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Posts posted by 52-80
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If you dont listen to the Wu Tang Clan on bond diversification, who *are* you supposed to listen to? Some guys on a message board?
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1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:
My US equity exposure is all in value mutual funds because I think they’re slightly less susceptible to the burst coming to the AI bubble.
Even if signals portend an AI bubble, I think its an indictment of the EU/RoW that they were never even involved in the first place (besides Mistral?).
Neither were they comparably significant in streaming, social media, robotics, cloud computing, fintech, or any other major trends. They get credit for perhaps clean energy, robotics, and fat pills. Not enough, IMO.
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im also using internal/europe interchangeably. because most of the time we're referring to dax/ftse/stoxxx anyway and nobody cares about ibovespa or nifty50 or asx
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3 hours ago, LCHorn said:
Kara Swisher brought this up on the same podcast with Scott Galloway--investing in the big tech firms, because so much of their revenue is generated internationally, is basically a way to keep money here but diversity into foreign markets.
Scott Galloway and Kara Swisher agreeing on something is a pretty good warning sign to do the opposite.
I agree with the sentiment that US markets are stretched. I don't agree that internationals are the answer. The US outperformance hasnt been just a flash phenomenon -- its been true for any period of time this century you reference from, before/during/after any major economic events, Dotcom, GFC, Covid, etc.
There is a good reason the US indices have outperformed Europe: nothing of their regulatory environment or tax regime or consumer capacity or even appetite suggest fertile grounds for economic growth. Can someone name offhand 5 European success stories? Spotify... Adyen... and... LVMH? maybe some Pharmaceuticals? The US has 10x SAPs for every 1x of Germany's.
Earnings growth for all the Europe indices is half of that in the US (~5% vs 10%). If you correct that for that in their ntm P/E, the ratios all fall back into line.
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18 hours ago, Tailgate said:
Thread is starting to go cloak room…
Long calls on cash-delivered CR futures. imo
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Saw an Audi ETron GT at a lot. I actually dont like the looks of its, but this one had brakes that caught my eye. Gigantic saucers of a thing, but especially in a mirror-perfect finish.
So apparently, a few companies offer them aftermarket, but Porsche also do them as 'Surface Coated Brakes' using tungsten carbide. Can't be too compromised if Porsche puts them on the Cayenne. And the ETron has regenerative braking so friction brakes arent leaned on too much.
Catchy stuff.
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I've run through so many shitty 3rd party wired and wireless charging shit* I'd advise to spend the premium and buy stuff endorsed by Apple through their store. It's the least bad heuristic**.
Never used that specific wireless charger, but recently bought a Mophie multi-port wired charger and it's the least shitty version of that device of the 5+ that I have.
*even "good" brands like Anker is shit.
**it's not infallable. recently had a bunch of fresh OEM Apple lighting cables fail too.
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42 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:
How did that work out for them at the end again?
What he meant to say was don't overreact and just stay the course, like the Titanic.
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1 minute ago, VABuckeye said:
Policy is created every day in a 4 AM tweet. Then it changes the next day at 4 AM. Rinse and repeat.
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I bragged on the Intel thread about some equity + options positions that were absolutely stonking. And now they're just a hair above profitable. (Gonna grab more)
Nibbled on the Target drop a while back, and that was great too, except now its sliding into the red.
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On 3/4/2025 at 8:21 AM, 52-80 said:
I have standing buy orders at 570 too. If we die, we die together 🫡
Apparently I had SPY575 orders, and those just hit. The 570s havent triggered just yet... maybe today or tomorrow?
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In Europe atleast, where employment protection are generally higher, most people subject to RIF who involve a lawyer ended up getting 25/50% improvement on their severance.
I know a particularly egregious case, where the guy was a clear underperformer and deserved to get cut with 0 recompense but he gamed the system masterfully.
When the axe was coming for him, he took a year off on paid medical leave - citing stress-induced ailments and such - which afforded him *more* protection. When offered a small multiple of salary to leave, his lawyer drew out the negotiation for another 6 months while he sat at home “recovering”. Employer finally had to settle for a sizeable multiple of his salary.
He wasn’t an executive either, just a mid level employee in my group. And his resume involved a new company every few years (unusual for Europe), so now we realize he must have already played this game a few times. -
On 3/4/2025 at 5:59 PM, thunderlounge said:
Your pain, I feel it.
Last night I was barraged by the wife bitching about how she is less inclined lately to go outside on break because she has to constantly listen to one of her work friends constantly bitch about one thing or another. She says it’s such a beating.
Huh. No idea what that must be like 🙄
i hope to god this was you
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On 3/4/2025 at 3:45 AM, troph said:
I’d also add that apart from maybe rivian you’d be hard pressed to find a better EV than the model S. Those saying it seems cheap, I don’t know about the Y and the 3 but I’ve not thought the X or the S were cheap. Extremely simple yes. I still enjoy driving it. But if I had to chose now I’d get a used Rivian.
