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Storm the Field

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  1. Both NYT and ABC polls have Biden wrecking shop in the Philly burbs. If you average the 2 together, he's up 67-32 in SE Pennsylvania. Those are Obama '08 numbers.
  2. Packing and moving always sucks, but this was our first time moving out of a long-term house (7 years) with all the crap we've accumulated over the past decade. Moving out of an apartment usually takes half a day maybe. I spent the better part of this past weekend just clearing out my garage. I technically can't go to my local dump again until October, I've used up all my trips for September.
  3. Saw a post on FB about some upcoming road/utility projects in GO that are sure to cause some headaches over the next 4 years. Similar to how they re-paved and widened Alba and re-did the drainage along that corridor, looks like plans are to do the same on Golf from ~2021-23 and then Sue Barnett from ~2023-25. https://www.gardenoaks.org/gocc-home/neighborhood-info/streetwork/
  4. Wife and I managed to cause a real fun problem for ourselves. Closing on selling our house next week, but our new build probably has another ~3 weeks to go until it's move-in ready. Couldn't do a lease-back b/c new owners need to move in very soon after closing. Starting Tuesday, it's us and our 2 dogs in a 2 room extended stay until the 20th. Let's hope we're still alive/married by the time that's over.
  5. We can probably shut this thread down for a while. The current forecasts covering the next 10-14 days are about as nice as you could ever hope for this time of year. Lots of sun and significantly drier and cooler, especially towards the end of next week and on into next weekend.
  6. Strong batch of polls out for JB. Marist (National LV, 9/11-16) 52-43 in the head to head or 49-42-7 with third-parties included (seems 4-5 points higher than actual 3rd party vote share will be). CIVIQS (Midwest RV, 9/11-15) MI: 53-42 WI: 51-44 PA: 52-45 OH: 45-48
  7. Polling thoughts this morning: I think it's past time to take AZ out of the toss-up column and at least consider it "Lean D." Another MI +8 poll out this morning. MI is probably closer to "Likely D" than "Lean D." It's been weeks since anything came out less than +5. 538 and Economist both have it at 88% Biden. Clinton won Maine by just 3 points in 2016, and lost ME-2 by 10. NTY polls out today show Biden +16 in ME and +2 in ME-2. There are scenarios where ME-2 could be the deciding vote. This poll seems to be pretty good evidence that Trump really is losing ground with older white voters given that ME is oldest, whitest state in the nation. Would also seem to bode well for NH not being a nail-biter this time around. Still amazing how abruptly VA went from red-->fuschia-->magenta-->blue over the last 30 years. It's not even on anyone's radar this cycles. Even the betting markets have written this one off. Biden up to 77% (538) and 86% (Economist) based on strong string of state polls lately.
  8. Trumpworld has spent nearly a year essentially arguing that Biden is so thoroughly ravaged by age that his brain scans must surely resemble swiss cheese. Further, that the secret cabal of anarcho-lefists which are actually in control of the Democratic party are holding the barely-sentient shell of this sundowning geezer hostage at his home in Delaware and refuse to allow him to speak or participate in the debates lest he leak cortical fluid on the moderator before short-circuiting and shitting his pants. So, when Biden actually comes out and gives a normal political speech or participates in a coherent town hall, it must be the case that (i) he's being pumped full of some heretofore unknown neurotropic wonder tonic that wears off the second he leaves the stage, or (ii) it's all an elaborate production involving planted audience members, hidden teleprompters and green screen trickery.
  9. The blastfurnace is coughing and sputtering. Bout time to shut her down for fall maintenance. Time to start enjoying mornings and evenings again. Dewpoints above 70 are kindly encouraged to fuck right off and never return.
  10. Not even the Trump-obsessed betting markets lump those 3 together. Current odds: AZ: Biden 63% FL: Biden 53% OH: Trump 65%
  11. Let's hope $40 can be a solid floor. Only problem is that I think, at least through the end of this year and start of 2021, the ceiling is not much taller than the floor. I'm struggling to come up with a way we get to $50 or more unless/until a majority of workers return to their offices and business and vacation travel picks up. Gotta get back to at least 1M passengers going through airports each day. That would still only be 50% of normal. I don't see that happening until next Spring maybe.
  12. ^^^^ Trump won this district (Plano/Frisco/McKinney) by 14 in '16. Romney won by almost 30 in '12. DEM internal poll, so probably overly optimistic, but if Trump's only winning suburban Collin County by 5-8 that's a noticeable trend towards purple. Would make some sense given that I'd imagine there is a fairly high % of whites w/ college degrees in this district, which is the demographic where Trump has been struggling bigly.
  13. Not really true. Scenario 1: Trump wins FL, but Biden picks up WI, MI, PA & AZ, all of which seem more likely than not at this point, Biden wins by 40. Scenario 2: Same as Scenario 1 but Biden fails to grab one of WI, MI, or AZ, Biden still wins by 10-15. Secnario 3: Same as Scenario 1 but Biden fails to grab PA, but picks up ME-2 or NE-2, Biden wins a nailbiter.
  14. 1. There hasn't been a poll of Michigan less than Biden +5 in weeks. You're probably looking at RCP which excludes several recent polls while including a garbage Trafalgar poll from 3 weeks ago, dragging down the average. Current 538 numbers: MI +7.4 polls, 87% to win PA +4.8 polls, 75% to win 2. This point in 2016 is when Clinton's numbers started tanking and alarm bells should have sounded. She was polling at 45% nationally vs. Trump's 44% (vs ~49% to ~43% now). PA lead dropped several points a week later.
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