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52-80

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Posts posted by 52-80

  1. 20 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

    I watched some kid from MorningStar on Bloomberg last night discussing the call with Elmo in Tesla’s economic future.  He repeatedly said that everything was fine, that Elon often has several balls in the air at one time so he is spending time in the government’s not a big deal, and it doesn’t look like any downside to being in politics in Germany and America.

    WTF? Tesla’s brand recognition is so unfavorable that people are showing their hatred of Tesla in Elmo by attacking cars and showrooms.   I think German sales were down about 50%.     My God, while those among Trump supporters who can afford one will buy one, the progressive and Democrats will largely refuse to buy a Tesla chest based on DOGE.

    To have someone on TV who is supposed to be an economic sophisticate tell you that Elmo’s work on DOGE and his support of far right candidates in Germany is a nothing burger makes me seriously doubt everything that’s coming out of economic journalism today.

    The Capital One statements come from their internal analysts assessing general consumer spending - all the stuff customers use their cards on.

    That aside, when there's people on the streets attacking cars and showrooms, the problem there is a bit more acute than worrying about the sophistication of economic journalists.

  2. On 4/17/2025 at 11:51 AM, 52-80 said:

    Don’t think their tone will change. Their job is to express business forecast, not personal political opinions. So their responses will be “measured”, and not publicly spiteful of the Admin, no matter which Admin is in.

    The guide will have larger range of uncertainty, and they’ll say shit like they’re exploring all options and derisking them. At worst, they’ll pull the guidance. 

    The earning call isn’t the CR board… unless maybe if the CEO is lourenco goncalves

    -Southwest Airlines yanked targets for FY25 & 26

    -Texas Instruments broadened its range of spending schedule. Did not “guide” for FY26 revenue, but affirms long term growth expectation. Specifically expects to be unaffected by tariffs — they have operations in China to serve that market. But also their outputs goes into both industrial and consumer products, and hence tied to general economic activity. 

    -Discover Financial released earnings today, but call is scheduled for tomorrow. Stock was up in normal sessions and also now in afterhours. 

    -Capital One said they’re vigilant of tariff related uncertainty and monitoring their downside risk scenarios. So far, all internal metrics and models of consumer spending and credit profiles are all positive/optimistic. 

    So…nobody going CR yet. 

    Visa, UPS, Qualcomm, and Apple are the notable ones on calendar for next week. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. 2 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:


    Then all three of us spent the next week sleeping together in that one bed. Good times.

    How does the particle board take that weight?

    Im quite sure Ikea has a track-hung system similar to this. The hardware stores also have their generic versions. 

    I did some sleuthing, and actually whats now-known as the Elfa system was introduced (coincidentally by a Swede) in the 30s, and patented in the US in 1948. That’s a full decade before this German guy got credited for “inventing” this.

    And somehow theyre asking $1000 for a single bookshelf and a laminate IMG_1250.thumb.jpeg.b9c13a4690c7f6f0d5c3d83ffaf03f28.jpegdesk board. Nuts. IMG_1249.thumb.jpeg.b36cc4df2cac1793901b7bfdffe92617.jpeg

    • Rage+1 1
  4. I got obsessed with this modular sofa system designed by a german guy back in the 1960s.  It's not supposed to be haute ware. It was meant to be affordable and accessible, the modularity meant for mass production for apartment dwellers.

    Turns out, if you want to buy a set of sofa + loveseat + chair, it cost the same as a new fucking car.

    Secondly, there's a 60 year old company that exist only to sell this guy's 3 product: the pictured sofas, tables, and Elfa-like shelving system.  The pictured shelving system cost about $5000, while the equivalent Elfa cost like $300.

    The prices they're asking is amazing. Presumably they've paid out the patent/licensing for decades and fully amortized all their production tooling and processes, so the economics to churn out this stuff today must be incredible.

