Jump to content

Js1

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    54578
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    61

Posts posted by Js1

  1. Hey wait a minute.  This is the equivalent of meeting with foreign leaders alone and having no evidence of what was actually discussed.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/24/politics/foreign-leaders-call-white-house/index.html

    Washington (CNN)The White House has suspended the practice of publishing public summaries of President Donald Trump's phone calls with world leaders, two sources with knowledge of the situation tell CNN, bringing an end to a common exercise from Republican and Democratic administrations.

  2. 2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

    In Cohen's defense, he knows about Trump's history of repaying debts.  I'd want proof that he owed me also.

    Yeah. What 3 things do we know about Trump?

    He lies. He threatens with "tapes" to get you to back down. He doesn't pay people.

    I'd get all the fucking proof I could get.

  3. 4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    This is a really good point that I think people ignore.  For some reason, people assume that all these Senate races happen in a vacuum, as though what happens in Missouri doesn't have any bearing on what's happening in Montana or Tennessee.  But we know that's not the case.

    Whether it's a snowball effect (e.g., partisans become discouraged/encouraged as polls show a party trailing/leading) or the effect of a national message breaking through, Senate races generally trend in the same direction.  The exception, of course, is where you have uniquely bad candidates, but those favor the incumbents.  Where you have a pro-minority party wave, state lines don't provide a firebreak (to mix the metaphor).

    And frankly, given just how Republican their states are, that's Heitkamp's and Donnelley's only chance.

    They bring that up during 2016 too.  It was "hey if Pennsylvania is close, Michigan/Wisconsin is going to be close and some of these other states are going to swing in one direction all together" which we saw with those 3, Ohio, Iowa, NH, VA, CO, MN.

  4. 10 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

    I still dont see the Senate happening. Hope I'm wrong though. 

    Here's the funny thing on the Senate - two crucial states don't allow IVR polling (ND and Indiana).  We really have no idea what's happening there.

    Secondly, the rate of minority party incumbents getting re-elected in midterms where they do not control the Presidency is like 88% or something ridiculous.  History is not on the side of Heitkamp, Donnelly, Manchin, McCaskill, etc. losing their seats.  For the open seats in TN and AZ, it's like 70% or something for the out-of-party candidate getting elected.   Incumbent minority-party Senators losing in midterms, really can only think of it happening in 98 and 02.  And in both those years, Clinton and Bush were above 60% in approval.  Very rare.

    Thirdly, these things usually snowball.  Winning control of the House by gaining 24+ seats should also correlate to the wave breaking your way in the Senate.  The only outlier was 2010 and 2014 with really bad GOP candidates like Angle, O'Donnell, Murdoch, Akin.  If they call a big Manchin win early, I do expect you to see everything else break towards the party out of power, as it does.

  5. 51 minutes ago, RayDog said:

    The leading ks3 Democrat is polling 7 points ahead of Yoder.

    Most of the Republican tossups or leans might be better put in the Democratic lean category once you look at the race in detail. All the websites have been slow to adjust.

     

    In 2010, these prognosticators didn't really start discussing a GOP House of Representatives being a foregone possibility until Labor Day.  It's the end of July and they're already putting it at over 50% odds of a Democrat House and 50/50 odds the Democrats gain the Senate.

  6. 12 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

    Point is, no matter how much evidence and supporting testimony I throw, you will just disregard and say it’s not enough to qualify as proof.  It’s intellectually disingenuous.

    Swam'd.

    • Like 1
  7. 3 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

    While I was presumably saying positive things.

    Mr. President, you claim the video was cut as you were presumably saying positive things.  Do you recall what you were saying?

    ..... Positive things.

    Can you elaborate?

    ..... No. I don't even remember this conversation. Who is Michael Cohen?

  8. 9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Do your own homework.  He's a little bitch, and I think you overestimate his intellect by a mile.

    He's all the grandstanding of Cruz, but with worse hair and an old racist dad, and truly 100% thinks he's making a difference in bringing "libertarian" positions to the front by voting lock-step with the GOP to destroy civil liberties under the guise of "national security."

  9. 26 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    From what I gather they should actually both be listed as -R on the ballot but they are changing the rules so that one is going to be -U on the ballot so less of the vote is split.  

     

     

    YuP

  10. 5 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

     

    First time I've ever been on time for work!  Except for all of those Daylight Savings days.... lousy farmers....

    I see Esc, Ctrl, PgUp. Where's the Any key?

  11. Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

    That seems like bad news for D.  If all ten flip and everything else stays the same it still is a R house. 

    I mean, you're truly assuming all 24 R-held tossups don't flip.  That's like assuming Trump isn't going to step on his dick tomorrow.

  12. This is an interesting statistic and arguably what swung 2016 - how people voted who hated both candidates (and broke for Trump).

    That NBC poll from yesterday finds voters who hate both parties swing to the Democrats 55-25, 68% disapprove of Trump and 63% are enthusiastic about voting.

×
×
  • Create New...