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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
First you are measuring only costs at the physical data center level. If you measure the entirety of the AI market including software, services, support services, and the whole ecosystem the hardware cost as a percentage of the whole market is going to be below 30%. That’s the market that matters if you are considering whether AI is a bubble. there’s no way adding all the companies using and packaging AI and monetizing it right now when added to the pile don’t drive those numbers as a percentage of the whole down significantly. As for GPUs, EOL isn’t 3 years, the resale or reuse market will take hold and those chips will move downstream, or the owners of those GPUs will cycle through the premium users down to the users that don’t need top tier performance over time. Try 5-8 years. Furthermore the real estate, buildings and utility infrastructure are 100 year assets, that value isn’t going anywhere. It still stands that the big companies fighting over the scarcity of space and power have a decade they can spend fighting for market share before investors will demand results. And you already have smaller market cap companies monetizing AI right now. It’s the same with any new market that has the potential to change everything. We’ve seen this before. Is it over heated? Maybe maybe not, is it going to blow up the market for 2-3 years as a financial crisis? I hardly see a contagion risk here. Could the AI infrastructure market suffer a slow down or down turn? Absolutely, even probably in the next 2-3-5 years. Will a down turn in AI unmask an otherwise rotten economy, probably. Not sure that’s a bubble though. -
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Quinn "La Joya" Ewers - The Man The Myth The Mullet, Now Starting for the Miami Dolphins
That's a scintillating lineup of games, that could almost give this fabulous bowl season a run for its money.
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