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VolenteHawk

MLB Betting 2020

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Back for another year.  Taking Zac Gallen to avoid a sweep, better side of the pitching matchup at plus money.

Diamondbacks +114

 

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Didn't wanna leave you in here all by your lonesome :)

Starting last season, for the most part, I've been paying less attention to the pitching matchups, except in obvious cases.  With openers, 6 man rotations, starters 3-6 only going 4 innings by design, seems like starters are less important.  Generally, just sticking with good teams with good odds, regardless of who's starting.

Today, I got CLE just for grins to have early action.  I like the Rays -135, they are the better team and even though some of the Braves have come back from COVID, that's still gotta affect them.  Cubs +103, good odds on the better team.  Padres -139, road favorites but I still believe the Giants are abysmal despite splitting with the Dodgers.  And I gotta say, something really fishy about that Astros line.  Even taking into account the starters, two top teams, the road team should not be a favorite.

 

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Yeah I'm with you on the Cubs.  Although my line is -101 right now.

Going with the Dbags +110.  Only playing that one to get some early action, don't feel that strongly about it.

Nats -172 as a visitor in their own park with Scherzer going.

Indians +107 just cuz the White Sox suck.

Thinking about continuing to ride the Rays +106 at ATL.

Depending how all that goes, might go Padres -178, but that seems expensive.  And LAA/SEA over 9.  Rendon active and SEA bullpen looking rough.

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Two plays for today.  A fade of Porcello and a coinflip-ey home team behind their "ace".

Braves -127

Rockies -105

 

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I think I'll follow you on both of those.  Also like Rays -182 at Orioles, kinda expensive.  Might try to parlay that with something else.  Liking over 9 A's/Mariners.  Sea bullpen sucks.  Also liking LAD -120 at Arizona.

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Nice call on the Reds yesterday.  They are good value again today, at +141 but still a tough play.

I like Minny in the early game, -191 but they are good and Pitt is...not.

Also look for LAD to bounce back -129 at SD.

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Like Toronto today. I bet it and my book that has been dealing the best lines immediately moved it 5 cents, like they did with the Reds two days ago.  That’s annoying and weird. I’ll watch it. Anyway, I make the true line 105 to 110, so anything better than 115 is good.

Blue Jays +121

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@VolenteHawk Are you playing any parlays or straight? Player props? Futures?

I like Oakland (-145) today with Montas on the mound and Philly (-131) against the Red Sox and their ten game losing streak. 

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This thread is all straight bets so far, lay a unit on dogs and lay to win a unit on favorites.

I usually have season win totals and will pick up some division winner stuff as the season goes along...but with a short season and potential for canceled games, I had no conviction on win totals.  None of my books are even dealing division winners, but even if they were I'd probably be staying away.  The new playoff format probably means 2nd place teams only push so hard to even try to the division.  I'd image teams solidly in 2nd will prioritize other organization goals ahead of winning.  I suppose for the right plus money I'd take a flyer on teams that are a couple of games back but that I think are the best in their division if it was offered (Astros, Indians).

 

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 I have a player prop bet today on Trevor Story vs George Springer for most total bases. Story is at even money but he's been red hot lately and has a .298 career BA vs Greinke with 5 HRs in 47 AB.  Springer hasn't had a multi-hit game since Aug 1st and hasn't homered since Aug 5th. Story has a nine-game hit streak in which he's batted .400 with five multi-hit games. I like those numbers.

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Always spooky to have a board that you absolutely love, so here are your Thursday fadeables...

Rays +137

Rockies -127

Orioles +130

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I hope you're on with TB and Bal because I took them. I also took the under today (11.5) between Hou/Col because Colorado has gone under in 17 of the last 20 and the Astros haven't given Javier a lot of run support. 

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19 hours ago, Gourmand said:

 I also took the under today (11.5) between Hou/Col because Colorado has gone under in 17 of the last 20 and the Astros haven't given Javier a lot of run support. 

yikes.  after the wednesday night game i stayed away from this one.  did win 4 units on some live action "will they score" plays.  rangers in the 8th for +266 and angels in the 7th for +233.  love that my new book offers that in lieu of the traditional menage.

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2 hours ago, NOMAAA said:

yikes.  after the wednesday night game i stayed away from this one.  did win 4 units on some live action "will they score" plays.  rangers in the 8th for +266 and angels in the 7th for +233.  love that my new book offers that in lieu of the traditional menage.

yeah that sucked, i had that one straight up and also parlayed with the Astros to win 

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Today I like:

Rays -147 vs Blue Jays.  Although Rays are 17-9 and I swear I've bet on them on all 9 of those losses.

Brewers -132 @ Pirates.  Pit sucks.  Mil should bounce back after a series loss to the Twins.  Which brings me to:

Twins -143 @ Royals.   Been riding the Twins and although they are better at home, I like them today.

A's +105 vs Angels.  Angels suck.  Fiers hasn't done great this year, but Heaney only marginally better.  Can't figure why the A's are home dogs.

Finally, this one vexes me, seems so obvious.  CHW @ CHC O/U is at 9.5.  Why is that number so high?  Yeah Wrigley has traditionally been a hitters park, and the wind is blowing out right now, and DH rule is in effect, but with Keuchel and Lester going, just seems like a sucker bet.

 

 

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My tracking app works best in one month chunks, so here's the posted play update as of this morning...

11-9, +2.6 units

 

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On 8/27/2020 at 9:00 AM, VolenteHawk said:

Two sizable dogs today, both based on numbers that are just too high...

Orioles +166

Phillies + 163

 

Damn I had my best day in a while playing these two.

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Couple of dogs I like today, which are really just grabbing value against slightly overrated starting pitching...

Astros +131

Cubs +125

 

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I'm not sure if it's public money inflating the market or what, but all the underdogs today are mis-priced, so I'm taking all of them...

Astros +150

A's +110

Blue Jays +177

Generally speaking, I think there is SOME value on any underdog getting +120 or better for series prices...but I think the way I'm going to play it is to wait until after the game 1s to see if prices overreact.  I will almost certainly have the Cards to win the series without waiting for game 1, but I haven't dug into the ones that start tomorrow, yet.

 

Edited by VolenteHawk

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It cost me half a unit yesterday, but I still think pricing is wrong...the lines are priced like these are 7 games series, only the Dodgers deserve as much respect as they're getting, IMO.  While it may burn me, I've gotta stick with my conviction, so I'm adding...

Astros +137

Blue Jays +125

White Sox +115

Cardinals +150

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I still don't think I'm wrong about these numbers, the A's/White Sox elimination game is prices correctly IMO.  That Reds abortion is the difference between being down 2/3rds of a unit vs picking up 2 units of profit the last two days.  Small sample size and whatnot.  I still see value in 2 for today...

Reds +127

Cardinals +142

 

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