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52-80

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Posts posted by 52-80

  1. I get that the generic nature of professional services work (accenture, ey, pwc, etc) means their public advertisements are necessarily jargoned and empty.  

    the real point of the advertisement is only brand name reinforcement. 

    but still…its so ridiculously vacuous. on the bloomberg radio network theres an add for deloitte that goes something like this:

    ”[narrator] want to understand what machine learning and artificial intelligence is all about and how it can turbocharge your business? here’s deloitte head of technologies priyanda to help explain:

    [heavily accented woman] we have found AI to be such a powerful driver across a multitude of corporate domains. for example, in shipping, AI can give the answer about efficiencies in planning to accelerate execution.  in b2c interactions, AI models give staff the right answer in the right context to help enrich customer dialogs.  its a game-changer  

    [narrator]  enhance and empower your capabilities. learn all of this and more, go to deloitte.com slash assqueef.


    my eyes roll back behind my head in 3 full circles

    • Like 1
  2. 6 hours ago, immamac said:

    Crypto is 2.5T SPX as a whole is 44T and without the top 7 it's more like 36T. It's not a rounding error. It's smaller than some of the largest companies on earth, but it's bigger than 100 of the 500 biggest companies on earth in aggregate as well. 

    Theres some ‘real money’ underpinning the cryptosphere so its not all hot air. FTX bankruptcy administrators recently found enough assets to make all their creditors whole.

    Turns out, 70% of the value of the claimants were held in USD/equivalents, so account holders will get back what they were owed AND interest in top (some $1.18:1 in net). The remaining 30% tied to crypto will be paid according to value at time of bankruptcy. So if held in BTC…they would recover in cash what they *had* — but which is a mere 1/3rd of todays market value. 

    Pretty amusing end to the story. 

  3. 1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

    For example, are the credit numbers adjusted for population?  And is Fig. 21 adjusted for inflation?

    All the credit number are rates, so already normalized for population. 
     

    Fig 21 (hypothetical coverage of emergency spending) is nominal. $400 was ~$550 in 2013….but the current survey found that the response was insensitive to the a $500 question anyway. 

    Since 2013, when this question was first asked, median household incomes increased as did consumer prices.To check how changes in price levels affect responses to this question, the 2022 survey asked one-fifth of respondents how they would handle a $500 expense instead. Changing the threshold only altered the share who would pay in cash by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting that shifts in the price level have not materially affected the trend in this series.

  4. 50 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Does your homeownership chart take into account coprorate owners or multiple home owners (rich boomers) or people leveraging homes for Air B&B as a career versus dwindling inventory? Becuase if it's just saying that 66% ownerhip of a home existing being stable, well, that's an entirely different dynamic. Those are important distinctions to understand.

    Your fed chart about emergency says "Cash or Equivalent." Which means people can cover it with a credit card. Which in general indicates they don't have the fluid cash to cover an emergency, IMO. I read where the links came from. It didn't seem as rosy as that one chart paints it, but I guess that's my interpretation of 25% of people skipping medical visits/treatment becuase they can't afford it:
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2022-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2021-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm

    I want to respond to this specifically:
     

    Yes. The very nature of your original chart where "everyone is doing fine finacially" while thinking the US economy is completely FUBARD'D at the local and national level pretty much proves they're lying about something, whether they know it or not. 

    And here's another study that turns those numbers on it's head, saying it's 67% that can't cover that $400 expense:
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/percentage-americans-unable-cover-400-133058811.html

     

     

    Census’ home ownership is defined as owner-occupied. Otherwise, every house is owned by someone (private or corporate landlord) and the measure becomes meaningless. No heavy math required. 
    see: Tenure

    https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/2021/2021 AHS Definitions.pdf
     

    Whatever number of people admitting to skipping medical services could be construed as “bad”. Even 5%. The important thing is to put it in context. The current answer is lower than when the survey first started — post Obamacare, btw

    IMG_6492.thumb.jpeg.e23d7ee53aad9a772feb336048f15d3b.jpeg
     

    The speculation about the statistic masking people using credit card to cover lack of true liquidity: (1) survey specifically conditions on “credit card **paid off** at the next statement and (2) importantly, the criteria were identical in the previous years when they asked the same question.

    The occams razor answer as to why there is a divergence between peoples response about their own finances vs external finances as a whole….is they know reasonably/relatively well about their money, and they simply they dont know shit about the economy.  

    Thats not even meant to be disparaging. Its well evidenced here and pretty much undisputable. People dont key into anything besides headline prices (mostly of gasoline), and headline news print. More than that, their assessment of economic conditions are primarily a reflection of whether their party is in government. (A hilarious effect replicated in every country/jurisdiction in the world). 
     

    **
     

    If we simply lean on anecdotes to start this convo, ill end it with one. My own dear wife with a graduate degree in science and whose earnings grew 50% over last few years…if i asked her if the unemployment rate or stock market was up or down YTD she’d have no idea. If I asked her whether the central bank’s policy rates have been rising or dropping she’d look at me like I’m pranking her. If I asked her whether the economy is better or worse, she’d probably say worse….because milk costs more. 

    • Like 1
  5. 1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Assessment of own financial self-being, well, that's just asking people what they think in regards to each of those lines? So it's basically something from fucking Survey Monkey, right?

    I'm not a math guy, but I know a little something about people and how they work. When asked how people are doing, pride and ego very often insist that they say "We're doing fine" becuase people are fucking embarrassed to say they're poor, or struggling, or doing badly. Which is why you see your top line consistently over 70% "Yeah, my finances are doing ok!" meanwhile credit card debt is at record high, fewer people own homes, etc. 