    Vitsoe_Tokyo.jpg

     

    • Like 1
  5. 10 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

    Casters. I have been putting casters on every heavy piece of furniture at my studio in Bartlett and I'm wondering why I didn't do this on very piece of furniture I've ever owned. Holy Toledo!. I don't care if they look stupid, I'm rolling this stuff around like I'm Speed Racer. I've convinced myself that casters are the greatest invention of all time after the wheel, which is sort of a caster.  I like casters so much I'm thinking that, if you have a heavy piece of furniture that you would like to roll around the house and if you buy the casters and the beer, I'll come over and put those bad boys on for you.  That's how much I like casters. Casters, man.

    Great. Now casters are going to be tariff'ed at 145%.

  6. YouTube ads.  I got them blocked on desktop, but can't do the same on smartphone unless you run it through browsers or sketchy 3rd party apps. 

    So I caved and paid $8 for the Premium Lite subscription.

     

    What also makes me surly is if you're typing direct from consciousness, you think "8 dollars" but have to invert the order to "$8"

    • Rage+1 1
  7. the idea of gliders is fucking preposterous. i mean, i know the physics behind it, and ive even flown small planes myself, but still... the fact that you just find "updrafts" and get free lift and basically stay in the air forever... thats just complete bullshit.

  8. A sobering reminder of aging (and not following pop music) is how old you think some music is, versus how old it actually is.

    That Gotye song came on the radio and I thought “oh its that recent’ish hit song”. Turns out its from over a decade ago. 

    For a teenager now, just getting into their music phase, that song came out before they were born. 

  9. On 4/13/2025 at 6:48 AM, ATXbronco said:

    Whoever set up this fight failed miserably.

    No way Lopes deserved a title shot.

    Absolutely didnt deserve it, but held on pretty well. 

    Lots of interesting potential FW matchups now that thats shaking out. 

    Would be nice to see either he or Jean Silva knock Yair backdown to where he belongs. 

  10. 9 hours ago, horn4life said:

    So, do you agree or disagree with this statement.  CEO's will be less pessimistic and less critical of the governments role with tariffs in their forward looking guidance. Simply as I think they know that, if they say something overly honest (thus critical) they could face swift retribution from the White House, in a manner we have not seen before.  True? or False?

    If this is true, then a more flowery picture of the economy going forward will be repeated again and again.  Instead of giving brutally honest forward looking guidance.  I realize there is always some fairy dust sprinkled in.  But I think we are about to see some of the least honest forward looking guidance we have ever heard ...

    Don’t think their tone will change. Their job is to express business forecast, not personal political opinions. So their responses will be “measured”, and not publicly spiteful of the Admin, no matter which Admin is in.

    The guide will have larger range of uncertainty, and they’ll say shit like they’re exploring all options and derisking them. At worst, they’ll pull the guidance. 

    The earning call isn’t the CR board… unless maybe if the CEO is lourenco goncalves

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  11. On 4/15/2025 at 2:49 AM, Colonel Sanders said:

    I guess my point is, you have to keep up with this shit on almost a daily basis, which is impossible for most people. Not sure how you can make purchasing decisions whether you're a consumer or a business in this chaotic environment.  

    Maybe the stock market bottomed out already, but I don't think the economy has, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think that all of this chaos isn't priced in. 

    If you believe that big consumer retailers are economic bellwethers, and they have good insights, insider access, and/or influence:

    -Walmart just last week cited tariff uncertainty, but reiterated its previous forward guidance for annual sales growth

    -Target expects Q1 pressure, but reiterated FY flat sales, with even small increase in margin. This was said in March, and their next earnings call is in 1mo

    -Costco didn't guide on earnings, but still plans to grow #warehouses in the US.  This was early March, and only 1/3rd of their goods are imported

    • Hook 'Em 1
  12. On 2/18/2025 at 2:38 PM, 52-80 said:

    im not meaningfully invested until after tax season.  just swing trading commodities and other futures

     

    On 3/2/2025 at 3:04 PM, 52-80 said:

    No equity longs until after tax season

     

    what could he have possibly meant by this? its a complete riddle. 

    • Haha 1
  13. On 4/5/2025 at 7:53 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

    I can’t wait to find out how @52-80 navigated this crash and the eventual recovery with perfect market timing… weeks after the dust settles of course.  Our resident simp has been very quiet lately. 

