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Js1

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Js1

  1. 3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

    Moreover, there’s risk here for the democrats.  If Dr. Ford turns out to be a complete fraud, they will pay a high political price.  

    The democrats have hitched their wagon to the credibility of Dr. Ford.  Do you think they would do that without vetting her allegations or candor?

    It's a federal crime to lie to the FBI.  So why would she be asking for an investigation just to end up in jail if she's a lying liar whore who lies?

  2. 1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:


    News flash: TDP isn’t a real thing

    Beto's campaign can't handle being responsible for getting people to the polls by itself for the whole state and individually targeted U.S. House races in TX-23, TX-7 and TX-32.

    TDP needs to just get people on the ground to get people to the polls on Election Day. 

  3. 3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

    This is nonsense.

    The FBI wouldn’t be conducting a criminal investigation.  They would be doing a deep background investigation.

    Which they already fucking do for every person nominated for a federal position or judgeship. 

    They did it with Anita Hill.  So EMAWful needs to stop acting like this is unprecedented.

  4. 7 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

    I am not as worried about SD-19 being a harbinger. Gallego had already lost twice. It sucks but stop trying to run a guy that has gotten beaten. Pete might be a good guy but the voters ain't buying what he's selling.

    I am only worried in the sense that Beto and Gina Ortiz Jones need to figure out how to get Hispanics to the polls.  They didn't show up for Gallego.  Will they show up for an O'Rourke and Jones?

    Otherwise, Hurd wins a 3rd term and Beto gets stomped.

  5. 7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

    538 ranks Ipsos as a B+ poll, so that is nice.  Quinnipiac is A-. 

     

    Weird to have such a huge range in two respected polls simultaneous.   If you told me that the state was somewhere between Cruz +9 and Beto +2, I'd say "Why the hell did we conduct a poll at all?  Of course it is."

    Quinnipiac was 35R, 26D, 33I (R+9)

    Ipsos was 47R, 43D, 9I (R+4)

  6. 2 minutes ago, RayDog said:

    It is the only way to reach a significant percentage of likely Beto voters.

    If you take the 2 combined, it's Cruz +3.5 which is....

    About what most people think it is, both nationally and in Texas.  Cruz is definitely campaigning like he's only up 3.5 and not 9.

  7. 4 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

    I agree, find someone in their mid 40's to mid 50's, bring in some new blood.

    Carter was 52 at the start of his presidency.  Johnson was 55 at the start of his, which is about the median age for new presidents.  Only two presidents have been over 70 at the *end* of their presidency; Trump will be the third. Other than Obama, the president has had a 1946 birthday from 1993 through whenever Trump leaves.  That's too much time for one generation to have power.

    I agree as well.

    My only caveat is Biden running for a promised 1 term under "restoring our standing in the world and cleaning up Trump's mess" with a younger VP would get my vote.  I would be extremely hesitant to support Biden in the primaries if he didn't make such an offer. 

    Such individuals I would prefer instead or to be Biden's VP choice to run in 2024:

    Kamala Harris - 53 (55 in 2020)

    Cory Booker - 49 (51 in 2020)

    Chris Murphy - 45 (47 in 2020)

     

  8. 4 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

    Yeah, they are technically part of Marvel, but Fox owns the rights to Fantastic 4 and Xmen.  Spiderman was controlled by Sony.  Marvel MCU couldn't use them because they didn't own the rights.  Now that the Mouse bought Fox they fall under that umbrella again.

    Yep.

    Marvel movies print money.  No brainer.  Trying to "BUT F4, X-MEN, FIRST HULK, SPIDERMAN" isn't accurate.

  9. 7 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

    Clearly this one flew under the radar. Then again, I don't live in SD19.

    This should be a wake up call for anyone who thinks TX23 will be anything other than a nail biter. The territory of SD19 and TX23 largely overlap.

    TX23 will be close.  SD19 was a couple weird things:

    1. State Senate special election in September

    2. On the heels of the D getting convicted (scandals of the previous incumbent change a race by a lot, per Nate Silver)

    3. Gallego was not the best option - Gutierrez probably was.  Gallego didn't seem to get the turnout in Bexar he needed because he's not from San Antonio.  Gallego also has a 2-time loser stench, losing to Hurd in 14 and 16.

    4. The TRP's bullshit residency lawsuits really seemed to hurt Gallego.

     

    But regardless, don't count on Hispanics to turn out. And don't count on the TDP to not fucking blow TX23, TX7, TX-32...

  10. 37 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

    Because at the heart of it, no one is FOR Cruz. They're for the R. That's all that matters.

    The old adage - Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.

    Don't matter if it was Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Jimbo Fisher, etc., R candidate = vote.

  11. 1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

    Depends on the route and the airline.  I flew Delta to London, and had a whole row to myself in Economy Plus.  When that situation happens, it is no big deal, because you can make a nice bed out of three seats.

    Yup. Last year IAH to CDG (each way) on AA, whole row in regular economy. 

    This year, IAH to DOH (each way) I had no one in the middle.  DOH to CNX (each way), whole row to myself.

  12. 24 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    I don't know.  I didn't check the methodology on this one.  But Quinnipiac typically does a mix.

    This pill is +9 R. Isn’t it really only +3 with the rest independent in Texas??

  13. Not much of a path with people's minds made up

    Quote

    Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O'Rourke backers.

    Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O'Rourke. Men back Cruz 57 - 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 - 32 percent. O'Rourke leads 97 - 3 percent among black voters and 54 - 45 percent among Hispanic voters.

    Republicans back Cruz 94 - 6 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 94 - 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O'Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz.

    Texas likely voters approve 53 - 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 52 - 43 percent favorability rating.

    O'Rourke gets a divided 43 - 42 percent favorability rating.

    Trump at +0 (49-49) in this poll.

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