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Hefeweizen

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Hefeweizen

  1. 7 hours ago, tbone_ said:

    You might want to re look at the stock prices of the big publics over the last 6 months.

     

    Also, for what it’s worth the incentives may look like shenanigans to buyers but the accountants and analysts have no problem accurately discerning actual revenue, cost, and margin. And yes, the big publics are in choppy waters right now.

     

    While they may own their own mortgage companies, they are not the investors in those loans, so they are still subject to market forces. Owning the originator may make it easier to execute a rate buy down but the cash to do so still comes straight out of margin.  

     

     

    Chatting about this today.  I wonder whether the homebuilder side or the in house mortgage originator is buying down the difference.  Because someone is buying it.  Wondering how long that is tenable in the current rate market.

  2. 1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

    Brat, my uncle was a veteran of the ‘Devil‘s Brigade’ - the First Special Service Force.  They invaded Kiska only to find that the Japanese had left.  So they were sent to Italy to fuck up Germans (and so earned their nickname).

    My grandfather was a combat engineer in the first special service force.  Small world…

    • Hook 'Em 3
  3. You might be right, but I’d just as soon pass on that work as do it for the reduced price.  One of the benefits of working for private and public clients.  I knew multi family had been there but I don’t touch those projects.

     

     It is the first clear sign to me that there is real fear that they are having to reduce prices further than just buying down mortgage rates and throw in extra incentives.

     

    I also know a couple of developers who are really slowing down new lot delivery because builders willingness to pay top dollar per front foot is dropping.

    • Like 1
  4. 13 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

    Maybe we should miss a payment, let the market tank, buy it all back on the cheap. Then start making payments again.

    US bonds would still be the best relative alternative there is.

    I’m not sure I agree with your detective work there.

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Haha 3
  5. 1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

     

    putin is a heavy heavy influence on the orange dumb ass. i can easily see putin and his minions slapping dumb ass on the back on all these wild decisions. 

    china is a heavy heavy influence on musk. china's market might be the only lifeline out there for tesla ?  

    You’re high if you think china will do anything for TSLA.  He’s going to get a government bailout.

     

    China is way ahead in EV among other areas.  BYD is cheaper by like 70 percent already? 

  6. I don’t fly southwest unless absolutely unavoidable.  But I also don’t check bags usually.

     

     Between FAA shenanigans and the general unpleasantness of flying I prefer to drive if it’s within 500 miles.  
     

    Alaska airlines is everything Southwest isn’t anymore- cheap, efficient, and no bs.  I like them when I have to fly.

    • Hook 'Em 5
    • Like 2
  7. 14 minutes ago, Butch Had Not said:

    Get the katsu sandwich?

    No, guy next to me had it and it looked great but I did the Katsu with curry, and it was awesome.  I’ll be back in a few weeks and will likely hit it again.

  8. In SD for a day, and it rained, hard, most of the day.  Hit the maritime museum which I had never done before and it’s fantastic.  Great lunch at a katsu place in Clairemont.

     

     Great city, wonderful place to visit.  I love the flight down from Monterey, it only takes a bit over an hour.

  9. 6 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

    As of March 7, 2025, the S&P 500's P/E ratio was 27.3

    The average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is around 24.75

    Headed to between below 20. That’s about a thirty percent decrease.  Lots of room to run imo.

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