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Js1

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Js1

  1. 7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

    Gotcha.  I thought the actual bill was passed last night.  

    It's a quirky process.  By triggering the desire to use reconciliation, it starts a required debate and amendment vote-a-rama before you even vote to proceed with the reconciliation process

    Obviously no surprise not a single Republican voted for reconciliation, because they don't want to be shut out of the process.  They brought that upon themselves with their completely unserious COVID relief proposal.  Sure, some proposals might end up in the final bill, like Romney's child poverty plan.  Other, like minimum wage, may be a separate bill. 

    They can still vote for the final package if they so desire.  But we don't need them. 

    The single biggest advantage we have on our side? Joe Biden.  Unlike Trump, he isn't going to cede negotiations to Congress and whine about it on Twitter.  In the end, it's Joe Biden's $1.9T plan and he's going to shepherd it through Congress. 

    Joe and Kamala met with House leaders and Chairs this morning about the bill and he is addressing it shortly.  He met with the Senate side on Wednesday. 

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  2. 1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

    So it passed the Senate and is now sent to the House right?  Dems control the House.  Get that shit done.  Clearly there's something I'm not aware of.

    Nothing substantial passed.  They passed the resolution to do the reconciliation.  Now the House has to - but the House doesn't have a vote-a-rama deal, they'll likely pass the resolution today.  THEN they can actually start crafting what is in the $1.9T bill. 

    All those amendments last night? Nonbinding grandstanding bullshit - the GOP just wanted Democrats on the record for things they think people will care about. 

    The 2 chambers still have to pass identical versions of the bill - which means conference committees to hammer out differences.  Plus a lot of things will have to go through a Parliamentarian ruling on the Byrd Rule. 

    • The first Bush Tax Cuts took a month to be signed into law using this process
    • The second Bush Tax Cuts took 3 months to be signed into law using this process
    • The ACA took 6 months to be signed into law using this process
    • The Trump Tax Cuts took over a month to be signed into law using this process
  3. Just now, Bruh Man said:

    That's the issue with using reconciliation, it's an arduous process which takes weeks. But you need only 50 votes

    If they had 60, it would have been done last week.
     

    Plus with only 50 Senate Dems and a slim House majority, there will be some wrangling on Senators like Manchin and Sinema and House members like Jared Golden to ensure they're happy with it before you can count on their votes. 

  4. 4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

    She would get smoked in a statewide race.  She's reached her ceiling.  She's not electable in anything outside a Trumpkin House district.

    This.

    People seem to think these House members who win R+27 districts are good statewide candidates.  They'll run and lose badly in states like Georgia.  People who represent these districts aren't good statewide candidates.   Her district is like 28 points TO THE RIGHT of Georgia as a whole.

    She'll never have to run a competitive race in her life as long as she's in that district.  So she has no idea of how to actually campaign and win votes from different voting blocs.  There's a reason national committees recruit candidates in swingier districts to run statewide, outside of states like Wyoming, Nebraska, New York, etc. - they actually know what they are doing. 

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  5. 4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    There were actually some good amendments that were adopted overnight.

    Regardless--I wonder if January 6 didn't bring in a new era of Democratic politics.  No more "we're going to play by the rules and hope to get some credit from Independents."  Now they're saying "we're going to ram shit through Congress, and the people are going to like the results."

    Because nobody gives a fuck about process.  Nobody is going to vote against a Democrat because s/he voted to go through reconciliation.  People are going to vote against Democrats if this shit doesn't work and people don't get back to work.

    Yes, it was very:

    We won.  We are crafting the bill and vast majorities of Americans approve of what we want in it.  Either vote for it, or don't.  But we have the votes with or without you. 

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  6. 1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Yep.  And because McCarthy is an idiot/coward, Donnie still wields plenty of power, even if us plebes aren't seeing/hearing about the latest batshittery he was posting on social media.  They don't want the spectacle of Trump campaigning for a primary opponent, even if many Trump supporters won't show up if Trump is not on the ballot.

    Although I'm beginning to think Trump is not going to campaign for anybody unless he can rake in the lion's share of the money.

     

    You mean exchanging endorsements and campaign appearances for PAC donations he will embezzle into his "foundations" and his 2024 "run" to off debts?

