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Js1

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Js1

  1. 12 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

    Statehouses are important right now too. Dems need to have more oversight over redistricting following the 2020 census.  

    And governorships.  Kobach (KS) and Stitt (OK) winning are really good for the Democrats.  They're also poised to keep Minnesota and possibly pick up Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin.  Graham looks good in Florida and Arizona Dems seems excited that they have a good ticket in Sinema and Garcia.

  2. 12 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

    Meh.  People upset at this just let their hopes exceed reality.  We aren’t going to have a 350 seat D house.  We probably don’t want one either.  

    Yep.  This was right in line with polling - a toss-up with the edge of the Republicans due to gerrymandering/rural vote.

    There's going to be 100 close races in November. On both sides.  There will be a few races that should have flipped that somehow won't.  There will be many races that shouldn't have flipped that will.  That's how 2006 and 2010 worked.

  3. There are very few districts with as big a rural/urban divide as OH-12.  I think people are pissed O'Connor barely lost and are taking it to the extreme (OMGz blue wave fizzling!!!)  There's 70+ districts in play with a swing of 13-15 points. 

    The Republicans played up this race because it was THE race on a Tuesday in August.  They barely won.  They can't commit $6 million and Trump/Pence to 435 races in November.

    I wish Election Day was tomorrow because the whining about "not winning" is getting annoying AF. 

    Winning OH-12 by a point is the equivalent of Aggy beating Nicholls State in September by 10 ("that was a tough test, it will make us so much better by November!") and then finishing 4th in the west and barely above 500 again.

  4. 5 hours ago, texasstrong12 said:

    Still an incredibly talented roster. Every starter is a 5 star. 

     

    There's still a lot of talent and depth.  Sedona was extra depth and talent.  Putting a year between her and Charli and basically treating her as the 2019 post recruit in between Collier and 2020 (Gusters, probably) is good for our overall outlook.

  5. 17 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

    They've got to have some kind of reason. It can't be because voters reject the medicine show schtick they're trying to sell.

    13 point swing in a heavily gerrymandered district that should not have been close, at all, ever. Not even if Jesus was the Democrat candidate.

    Your team of uneducated rubes ain't excited to show up and the gerrymandered suburbs are turning out against you. 

    Sorry, I'll put it in language you understand:

    Yer team of morons ain't showing up and the educated "elite" "libtards" are sick of your racist pandering.

    • Like 2
  6. Jamie Herrera-Beutler is in WA-03.  So far, the Dem vote is over 50%. She's an incumbent who is at 41% in a primary.

    WA-03 is listed as likely Republican.

    There's going to be a lot of surprises in November.

    Josh Hawley didn't even clear 60% in a basically uncontested GOP primary against a bunch of nobodies.  Weak.

  7. 1 hour ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

    To use a sports analogy here, unless you have Bill Belicheck on the sideline, you have to score and take the points/lead even when you leave a lot of time on the clock for the other team to drive and score the walk-off win.

    Wanting to lose this election in the hopes of winning the overall game by playing possum doesn't seem wise, because the Dem's don't have a Belicheck helping them to play this game.

     

    You might be dumb.

    They didn't WANT to lose.  But this race really showed that the Republicans need to drop 6 million into every R+14-R+1 district and have Pence/Trump visit.  That is highly unlikely to be possible in 70+ districts.

    If anything can be taken away last night:

    Democrats need 24 seats to take back the House right now:

    • There's pretty much 10 that are almost guaranteed going to flip
    • 11 seats are tossups in Illinois, New Jersey, Virginia, Washington and California which are not guaranteed but highly likely to flip based on primary turnout, enthusiasm and the overall D-shift in elections since 2017

    That's 21 of the 24 right there. I didn't even mention tossups in Texas, all over the Midwest (Michigan and Iowa), Colorado or New York. 

    Not every district is going to swing D+13 based on last night, but this is v consistent with the overall trend over 11 federal special elections held since Trump was elected: D+15.7

    • Like 1
  8. 27 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

    Hope you're right, but for over two years now I've been saying there's no way Trump or anyone he backs could win. Been disappointed more times than not. 

    Turnout in the heavy R parts were down a lot. It was a v gerrymandered seat and they eeked it out. 

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