I've always found the comments that the interior is "cheap" was a misguided critique by those judging just from photos.
Obviously, tastes are subjective. What I really mean is that in typical cars, the driver is enveloped by the dash with its instrument cluster and centerstack with banks of gauges and buttons. And on that basis you would would say those components are nicer in an Audi than they are in a Ford. You can't avoid them. They're prominently in your face.
In a Tesla, those things are entirely absent. The dash is low and the most visible thing is the greenhouse/exterior view. So the interior is neither nice or cheap, it's that when you're actually driving the car, it's simply not noticeable at all.
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Switched from 14 Pro to 16 standard and…dang… this 60hz max refresh rate sucks.
Ordered online, never seen in person. I had 12Pro and 14Pro and thought the 16Pro would be physically larger (its not), and I never used any of the photographic features on the Pros so I went standard.
Turns out you dont notice the 60Hz jerkiness when you upgrade to 120Hz ProMotion display. But you do notice jerkiness when you downgrade from it.
Kinda like watching the occasional standard def programming when youre used to 1080P.
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On 3/3/2025 at 9:18 PM, Nole-4-Life said:
I say this with a spotless record of staunch heterosexuality....Spence is one put together dude.
bros recognizing dudes. aint nothing wrong with that.
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Fucking UNO reverse card
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58 minutes ago, horn4life said:
Right there with you!
Sold March $57 calls on 1/3 as my first try to get some cash for downside, and bought $39 puts, and sold $57 on the remaining 2/3 a little later as the gains receded.. The good news is that first 1/3 of calls I sold paid for the cost of the protection/income of the other 2/3. Learned from not keeping my PLTR stops tighter on at least some of my holdings. And that cost me.
So at least I have some downside protection and a some more room to run to the upside.
Todays VIX, VIX futures, and all its ETP products are red for the day 😆
The vol scare today =
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Im a net seller of call options on 90% of my UVXY transactions but in my IRA i dont fuck with uncapped risk positions so I bought some puts on it. 🙈
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17 hours ago, Baboontyme said:
I'm wide open and want to see what's out there. I'm DTW based but I am open to looking out of Chicago, East Coast, West Coast and seeing what routes they have overseas in either direction.
For cash purchases, registeres flyertalk member get access to Mileage Run Deals and Premium Fare Deals and theres always interesting shit in there if you are fairly flexible
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You can always ask on flyertalk.
There are people who make hobbies or sidejobs out of optimizing your points basket and finding good redemption strategies.They usually charge a few hundred, which if you redeem for e.g. 3 premium seats with $10k street value can seem like an absolute bargain.
Sometimes they launch independent sites which could be like the ones @someguyshared. (I didnt check those sites specifically and havent used these things in ages).
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Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:
So the 40+ year "War on Drugs" could have been solved with some tariffs all those years ago? Jesus, man.
Shoot the Times, not the reposter
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30 minutes ago, horn4life said:
Good to know that on April 2nd, we will find out what the actual tariffs are going to be. According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. These tariffs are going to stop fentanyl, the business ones will be revealed on April 2nd. I thought that might shave off my pre-market. The more I hear him talk, the more I feel very comfy betting against the market right now. Very comfortable.
Exactly 1 week ago, the NYT reported that a bunch of Mexican traffickers expressed genuine fear over increased arrest/prosecution risk. This in response to Mexico extraditing 29 traffickers to the US due to tariff pressure and also possibility of direct US action via designating them as terrorists.
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1 hour ago, Goofyboy said:
What is UVIX? I read about it, but I don’t quite get it.
This is my flavor of spice. Practically it's a short term instrument to make a 1-day bet on vol. Technically, it's a derivative of a derivative of a derivative - it's turtles all the way down - which makes it really unsuitable for anything but 1-day holding.
Options prices are notionally risk-adjusted. The market determines the prices. Therefore, the prices of options on S&P 500 Index (SPX) reflect what the market think of as the likelihood of price change of SPX, aka volatility.
The derivatives involved:
1. VIX is an amalgamation of the prices of SPX options expiring in ~30 days . i.e. the SPX 30D forward vol.
2. VIX futures are prices on bets of the VIX value at monthly intervals in the future. i.e. what will VIX be in April, May, June, etc
These things are directionally linked
3. UVIX continually buys and sells VIX futures contracts, so that its 1-day exposure is roughly equivalent to the 2x change in VIX.
There are some persistent qualities in the futures term structure that makes the mechanics of #3 a very bad idea. It results in the value of UVIX degrading over the long time. This is why it's bad for people to buy, but can be good in a lottery ticket type of way. The sponsor of UVIX don't care because people buy it and they earn money on the fees.Because of the effect of #3 above, I like to sell options on UVIX and UVXY, which is mostly very fun, and sometimes scary, but mostly fun.
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Markets still falling like whoa
in Business and Markets
Posted
What many people dont understand is that under the PostModern Portfolio Theory, the ideal 60/40 portfolio actually refers to an allocation of 60% Trumpcoin and 40% Kamalacoins