    There's a word for that.  He's really good at soliciting it too. 

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  7. 1 hour ago, berlinerbaer said:

    My point was that this vote did not have to happen if McCarthy would have dealt with MTG on his own or among leadership. Instead, he made all his caucus go on record. There are several freshmen Rs in purple districts who have had a rough first month in office, voting wise. I'm talking about the two ladies in CA, the one still undecided in NY, and the one in IA who won by like 10 votes.

    The whole reason Mitch built a pile of Dem House bills up on his desk was to prevent them from coming up for a vote and making his members stick their necks out. One explanation is that Trump told McCarthy to hold the vote in order to find out who the "traitors" are, after flying down to Mar a Lago and slob his knob.

    The mouth breathing Q-anon denier from California is/was still holding out hope he will be Speaker on January 3, 2023, not realizing he's going to wake up that day to either Speaker Hakeem Jeffries or, worse, a knife in his back from Speaker Gym Jordan. 

    He didn't dare piss off the Qaucus for fear he would get fucked - without realizing he embarrassed himself in the process and will indeed, find out. 

  8. Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    I don't think MTG ever said that 9/11 didn't occur. I think she argued that the Pentagon plane strike didn't occur. Or she was just asking questions. 

    See, we have to meet them halfway, they keep saying so.  So we have to acknowledge some of 9/11 happened, but maybe some of it didn't.   I guess those 2 planes did hit the WTC, but I won't concede the other 2 happened.  An empty field and the Pentagon? Psh.  The Pentagon is still standing. 

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  9. 5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    When you realize that stimulus has two purposes:

    1) yes, it's a help to people whose income is hurting.

    2) by giving money to consumers, they are likely to spend a good portion of it, functioning as a direct injection of fuel into the carburetor of the economy (yeah, old school stuff there) that is absolutely sputtering right now.

    In short, the benefit is both to the recipient of the stimulus, and the economic actors who will get the juice from the spending of the stimulus by those recipients.  We desperately need to juice the economy right now (one reason that the "tax cut" was ill-timed -- that's a CLASSIC stimulus measure -- although the structure of the tax cut wasn't even one that would provide much stimulus anyway, but I digress).  There's a fair chance of a decent natural increase in the velocity of money by the fall, when the virus will likely be in a place where we can resume a lot of activities that involve spending money, but we have to MAKE it to the fall, and September is a long fucking way away right now.

    I mean, did I need the $1800 I've gotten?

    Not really.  Did I spend it to help juice the economy? Hell yeah I fucking did.  Some bigger purchases I've been waiting on got bought.  I picked up food more often to help out local businesses.  I frequented more local small businesses with my stimulus money - plant shops, small art galleries, local brewers and distilleries.....and dispensaries, etc. 

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  10. 2 minutes ago, TexMex Horn said:

    The problem this season to me was the lack of history on these characters as they were sent out on their own. They tried to fill in during the episodes, but you had to watch closely & sometimes it was ambiguous or confusing. This made their individual plot lines kinda meh. 

      Hide contents

    During the last episode, I had trouble IDing  the ships during the battles. It felt only loosely organized. As a book reader, this season was a let down. Still excited for next season.

     

    Spoiler

    The battles in the finale episode confused the fuck out of me too.  

     

  11. 25 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

    so we bailed on this season around episode three. my boys looked at us and said "what happened to the old expanse?" they loved the previous seasons, but this one...i dunno, it's different in a "start over again" sort of way. 

    is it worth finishing/subjecting my boys to boredom for the end? they really weren't feeling it.

    I think it'll watch better in a binge format.  It wasn't a good season for week to week. 

  12. 2 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

    I keep seeing people say this, but I have trouble believing it, absent a LOT more organization by Trump.  Most of the Trumpers I see on Facebook aren't even particularly political; they're just king-worshipers.  They're not going to turn out to vote for a bunch of plebes not named "Trump."

    We already know this. 

    They didn't turn out in 2018.  They didn't turn out 2 months after the 2020 election in Georgia - GOP turnout plummeted in parts of the state.   They don't vote for anyone but Donald J. Trump. 

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