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Not a cat

Math odds that look good but aren't

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I was just helping my son with some of his probability homework when I remembered reading of a clever game a gambling operator ran that gave a player even odds of the player rolling two dice to get a double 6 in 19 rolls.

The average player thought he had the better of the deal with a 19/36 chance of winning or a 2.7% edge.  Actually, the odds of not rolling a double 6 in 19 rolls is 1- (35/36 to the 19th power) or 58.55 so the house actually had a huge 8.55% edge.  

I know that gambling inherently takes advantage of players' lack of math skills, but this seemed a clever way to take advantage of people that knew just enough about math to make them actually think they had the edge.  They'd keep playing figuring they were on a cold streak and all they had to do was wait for the law of large numbers to kick in.

Anyway, not much point to the post other than I always found this type of shit fascinating.  

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mpu


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