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Js1

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Js1

  1. Just now, Brisketexan said:

    Yeah.....put up a fight, but it's a losing battle.  Don't waste resources that could yield a dividend elsewhere.

    This fucking state.

    Just wait - if it's truly like GA-06, then the following happens:

    • GOP declares victory!  Proof that the GOP brand is still strong despite Trump and are ready to kick Democrats out of the majority in 2022! (ignoring that the seat will have shifted 4-5 points to the left from the 2020 Wright victory margin)
    • Dems declare victory!  Proof that Democrats are still fired up! (ignoring that it's a seat that is trending their way and they still couldn't win it and could be more Hispanic warning signs)
    • Dems barely win it in 2022
    • The 2021 Dem loser beats Ted Cruz in the Senate race in 2024, obviously. 

    It is known. 

  2. 2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

    So, Ron Wright of Texas has passed away due to COVID.  Could that be a seat that the Democrats can pick up?  It has to be done via special election, right?

    Vacant House seats can only be filled via special election. 

    It wouldn't be until early summer, likely.

    Trump +3 in 2020, Wright won it by 9 in 2020 and 7.7 in 2018.

     

    I already called it the GA-06 of 2021 - gonna dump hundreds of millions into the seat that the GOP will win by 4-5 points in a low turnout election.  

    • Rage+1 1
  3. ALSO - let's go ahead and get ready for TX-06 to be the GA-06 of 2021

    • First major test in a swing House district 6 months after a new POTUS is sworn in
    • High Hispanic numbers (22.7%) so good barometer to see if the Dems have still lost ground or if that was a Trump phenomenon (like the suburbs in 2017)
    • A district slowly drifting towards the Democrats
    • GA-06 PVI: R+8; TX-06 PVI R+9 (2016 numbers)
  4. 4 hours ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

    Agreed. He’s the perfect avatar for the working class. And officially official:

     

    Every County, Every Vote. - should be the motto of the 2022 Senate candidates

    Jeff Jackson (NC) has already committed to visiting every NC county.  Beto actually did it in 2018.

    Sometimes all it takes is showing up to win some votes - some of these counties may have not seen a Democratic candidate show up in decades, so they never listen to or even hear the message. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  5. Whoever runs for this seat in a special election (sometime in the early summer, so vacant until then) won't even know what the district would look like in November 2022 when they run again.

    2016: Trump +10.2

    2020: Trump +3

    2018: Wright +7.7

    2020: Wright +9

    However, a special election in Texas.... we know how it'll go. 

  6. 7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    As I understand it -- and be patient with me, I'm not fluent in "batshit crazy" (I'm merely conversational, picked up some skills because of some of the gals I dated back in the day) -- way back when and until 1933 or so, inaugurations took place on March 4th.  Then, after some sort of deep-state actions, we didn't just change the inauguration date, we transferred the United States of America into a shell corporation USA Inc., and THAT is what a person becomes president of on January 20th.  But Trump will be inaugurated under the OLD date, to become the president of the country "The United States of America," not the corporation "The United States of America, Inc. (a subsidiary of Wham-O Toys, Inc.)."

    Or, this could all have something to do with the blood of 800,000 children being the secret ingredient in the pizza sauce of the elites.  I'm not sure.  Like I said, my batshit crazy language skills ain't the best.

    That darn 20th amendment.  It's 10x higher than the 2nd, but not nearly as powerful, obviously. 

  7. I can’t white put my finger on the difference. Also helps that there has been a most unified message from every part of the Dem party on COVID response and relief. Sure the minutiae is different but what Biden, Bernie and Manchin want are effectively the same. 

    • Hook 'Em 3
  8. 1 hour ago, elfenix said:

    i assume D+ prints money

    They could make an animated movie about Jesus pissing on hookers and still print gobs of money because your kid will murder you in your sleep if they can’t watch Frozen for the 906th time, the Disney and marvel nerds will show up for their movies/shows and the your kid has to have the newest Baby Yoda merch. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
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