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Storm the Field

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  1. The continued bleeding of Trump's approval numbers is a sight to behold. It just keeps going down. Current 538 average is 40.1/55.9 among all polls. 40.1% approval is at it's lowest level in 17 months. There is no precedent whatsoever for an incumbent to win with such a terrible net approval. He's much closer to Bush in July '92 (-17) than Bush July '04 (-0.8) or Obama July '12 (-0.3).
  2. I had the displeasure of seeing Eric "The Dumb One" Trump on Fox and Friends this morning. Literally said Joe Biden has not stepped foot outside of his house in 4 months, is totally incapable of answering unscripted questions, can't form a cohesive thought, and "does not have the aptitude to debate my father." I do appreciate them setting the bar essentially on the floor for Biden. Not particularly to hard to clear considering he just finished a perfectly normal 30 minute speech at a factory in PA. That's a big fucking basement he's hiding in.
  3. You'll never guess how many lame trash-can banging jokes ended up in the replies to Astros tweet that the game feed today has no sound.
  4. Imagine reading this tweet during normal times.
  5. Occasional reminder that this ain't 2016. RCP 2-Way Race 7/8/16 Clinton +4.7 (45.6/40.9). RCP 2-Way Race 7/8/20 Biden +8.7 (49.6/40.9) Trump actually pulled ahead for about a week late in July and Clinton's margin averaged about 4.5 through late summer and fall, dropping down to just 1.5 the weekend before the election. Between February and November of 2016, Trump held a lead in 25 polls. So far from February to today, Trump has lead 1 single poll, back on February 20th. Trump's smallest deficit at ANY point in the 2020 race so far has been 4.3, and that was on the final weekend of February, right before everything went to shit.
  6. I think b/c it's a purely online poll, they don't push leaners and probably also get respondents skipping certain questions. Might explain why they consistently show 18-20% as undecided/not voting/other. You tend to see the same thing with Reuters/Ipsos, which is also online. Their RV totals always add up to anywhere from 80-85%. Biden's number is the one that jumps around between 43 and 48 while Trump rarely budges from 37 or 38.
  7. Welp, give em points for being consistent in their shittiness. If you drill down on their numbers, they're just as screwy as always. Not credible margins for Biden among key voting blocks (Blacks, College Grads). Biden only getting 39% to Trump's 37% in the Northeast!!! 10% of Dems voting for Trump, while 9% are voting third-party or haven't decided!
  8. I see ol' Sam Wang didn't hang it up after 2016 when he famously put Clinton at >99% chance to win and promised to eat a bug on live TV if Trump even made it to 240 EV. https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/12/politics/pollster-eats-bug-after-donald-trump-win/index.html
  9. What a garbage push poll. Check out some of the questions: “Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia? “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?” "Do you agree with the New York Times that Mount Rushmore is a racist monument?" Poll was conducted by The Democracy Institute, a libertarian think tank made up of right-wing Brits and Canucks. This is an actual quote from the pollster:
  10. Hoo Boy. Rasmussen Reports 7/8: Biden 50 Trump 40 Biden +12 with Independents. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_jul08
  11. You've got people earnestly speculating that a mentally ill musician with a history of flamboyant publicity stunts is going to run a kamikaze presidentical campaign that will pull enough votes to throw the election. Meanwhile, a former Senator/Governor is writing absurd political fan-fiction that Biden will be forced, against his will, by a minority faction within his own party, to pick a far-left VP and Cabinet who will summarily dethrone him upon taking office, ushering in a radical progressive hellscape. How much more apparent can the writing on the wall be that GOP talking heads think Trump 2020 is doomed and they are flailing for anything, no matter how absurd, to hold onto?
  12. Yeah, I noticed that, but they don't apply nearly as much adjustment as they do for RR numbers. 538 left the RMG numbers basically as-is. For Rasmussen Reports approval polls, they usually knock 3-4 points off of approval and tack on 1-2 to disapproval.
  13. Once again guys, Scott Rasmussen left Rasmussen Reports years ago and formed his own polling group called RMG. They're two totally diferrent polls. RMG polls don't have anywhere near the GOP bias.
  14. Nobody ever expected Food & Travel to merge with IPIHB, but nobody's opposed. Also, really guys, not a single "I'd eat that. Food looks good too!" Y'all slacking.
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