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52-80

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Everything posted by 52-80

  1. first, please somebody summarize all the draft predictions everyone made in here and contrast it to the actual draft results? that would be hilarious. anybody can deploy AI to do it?
  2. The Capital One statements come from their internal analysts assessing general consumer spending - all the stuff customers use their cards on. That aside, when there's people on the streets attacking cars and showrooms, the problem there is a bit more acute than worrying about the sophistication of economic journalists.
  3. -Southwest Airlines yanked targets for FY25 & 26 -Texas Instruments broadened its range of spending schedule. Did not “guide” for FY26 revenue, but affirms long term growth expectation. Specifically expects to be unaffected by tariffs — they have operations in China to serve that market. But also their outputs goes into both industrial and consumer products, and hence tied to general economic activity. -Discover Financial released earnings today, but call is scheduled for tomorrow. Stock was up in normal sessions and also now in afterhours. -Capital One said they’re vigilant of tariff related uncertainty and monitoring their downside risk scenarios. So far, all internal metrics and models of consumer spending and credit profiles are all positive/optimistic. So…nobody going CR yet. Visa, UPS, Qualcomm, and Apple are the notable ones on calendar for next week.
  4. How does the particle board take that weight? Im quite sure Ikea has a track-hung system similar to this. The hardware stores also have their generic versions. I did some sleuthing, and actually whats now-known as the Elfa system was introduced (coincidentally by a Swede) in the 30s, and patented in the US in 1948. That’s a full decade before this German guy got credited for “inventing” this. And somehow theyre asking $1000 for a single bookshelf and a laminate desk board. Nuts.
  5. I got obsessed with this modular sofa system designed by a german guy back in the 1960s. It's not supposed to be haute ware. It was meant to be affordable and accessible, the modularity meant for mass production for apartment dwellers. Turns out, if you want to buy a set of sofa + loveseat + chair, it cost the same as a new fucking car. Secondly, there's a 60 year old company that exist only to sell this guy's 3 product: the pictured sofas, tables, and Elfa-like shelving system. The pictured shelving system cost about $5000, while the equivalent Elfa cost like $300. The prices they're asking is amazing. Presumably they've paid out the patent/licensing for decades and fully amortized all their production tooling and processes, so the economics to churn out this stuff today must be incredible.
  6. Great. Now casters are going to be tariff'ed at 145%.
  7. YouTube ads. I got them blocked on desktop, but can't do the same on smartphone unless you run it through browsers or sketchy 3rd party apps. So I caved and paid $8 for the Premium Lite subscription. What also makes me surly is if you're typing direct from consciousness, you think "8 dollars" but have to invert the order to "$8"
  8. My toddler runs into the kitchen where im prepping food. “pwease, daddy, pwease, pwease…” ”what is it. what do you want?” He stretches his arms out. “a HUG!” Best goddamn feeling in the world. 🤗
  9. the idea of gliders is fucking preposterous. i mean, i know the physics behind it, and ive even flown small planes myself, but still... the fact that you just find "updrafts" and get free lift and basically stay in the air forever... thats just complete bullshit.
  10. A sobering reminder of aging (and not following pop music) is how old you think some music is, versus how old it actually is. That Gotye song came on the radio and I thought “oh its that recent’ish hit song”. Turns out its from over a decade ago. For a teenager now, just getting into their music phase, that song came out before they were born.
  11. Cooking Rudolf and his reindeer friends for lunch. Loin cut. Made a pan sauce but should’ve done a fruit/cherry sauce. Expected gameyness. Actual taste is very mineraly and liver-like, similar to a flat iron steak. 7/10 would maybe eat again.
  12. Absolutely didnt deserve it, but held on pretty well. Lots of interesting potential FW matchups now that thats shaking out. Would be nice to see either he or Jean Silva knock Yair backdown to where he belongs.
