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Dahobbs

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Everything posted by Dahobbs

  1. That's interesting. I've been of the belief that the SEC champ is in no matter what. This statement and the positioning of Oregon maybe suggests otherwise.
  2. Honestly, both of those are more coherent and tied to reality than many of the posts in this thread.
  3. Great, $1,000 work for you? I win if: winners are Bama, Texas, Michigan, Washington and Louisville, and then Texas is in the playoffs and Georgia isn't. winners are Bama, Texas, Michigan, Oregon and Louisville, and then Texas is in the playoffs and Georgia isn't. winners are Bama, Texas, Iowa, Oregon and FSU, and then Texas is in the playoffs and Georgia isn't. winners are Bama, Texas, Iowa, Washington and FSU, and then Texas is in the playoffs and Georgia isn't. You win if: winners are Bama, Texas, Michigan, Washington and Louisville, and then Georgia is in the playoffs and Texas isn't. winners are Bama, Texas, Michigan, Oregon and Louisville, and then Georgia is in the playoffs and Texas isn't. winners are Bama, Texas, Iowa, Oregon and FSU, and then Georgia is in the playoffs and Texas isn't. winners are Bama, Texas, Iowa, Washington and FSU, and then Georgia is in the playoffs and Texas isn't.
  4. Bama wins and it is in in my opinion (although we have a small chance). But he apparently thinks a 1-loss Georgia also gets in over us. That's insanity.
  5. I'll bet $100,000 right now that if FSU or Michigan loses, and Texas and Alabama wins, we are in over Georgia. There is zero chance we are left out for Georgia if there is one spot at play.
  6. Iowa winning is the same as Louisville, either puts us in.
  7. ??? If Bama beats UGA, we're definitely getting in over UGA if those are the options (FSU or Michigan loses). No one thinks we get in over UGA if UGA wins.
  8. Any scenario with Texas is acceptable. I'm just saying you can't root for every scenario with Texas because the games aren't played at the same time. Oregon/Washington comes up first. The only thing we can do is root for Oregon because it increases our chances, even if marginally, to make the playoffs. The same is true for Alabama/Georgia. Root for Alabama because it increases our changes of advancing. This would all be a lot easier if the ACC champ was Friday and Louisville won. Then, you'd could root for whatever you want the rest of the games in terms of idea matchups because we'd already be in (with a win). No. Washington is bad matchup for us. Any team that is willing to completely abandon the run and just throw 50-60 times in a game is going to cause us problems. We matchup better with the more balanced teams.
  9. It is a scenario that would be good for us, but you're really putting almost all of your eggs in the Louisville basket. There is no reason not to root for Oregon and Iowa as well. We have a less of chance of advancing if Washington wins on Friday. It really is that simple.
  10. Correct. And there really is no tradition of the Pac-12 being in the playoffs. No non-champion Pac 12 team has ever made the playoffs. And, of the power 5 conferences, the Pac 12 has gotten in the least amount of times. Pac 12 playoffs appearances: 2014 and 2016. That is it. Notre Dame, OU, Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Ohio State have each made the playoffs at least as many times as the Pac 12 as a whole.
  11. Here is the answer: the committee really doesn't do any hard thinking until the final rankings. Nothing until then matters. I guarantee you that every member of this board has thought more about the rankings than the committee has until this point. They will not start seriously thinking about it until like midnight on Saturday.
  12. LOL, that is ridiculous. Again, a non-conference champion has never gotten in over a conference champion with the same record. Multiple times conference champions have "jumped" over non-conference champions with the same record. Bet the under.
  13. If Michigan loses, we are in. A Michigan loss means there can be at most four 12-1 or better conference champions. Basically, the Big 10 spot becomes open and we slide in. A Georgia loss leaves open a slim pathway that we take the SEC spot over Alabama or that we take the Pac-12 spot in a best 2 of 3 between us, Oregon, and Alabama.
  14. Neither would have Alabama. Georgia will not be #1 in the final rankings with the a loss. Alabama will be ahead of them. And we'll have the highest ranked win in the final CFP rankings. Hell, Alabama may actually end up #1 if Washington, Michigan, and FSU lose. Stop looking at the rankings as they are today. Look at them as they will be after the dust settles. That is how the committee has done it year after year.
  15. But Oregon will not have beat the #3 CFP team. It will have beat like #10 (Washington will drop like a stone after the loss). Texas however will have beat the #3 CFP team (Alabama) in the final rankings. Y'all keep thinking the rankings are sticky like the old polls and BCS. They aren't. Previous weeks don't matter. The committee has pretty clearly looked at at everything fresh with the final rankings every single year. We don't need to "jump" Oregon because Oregon's current spot only exists based on the results as they stand. Alabama beating Georgia will change those spots. Really though, my point isn't to give a definitive answer as to what will happen. My point is only that we need to root for outcomes that give us as many pathways to the CFP as possible. Starting Friday, that means rooting for Oregon. If Washington wins, we lose all possibility of taking the Pac-12 spot. On Saturday (after rooting for Texas), we need to root for Alabama. If Georgia wins, that eliminates all possibility of us taking the SEC spot. Iowa and Louisville are the obvious evening chances, and either winning puts us in.
  16. Great. I'll take your bet. If Texas, Alabama, Oregon, FSU, and Michigan win, you give me the board if Alabama and Texas advance.
  17. There is a good chance of it. The committee will have to pick 2 of Alabama, Oregon, and Texas. If it picks Alabama, it'll have to really struggle to exclude Texas. If it doesn't pick Alabama, then it'll have to include Texas. Current rankings mean absolutely nothing.
  18. So they'll pass up on Oregon and Texas to put in two SEC teams? I mean, that is possible, but it is extremely unlikely and would be completely against precedent. Given that we are in beauty pageant mode in this scenario, I'm not really worried about it. Nothing is guaranteed here, but I think the order of likelihood is Texas/Bama, Oregon/Bama, Texas/Oregon, Texas/Georgia, and then Bama/Georgia. Even if you disagree with this order, this scenario still gives Texas a chance unlike if Georgia and Washington win. Hence the zero reason to root for Georgia and Washington.
  19. If multiple teams from a single conference get in, it means that 2 of Michigan, FSU, and Texas lost. That's it. If we win, we aren't getting passed up for a team that isn't a conference champion. Im not just taking what the committee says their guidelines are as gospel. I'm also looking at the results of the last decade to determine what they do. The rules are blindingly obvious. They look at overall record. And then they look at conference champions. They've only had to move beyond those metrics one time to select the four playoff teams. I don't think this is the year they change that.
  20. Our path in would be much, much narrower. But you do you and be negative.
  21. Well, LSU will likely be terrible next year, so the beginning of that schedule may not be completely terrible. But yeah, that is hard.
  22. That's my point. Even if your ideal situation happens, it doesn't mean anything if you truly believe there are no rules. It is illogical to simultaneously assert that no rules apply and to assert there is some outcome that must be better for us. Both cannot be true.
  23. Again, you're being stupid. If the committee is going to do whatever it wants, and we can't rely on reason or past experience, then it doesn't really matter who wins. 1 loss, non champion FSU over Texas? Sure, why not. After all, Texas's only win was Alabama, and they just lost to Georgia. Or maybe 2 loss Alabama who is much better now than when it played Texas deserves another shot. Or 1 loss non champion Ohio State.
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