    Passive eetirement account is -100bps behind SPX. Trading account is +300bps ahead due to FX futures (VX futures flat YTD).  Spent the last 4 weeks around Europe with extended family while you spent it thinking about me.  Miss you too bb 🤗

  14. On 3/28/2025 at 12:58 PM, Dahobbs said:

    1) The Department of Commerce is an executive department. That is why there is a Secretary of Commerce that is a member of the president's cabinet. It is literally called a "department" because it is a department of the executive branch. Maybe you are the one that should take a pause and realize you don't know what the fuck you're talking about about. 

    2) the role of the department of commerce, its congressionally authorized role, is to promote growth of the economy generally. It isn't to prop up a particularly favored entity. It is absolutely improper for the secretary of commerce, acting in official capacity, to pitch the purchase of Tesla stock to the general public. At least if we were talking about pitching the actual cars I could see an argument for it being within the scope of the "commerce" job. 

    3) conflict of interest rules exist to prevent someone having their private interests interfere with their public duties. Elon's relationship to Trump and his position as a quasi government official, absolutely creates a conflict of interest when another government agency tries to influence the stock price of Tesla. It is the same problem as if the Secretary of Commerce starting imploring the public to buy Trump's stock. It is blindingly obvious that this is improper. You're not winning this argument. 

    4) State government's and their officials are free to criticize private companies. They do it all the time. They even bring lawsuits against them. (E.g., see Texas AG's statements and suits against many private entities). There isn't anything categorically improper about it. Further, from what I saw of his comments, I don't think they were made in his capacity as governor. 

    5) as discussed in the other posts, there is a universe of difference between a general industry promotional event with several major industry participants and begging the public to buy a particular stock. They aren't the same at all. Stop trying to argue that they are. You just end up looking even more stupid and ignorant. 

    The Executive Office isn’t something you made up and get to define. The EO has been established for almost 100 years, and includes Offices and Entities like the Council of Economic Advisors…of which Howard Lutnick is not a part. 

    Dept of Comm wasnt in the EOP of Obama, or Trump 1, or Biden, or now with Trump 2.

    You hate Elon, which is fully your prerogative. It’s too bad you let your emotion overwhelm your capacity for logic. I said Elon’s motivation for dipping into politics is not financial.

    Elon’s primary business of EVs, solar panels, and battery storage was 99% “liberal-coded”.  Do you think declaring support for the GOP in the most divisive race in America was a move to grow his financial position?

    Ohhh but there was a line in a Dept of State spreadsheet earmarking $400M for some armored Cybertrucks. Ah ha! The purchase thats neither commenced nor confirmed, that’s worth about 5,000 Cybertrucks. Or in the context their 1,800,000 deliveries per year: 1 day of sales.

    Complete void of any stake in Tesla, he would still be around the wealthiest person in the world. It’s definitely the money that’s steering his ship. 

    Tim Waltz is prancing on stage about his state’s pension fund losing money, but it’s “not improper”. Furthermore, you “dont think he was acting in capacity as governor”??? The fuck you mean the sitting governor was acting as? People came to the politically-organized event to see Minnesota’s preeminent duck hunter? 

    Would you concede Howard Lutnick made his comment about Tesla stock while “not acting in capacity” a cabinet member, but instead as a lifelong business executive of a financial services firm? (No you fucking wouldnt.)

    You only spew hypocritical shit because you tricked yourself into believing it. 

  15. 7 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

    If you're by yourself you can take the express in, it's fine.  With the family, hire a car.

    yup. fuck switching modes of transport with luggage and especially with multiple people. 

  16. On 3/26/2025 at 1:10 PM, Dahobbs said:

    Again with the false equivalences. Politicians can shit on private companies all they want. Whether it is politically wise to do so is a different matter, but there is nothing improper about it. The fact that you don't see the difference between the executive office of the United States implying to people to buy the troubled stock of his billionaire friend and the governor of state making a joke criticizing the actions of said billionaire friend says a lot about you.  

    Is it not improper for the govt to gloat over dropping stock prices? (of which his state owns half a billion). It's improper for seccom to promote a domestic car brand's stock, but not improper for potus to stage promotion opp of a foreign car?