  13. Don’t think their tone will change. Their job is to express business forecast, not personal political opinions. So their responses will be “measured”, and not publicly spiteful of the Admin, no matter which Admin is in. The guide will have larger range of uncertainty, and they’ll say shit like they’re exploring all options and derisking them. At worst, they’ll pull the guidance. The earning call isn’t the CR board… unless maybe if the CEO is lourenco goncalves
  14. Going long vacation time and shorting your dumb ass on the forum was a great trade.
  15. If you believe that big consumer retailers are economic bellwethers, and they have good insights, insider access, and/or influence: -Walmart just last week cited tariff uncertainty, but reiterated its previous forward guidance for annual sales growth -Target expects Q1 pressure, but reiterated FY flat sales, with even small increase in margin. This was said in March, and their next earnings call is in 1mo -Costco didn't guide on earnings, but still plans to grow #warehouses in the US. This was early March, and only 1/3rd of their goods are imported
  16. what could he have possibly meant by this? its a complete riddle.
  17. Passive eetirement account is -100bps behind SPX. Trading account is +300bps ahead due to FX futures (VX futures flat YTD). Spent the last 4 weeks around Europe with extended family while you spent it thinking about me. Miss you too bb 🤗
  18. i said what i said 😤
  19. Superhero could've met the love of his life and ya'll scared him out of it.
  20. The Executive Office isn’t something you made up and get to define. The EO has been established for almost 100 years, and includes Offices and Entities like the Council of Economic Advisors…of which Howard Lutnick is not a part. Dept of Comm wasnt in the EOP of Obama, or Trump 1, or Biden, or now with Trump 2. You hate Elon, which is fully your prerogative. It’s too bad you let your emotion overwhelm your capacity for logic. I said Elon’s motivation for dipping into politics is not financial. Elon’s primary business of EVs, solar panels, and battery storage was 99% “liberal-coded”. Do you think declaring support for the GOP in the most divisive race in America was a move to grow his financial position? Ohhh but there was a line in a Dept of State spreadsheet earmarking $400M for some armored Cybertrucks. Ah ha! The purchase thats neither commenced nor confirmed, that’s worth about 5,000 Cybertrucks. Or in the context their 1,800,000 deliveries per year: 1 day of sales. Complete void of any stake in Tesla, he would still be around the wealthiest person in the world. It’s definitely the money that’s steering his ship. Tim Waltz is prancing on stage about his state’s pension fund losing money, but it’s “not improper”. Furthermore, you “dont think he was acting in capacity as governor”??? The fuck you mean the sitting governor was acting as? People came to the politically-organized event to see Minnesota’s preeminent duck hunter? Would you concede Howard Lutnick made his comment about Tesla stock while “not acting in capacity” a cabinet member, but instead as a lifelong business executive of a financial services firm? (No you fucking wouldnt.) You only spew hypocritical shit because you tricked yourself into believing it.
  21. Stayed at home this weekend and look what happened.
  22. yup. fuck switching modes of transport with luggage and especially with multiple people.
  23. Is it not improper for the govt to gloat over dropping stock prices? (of which his state owns half a billion). It's improper for seccom to promote a domestic car brand's stock, but not improper for potus to stage promotion opp of a foreign car? What's the difference -- in *your* definition -- between 'improper' vs 'political unwise' here? Is it a consequential legal thing, or are you just weaseling with the words? The fact that you don't know that Dept Comm is not part of executive office should give you pause...
  24. A current state governor who just ran to be Vice President. Is a politician of that prominence shitting on an American company as egregious as SecCom boosting an American company? (The funny thing is while he was gloating about this, his state's pension fund owned 1.8M shares of the company...) How about an analogy that you'll understand: Biden celebrates the energy beverage industry, it helps keeps him awake for 2 hours a day. He brings a can of Red Bull (Austrian) and Celcius (US) to the podium. He signs an executive order mandating the government buys more energy drinks. And then he says "Thank you Celcius, you invented the energy drink industry; you started it all". The thrust of this conversation started on accusation of cherry picking of winners and losers. Do you think that was not a deliberate cherry pick against Monster, and a perversion of obvious facts? Cool of you to bring up Soros. He donated a minimum of $200M since the last midterm to his preferred party. Do you find issues with his access to levers of power in government? Has the Republican party provided massive finance assistance to Elon's companies? Tesla's govt loan (which it was the first to pay back) was under Obama. The bulk of SpaceX's contracting was under Obama and Biden. The EV policies were all Dem pushed. Trump campaigned on repealing EV mandates and the federal credit. And while he's now chums with Elon, that remains his policy aims. You Elon's involvement in politics is motivated by money? Do you remember people burning up Bud Light factories and store displays? Maybe bring up a point of discussion that won't backfire...
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