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Posts posted by Hefeweizen
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California still has more wealth coming in. Â Donât be fooled by who is leaving California. Â Itâs not all tech bros going to Celina and Katy.
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You might be right, but Iâd just as soon pass on that work as do it for the reduced price. Â One of the benefits of working for private and public clients. Â I knew multi family had been there but I donât touch those projects.
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 It is the first clear sign to me that there is real fear that they are having to reduce prices further than just buying down mortgage rates and throw in extra incentives.
Â
I also know a couple of developers who are really slowing down new lot delivery because builders willingness to pay top dollar per front foot is dropping.
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I can tell you one of the big home builders is telling all their vendors to bend over and reduce prices right now. Â Because I just told them to fuck off on a proposal they sent me back with redlines.
Â
Times are about to get real fucking interesting.
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13 minutes ago, tbone_ said:
Maybe we should miss a payment, let the market tank, buy it all back on the cheap. Then start making payments again.
US bonds would still be the best relative alternative there is.Iâm not sure I agree with your detective work there.
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1 hour ago, aggie08 said:
How do I say, "Y'all fucking voted for this" without coming off as CR?
You already went CR dude. Â But thatâs ok because macroeconomics is woke.
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Everyone in California is sick of Gavinâs shit. Â Go away douchenozzle.
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Bessent just said heâs comfortable with some disruptions. Â Weâre in for a rough ride when the government is talking down the market.
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1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:
Â
putin is a heavy heavy influence on the orange dumb ass. i can easily see putin and his minions slapping dumb ass on the back on all these wild decisions.Â
china is a heavy heavy influence on musk. china's market might be the only lifeline out there for tesla ? Â
Youâre high if you think china will do anything for TSLA. Â Heâs going to get a government bailout.
Â
China is way ahead in EV among other areas. Â BYD is cheaper by like 70 percent already?Â
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I donât fly southwest unless absolutely unavoidable. Â But I also donât check bags usually.
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 Between FAA shenanigans and the general unpleasantness of flying I prefer to drive if itâs within 500 miles. Â
ÂAlaska airlines is everything Southwest isnât anymore- cheap, efficient, and no bs. Â I like them when I have to fly.
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14 minutes ago, Butch Had Not said:
Get the katsu sandwich?
No, guy next to me had it and it looked great but I did the Katsu with curry, and it was awesome. Â Iâll be back in a few weeks and will likely hit it again.
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On 8/7/2024 at 9:47 PM, Butch Had Not said:
Totally forgot about this place. Amazing croquettes among other things. Â
Â
Thatâs the place I had lunch today! Â Top notch.
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In SD for a day, and it rained, hard, most of the day. Â Hit the maritime museum which I had never done before and itâs fantastic. Â Great lunch at a katsu place in Clairemont.
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 Great city, wonderful place to visit.  I love the flight down from Monterey, it only takes a bit over an hour.
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6 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:
Approaching 10% territory. VOO is down 8.51% n the last month.
Just getting started. Â There is no positive news to get this back on track for a while. Â No CR. Â Meaning, no continuing resolution.
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6 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:
As of March 7, 2025, the S&P 500's P/E ratio was 27.3
The average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is around 24.75
Headed to between below 20. Thatâs about a thirty percent decrease. Â Lots of room to run imo.
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1 hour ago, Parliament said:
It would shatter the windshield. Â And the splatter would corrode the body.
I think chefs call that âvelvetingâ.
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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:
Would it be wrong to carry around $7 eggs and throw them at parked Cyber Truck windshields? Asking for a friend.
I would think driving one of those turds is punishment enough.
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And still overvalued by a factor of five.
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Yeah thatâs a bald faced lie. Â Blips are no big deal but a real retreat in equities is going to panic the broligarchy. Â Their wealth is in the market by and large.
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Amazon is really going down the tubes. Â Most everything Iâve price checked is cheaper on Walmart these days. Â Walmart does free shipping over 35 bucks, and prime video really isnât worth much for the free tier with ads. Â
ÂI may not renew prime again despite my college age kids loving the convenience.
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The GLP makers seem to have something the US is going to buy a lot ofâŠ
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weâll see how it works out. Â I donât begrudge anyone staying heavy in US equity but right now I think itâs tremendously overvalued. Â My US equity exposure is all in value mutual funds because I think theyâre slightly less susceptible to the burst coming to the AI bubble. Â
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1 hour ago, Tailgate said:
Thread is starting to go cloak roomâŠ
Not really. Â Tariff are fucking whipsawing the market. Â Youâre welcome to put anyone on ignore if you donât want to read about it.
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At the outset of this clown show I moved from an 80/20 equity and bond fund allocation to 45 percent value equity, 35 percent international, and 20 percent cash. Â International equities are trading at comparatively low valuations and I think are positioned for relative growth in the next five years.
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 Feeling pretty good about that decision a month in.
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Worst trade war ever. Â Phony war deluxe. Â The markets fucking hate this shit worse than anything ever seen before, is making big burly stockholders get teary eyed.
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Alaska volcano about to Spurr an erruption
in Daily Texan
Posted