

    I moved about 30% into cash in Feb, and today added to my SPY puts. These were short term (Thur/Fri expiry) in anticipation of President Huff & Puff saying shit tonight that will negatively impact the markets over the next couple of days...shit like increasing tariffs, calling out Ukraine leadership, laying off thousands of federal employees, drill baby drill (which will cost the O&G industry money), crypto prez,  maybe pardoning more criminals. Most of these things will cause stocks to flinch.

    Wait til we get the jobs numbers on Friday.

    Oh, and earnings season is going to be fun.

    We're going to have a shitshow well into 2Q25.

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  4. 3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

    luckily i slide back into bonds a few weeks ago on a lark. 

    You know it's bad when people are even really trying to buy the dip. 

    I also went into bonds about three weeks ago (and actually put the kids' entire 529s into fixed income).  And Thursday I bought a bunch of May puts on SPY at 580, and I gotta tell you--I'm feeling pretty good about that.

    We're going to get numbers starting this Friday that are going to be . . . not good.  And I just don't know how the market is going to react to that.

  5. On 2/16/2025 at 8:28 AM, nnm said:

    So not that different than American aging boomer Harley crowd. Not to be confused with the true biker gang crowd, who will rip your head off and crap down your neck. 

    I don't think there's a company out there that is going to suffer from the extinction of the Boomers quite like Harley Davidson.

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  6. On 2/24/2025 at 1:35 PM, tx 3 putt said:

    ️Massive Oklahoma job loss as 600 federal employees at Tinker Air Force Base will be fired tomorrow
    ️ Tinker is the largest single site employer in Oklahoma

    image.png.f0c2b805cae3eeffc69efb7b070ac91e.png

    Here you go--the election results from Oklahoma County, Oklahoma (where Tinker AFB is sited):

    image.thumb.png.93781c45851e8379d3a4a6d61c68b942.png

    Oklahoma County is about as blue as Oklahoma gets.

    Now you want to really hurt some MAGAts--go after Vance AFB in Garfield County.

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  7. 1 hour ago, NoRagrets said:

    I was pondering that same thing last week. I guess the hesitation is arms manufacturing. We just have the best shit and it’s not even close. 

    Well, I mean--yeah.

    But at the same time, the Europeans have the F-35.  The South Koreans have the F-35.  And it doesn't take just a whole lot to reverse engineer it (and that's assuming Lockheed Martin wouldn't just license it out).

    But beyond air power, I think the Ukraine War has shown that we're facing an entirely different battlefield than the one for which a lot of our best shit was built.  I'm not at all certain that we have the best drones.  And I'm definitely not sure we have the best cyber-security.  And to the extent we presently have the best of either, the state of the art is advancing so quickly that we could easily be surpassed by a new challenger.

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  8. 5 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

    I don't think they'll dissolve NATO, if they do anything, they'll create a European Alliance with similar rules. It's been gaining traction, but who knows if it all talk or not, SuingToGetAMessageBoard is probably right, they'll wait it out:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-germany-election-united-states-donald-trump-nato/

    Germany’s Merz vows ‘independence’ from Trump’s America, warning NATO may soon be dead
    Election winner likens the Trump administration to Putin’s Russia as he bids to take Europe in a new direction.

    “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” Germany's chancellor-in-waiting said. “I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump's statements last week at the latest, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.” 

    And apart from the foreign-policy wisdom of that statement (which I think is non-controversial), there's also an economic justification for it.

    Let's just be real honest right now--the German economy aint looking so great at the moment.  It has been stagnating for roughly a decade.  And a rejection of free trade by the United States and others is going to disproportionately impact Germany, which has an economy that is heavily reliant on manufacturing.

    But therein lies the rub and something the United States figured out a long time ago: a manufacturing-based economy can be boosted by defense spending.  Actually, Germany figured that out a long time ago, too.  We just made them forget it.  But between Thyssenkrupp and Airbus and Rheinmetall, Germany has the industrial base that it can really boost its economy with a significant rearmament program.  And while the SPD would have some real reluctance to do that for historical, ideological, and corruption-al reasons (looking at you, Gerhard Schroeder), the CDU doesn't share that handicap.

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  9. On 2/19/2025 at 4:29 PM, The Dog said:

    Inevitable, and it will expand again. Lots of money being left on the table by not expanding. 

    And please have all first round games on campus. That was amazing.

    FCS playoffs has 24. Gimme more football.

    The insatiable demand for "more football" is why I think CFB is going to become a spring sport as well as a fall sport.  It already kind of is, with the last two rounds of the playoffs crossing into the spring semester.  And it's not like we don't already have other sports that cross from the fall semester into the spring (e.g., basketball).

    Have the regular season go 12 games.  Great.  But build in two bye weeks.  That still puts championship weekend around the second weekend in December.  Bowl games for the teams that didn't make an expanded playoffs.

    And then a four-round playoff starting January 1.  A bye week between each round.  And during those bye weeks, have a series of inter-conference "challenges" for teams that aren't in the playoffs.  That takes you all the way to the beginning of March Madness.

    There's just too much money involved and too much demand for spring football for someone not to provide the supply.  College football would be stupid not to do it.  And I don't believe for a minute that the likes of Greg Sankey are stupid.

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  10. I gotta tell you--I have four close friends or family members who have lost their jobs over the past three weeks.  Even in the depths of the Great Recession, I don't remember anything like that.

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  11. 2 hours ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

    These people do American food better than Americans.  Best egg salad sandwich and fried chicken I’ve had.   

    And that's just at the goddamned 7-11!

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  12. 36 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

    Well, if you want to push the German's and potentially the Poles into seeking to develop Nuclear Weapons, that's certainly one way to bring it to the table. 

    That's the tip of the iceberg.  The South Koreans definitely have to be jonesing for the bomb.  And don't think for a minute that the Japanese are going to sit by and not have a nuclear bomb if the Koreans have it.

    The concept of non-proliferation is dead.  Fucking Armenia will probably have a nuclear weapon by 2030.  I mean, they'd be fools not to.

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  13. 21 hours ago, Bill Brasky said:

    I get that this is the social media world we live in, but goddammit if you are healthy enough to take a video then you are healthy enough to help fellow passengers off the plane 

    I'm not arguing with you.  At the same time, it looks like the FAs and a couple of other pax who were already outside the plane had everything under control and were providing all the assistance anyone needed.  And at that point, aren't passengers coming out of the plane just best served to get the fuck out of the way?

    And in the course of getting the fuck out of the way, they ought to keep their heads on a swivel so they don't get run over by emergency vehicles as happened with the KE 777 that crashed at SFO some years ago.  I don't know that that necessarily means you ought to put your fucking phone away, . . . but yeah--probably a good idea.

     

    In any event, and going to the issue at hand--wind at 270 isn't much of a crosswind when you're landing on Runway 23.  It's a bit of a crosswind, but it shouldn't account for that roll to the right.

  14. 2 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

    4-0 after 2

    Canada-US in the final, barring a miracle in the 3rd.  Tonight's game is completely meaningless.  Just let BC and BU suit up and play tonight...  

    The Stars' Finns sure made it interesting there at the end.

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  15. 1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

    That is what Trump would do.

    Musk would take the deal and then sell it to China.

    Yep--that's exactly how Ukraine should deal with this.  Sign on to whatever deal is needed to meet its immediate needs with absolutely no intention of ever fulfilling its side of the bargain.  Because that's exactly how Trump deals with the world.  So you might as well deal with him on equal terms.

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