    What's the difference -- in *your* definition -- between 'improper' vs 'political unwise' here? Is it a consequential legal thing, or are you just weaseling with the words?

    The fact that you don't know that Dept Comm is not part of executive office should give you pause...

  17. 17 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

    What politician and what statement are you referring to? I'm not aware of Biden, or any part of his administration, "cheering against" Tesla while he was President. Some other politician who isn't the current executive of the country criticizing Tesla or Elon would be completely irrelevant to this discussion. 

    A current state governor who just ran to be Vice President.

    Is a politician of that prominence shitting on an American company as egregious as SecCom boosting an American company?

    (The funny thing is while he was gloating about this, his state's pension fund owned 1.8M shares of the company...)

     

     

    18 hours ago, The Royal We said:

    I'll attempt an answer even though you keep dodging every question coming your way here. I'd say it's unseemly, but I understand. To put it in terms that you might understand, let's say someone, (George Soros?) owned a company and that company's stock made up a huge chunk of his wealth. And let's say he used that wealth to help his preferred party win a presidential election and buy himself unprecedented access to levers of power in government. A government that has provided massive financial assistance to many of ole George's  companies btw. Could you understand why someone like Greg Abbott might celebrate publicly if George's company stock price tumbled? I seem to remember this exact thing happening with the "controversy" with Bud Light, 'member?

    You keep doing this for some reason. Was Jeep the only company invited to the White House, or was it Jeep, GM, and Ford? Indeed, which White House guests have more American employees?

    How about an analogy that you'll understand: Biden celebrates the energy beverage industry, it helps keeps him awake for 2 hours a day. He brings a can of Red Bull (Austrian) and Celcius (US) to the podium. He signs an executive order mandating the government buys more energy drinks. And then he says "Thank you Celcius, you invented the energy drink industry; you started it all".

    The thrust of this conversation started on accusation of cherry picking of winners and losers. Do you think that was not a deliberate cherry pick against Monster, and a perversion of obvious facts?

    Cool of you to bring up Soros.  He donated a minimum of $200M since the last midterm to his preferred party. Do you find issues with his access to levers of power in government?

    Has the Republican party provided massive finance assistance to Elon's companies? Tesla's govt loan (which it was the first to pay back) was under Obama. The bulk of SpaceX's contracting was under Obama and Biden. The EV policies were all Dem pushed. Trump campaigned on repealing EV mandates and the federal credit. And while he's now chums with Elon, that remains his policy aims. You Elon's involvement in politics is motivated by money?

    Do you remember people burning up Bud Light factories and store displays?

    Maybe bring up a point of discussion that won't backfire...

     

  18. 6 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

    Other posters have raised some of my answers to this already, but c'mon man. I know you're a card carrying member of the elon fan boi club, but you're really grasping at straws here. 

    The original post you responded to was my reaction to the current Secretary of Commerce suggesting the American public go out and buy a single company's stock. Coincidentally I'm sure, but the CEO of that company is also the largest donor to the GOP and (a lot of people are saying) the shadow POTUS. Did Raimondo (or Wilbur Ross or Pritzker or Bryson or...) ever make a similar suggestion? I think you are confused by the umbrage being taken here.

    Biden did invite execs from GM, Ford, and Stellantis to the White House for meetings while excluding Tesla. I don't know why for sure, but I assume it had something to do with Tesla being the only non-union car manufacturer in the country. Is that really "actively cheering against" Tesla's stock?

    I know nuance is tough these days, but ain't no fucking ballpark on this one.

     

    I know you have a blindspot but can you comment on a govt official on stage celebrating a domestic company's value going down. Can you compare the egregiousness of that to a govt official cheering for 1, but not all domestic companies? That was last week, w/ a current governor and ex VP candidate, not the ex President.

    The Biden WH event was not a union event, signing a jobs order.  It was an EV event, signing an EV order. Don't need nuance to figure that one out.

    If you want to argue the manufacturing and employment angle -- which is the right thing for the POTUS to promote-- which company employs more workers in America, the American one, or the Dutch one?

     

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