    Home ownership rate is stable multi-decade (some 66%). Median credit card utilization all time steady (10%). Delinquency rate is all time low. Unpaid rate and balance is like 1%.

    You dont need to be a math guy to find that.

     

    IMG_6489.thumb.jpeg.7331faa5358cc1a84c08ddb3a8e309c0.jpeg

     

    “But its because they lie to surveymonkey”.  Okay, but they selectively lie on different things at different rates at different times?

    Dont drink the doomerjuice. 

    IMG_6490.jpeg

    IMG_6491.jpeg

  6. 10 hours ago, immamac said:

    You are making my exact point for me. It's made up productivity on a sham economy. Peoples personal finance is fine because they are part of the grift but they know it's a grift nonetheless. 

    The issue isn't necessarily rampant fraud as much as it is a rampant debt and PE fueled ponzi scheme. 

    The entire 'capitalization' of the cryptosphere is smaller than 1 company in the SPX.  It is a mere byproduct of financial surplus.

    If you want to say that the SPX itself is overvalued, in big part due to excessive liquidity, thanks to the Fed's directionally-bad overaccomodation of the Govt's appetite for debt spending.... hey, nice to see you in the party; keg's in the back.

    If you want to say people in aggregate are poor, we know that's factually wrong. 

    If you want to say crypto is this malignant thing that should be eradicated because its so morally wrong what people do with their disposable money -- which I dont think you are saying -- leave it to the authoritarian church ladies to preach that apocalyptism.  Few as they are, theres enough of their hysteria for one board.

  7. 24 minutes ago, immamac said:

    Look at the rise of grift in crypto nft and now AI. It's crazy and yet we have little to no real productivity gain because of these things. 

    Your issue then is about how people in the market deploy their labor/productivity, not the underlying economic conditions. 

    That talented software engineers are spending their time writing blockchain apps and people are throwing cash at monkey jpegs tell me its a luxury afforded by having good economic conditions. 

    If you could code but were financially destitute, you’d work on improving ad-targeting for google to get that sweet steady W2. 

  8. On 5/13/2024 at 10:37 PM, Brisketexan said:

    A big problem is that the rising tide of the last 40+ years hasn't lifted all boats in proportion.  The worker is making $50k...and has seen his real wages stagnate as productivity has shot up. 
     

    this is categorically false. it can be shown in a million measurements over any time frame that wealth and wages in real terms have increased for factory workers, restaurant workers, non-supervisory workers, low percentile earning workers, ad infinitum. and ive shown it here repeatedly.

    i dont know why people keep persisting this myth about the common worker….but the answer is embedded in this graphic, from todays Federal Reserve publication of a survey of 11,000 people across all economic statuses:

    IMG_6484.thumb.jpeg.ea33b32a87da643cd971b750dfdfb6a0.jpeg

    “Everybody else is suffering except for me”. Im no psychologist but uh…is this Messiah Complex or something?

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. i guess most people are net-negative on microsoft?

    i think its office365 is pretty good mostly.  its continually pushing many useful updates and the offline/online handoff is 99% seamless. Teams is good for what is a fairly-complex product.

    Microsoft Windows, however, remains to be a steaming pile of shit compared to MacOS.

  10. 10 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

    Most of the 1500 people charged for J6 posed no real threat to security, did not conceal their identities, were not armed, shown on video with no intent to harm. They were fat people curiously walking through the Capitol like tourists.

    Yall fuckers are running some bizarre post-apocalyptic horror movie in your heads. But this is real life, not the fucking Purge. People come to your door without trying to murder you and your family. Even people who disagree with you. So calm the fuck down and stop being such nancies. It’s embarrassing.

    Ah ok

    • Hook 'Em 2
  11. unless you want $$$ bespoke, or $$ made-to-measure with questionable results, you can order a bunch of Lands End shit online, and then find local alterationist to fix it.  Lands End traditional cut is very generous for your type of build, and because it has specific-sleeve length sizing, it might even just fit directly

  12. 3 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

    For Christ’s sake, @Willfully Horn, read the letter. There was no threat, veiled or otherwise. The letter laid out basic “demands” of a protest movement and suggested “further dialogue.”

    Let he who hasnt approached someones house at 4am in a ski mask to ask for further debate at 5am cast the first stone

    Totally normal shit to defend. 

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  13. 22 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

    It wasn't (nor was the regent claiming) a home invasion.  It wasn't really trespassing either.  It was a thinly veiled threat as stated that we know where you live.  This is the scene in the movie when the mobsters come into the store and tell the owner "nice place, be a shame if something happened to it"

    If the university says “youre not allowed to camp on the campus lawn” its violent rhetoric”. If you trample on the lawn of the facultys private residence at 4am its just an expression of justice.

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  14. the Words Are Mean posse characterizing the universities’ coddling of them as “Violent Rhetoric”.

    is it any surprise the people with this type of perspective would reflexively consider everything a transgression and call everyone a nazi or fascist.

    these people were simply not bullied as much as they should have been. 

    IMG_6343.jpeg

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    • Haha 1
  15. 6 hours ago, immamac said:

    honestly why do any of you even give a shit? I kinda feel like locking this thread. It's stupid. 

    You may not be familiar with 3rd amendment to the constitution: the right to mercilessly ridicule absolutely retarded leftists on the internet. James madison compels citizens to do so. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  16. 7 hours ago, Sam Lin said:

    Why are you catering to them? Go eat what you want!

    Teamwork and networking and all that jazz. We’re in south france and seafood restaurants dont play that vegetable game bullshit

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