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2020-21 NBA Thread of Dominance


ztejas
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  • 2 weeks later...

This thread hasnt been getting much attention. Noticed that a lot of underdogs have been winning straight up. So I went back and checked the games from 1/1 thru last night. Underdogs have straight up won 33 of the last 56 games. If you would have bet 100 on the underdog moneyline on each game, you would have a profit of $4,368. that blind strategy would have been a winner on each of the 8 individual days. I'm sure the 'rona and empty arenas is responsible for a lessening of home court advantage, but it still seems like an unusual oddity. I'm sure the books will be adjusting sooner rather than later. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

I really haven't put any money on the NBA since opening night. I saw that OKC was getting a ridiculous 9.5 against BKN tonight. Went back to throw some change on it and it's down to BKN -7.

Fuck.

I'm with you @Blotto that lines have been all over the place this season. I'm generally not a fan of spread bets in basketball, though. They can get covered in either direction so quickly at the end of games.

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  • 3 weeks later...
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  • 2 months later...

I'd hammer BKN ML tonight against SA as long as it stays -200 or better. Harden and KD should both be playing and San Antonio has been boom or bust without much consistency. I like BKN -4.5 too, but I'm not big on basketball spread bets. 

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2 hours ago, ztejas said:

I'd hammer BKN ML tonight against SA as long as it stays -200 or better. Harden and KD should both be playing and San Antonio has been boom or bust without much consistency. I like BKN -4.5 too, but I'm not big on basketball spread bets. 

Easy $51 on $100 tonight. Remains to be seen on the 4.5/5.0 cover but like I said I'm not a spread guy when it comes to basketball. 

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I don't watch much of the NBA all year but I see one bullshit line and then get hooked and live bet the next one and win $124 in one night on like $350 risked - much of it never in doubt.

The way the numbers have worked for me I could probably make a living of it but I can't think of many lower stress jobs.

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Had a rough stretch on Saturday. Lost $90 (about half of it was a team losing by 14 that I had +13.5) and the last $30 of it was just stupid chasing.

Hammered Lakers ML against NO with my remaining positive balance on the week to pick up $20 back.

I liked CHA ML tonight and we see how that worked. 

I then got BOS ML at about +140 and just hedged it so I'll at least break even tonight - maybe finish like 4 bucks over. 

By the way - there's nothing better than getting a great live hedge in in sports betting (especially early in the game).

Just sitting on your ass stress free watching a ball game in which the outcome doesn't matter but at the same time knowing you are going to win money on it. 

Edited by ztejas
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So today I risked in total $220 across 9 different tickets - ranging between $10 and $60 each. 

I ended up dead fucking even. To the dollar. No loss, no gain.

I couldn't do that again in a million years if I tried. 

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Today I like 

Boston +9

LAL -2

DAL +7

Not sure I'm going to touch anything today though. Maybe LAL ML which should be around +120. Of the spread bets I like Dallas the best... again. 

I know it's still LeBron but I'm nervous if I'm a Lakers fan.

I think there is zero chance BOS wins but +9 can be easy to cover - especially backdoor if it's over and KD gets pulled early. Didnt check what Brooklyn is first half but I'd like them to cover that much better. 

This ended up mostly correct. I typed LAL ML should be around +120 I meant -120. Only bet I made was Dallas +7 - easy cover. Lakers win. BKN covered 1st half easy - BOS just sucked the whole way through.

Edited by ztejas
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