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Goredho

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Goredho

  1. 18 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

    also there isn't a projection out there that has him winning the popular vote.  he'll likely lose by 5-6 points, but could still thread the needle a second time.

    Yep.  I have acknowledged the failings of my math and inputs.  Anyone's faith in professional projections after their performance in 2016 is puzzling to me, however.  It is almost like they are missing a variable...

  2. 2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


    First dog hollers.

    What’s at the top of your current wish list?

    Post pics or it doesn’t count.

    I am talking to the owner of that '72 ES-325 that I posted pics of recently, but the bastard went to Hawaii for a couple weeks.  Since I'm kind of moving more digital, I'm also intrigued about a Variax to be a decent swiss army knife for someone who has several holes in his collection.
     

     

  3. One thing about all these scenarios, they all hinge on a relatively small number of people in relatively small geographic areas.  Thank goodness they can't be intelligently targeted for manipulation or otherwise have their voting numbers enhanced or offset.

    Oh, wait... 

  4. 14 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

    No. But if you are going to predict 2020 popular vote we don’t need to reinvent the wheel. Just take 2016 results and adjust. Trump got 63M popular votes in 2016 and you have him getting 95M. L oh fucking L. A 32M increase. Horrible work. But electoral vote is the only thing that matters. 270 has done a good job and shows Democrats as a slight favorite. I agree with that. 

    I apologize for offending the statistics gods.  So I'll come to your side.  The Dems are a slight favorite, before effects of any election fraud, influence, etc... that are actively being sought can be known.

    The Dems are still failing to do much other than buckle against the GOP's efforts to obstruct the voter's awareness of what is transpiring to undermine their vote.

    Make sure to wrap yourself tight in that cloak of statistical invulnerability :D

    • Like 1
  5. 20 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I know you said it wasn't a strict mathematical analysis, but I find it highly unlikely that Trump supporters will increase by 51% but the Trump opposition will only increase by 36%.  Combine that with the "small difference between large numbers" effect that swung key electoral votes Trump's way, and I just don't think it's possible to consider any particular scenario with any degree of confidence.

    I could certainly prove to be wrong and I will be ecstatic if I am, @jimmyjazz.  It boils down to how strongly does that 40% that approves of Trump turn out?  How strongly does everyone else turn out to vote against him?  How are the numbers of those two populations massaged by the inevitable foreign election influence?

    We'll all know one way or the other come November.  I'm going to stand by my assertion that the Dems have played this extremely poorly and that their efforts have not moved the needle nearly enough with that 60% to overcome Trump's rabid base and election meddling.  Unless something drastic happens, impeachment ends with a whimper and Trump stands a strong chance to get re-elected.

  6. 1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

    You get it.  That's exactly how this unfolds.

    Hell, here's a simple, horrifying picture: we've seen how little regard Trump and his cult have for the rule of law now.  Re-election will be a public endorsement that what they're doing is just fine, and indeed there are no consequences.  Imagine how unfettered they'll be THEN.

    Thanks.  I'm going to extrapolate a bit on why I think thats an inevitability.  First, let's just all agree that impeachment does not result in removal and focus on the 2020 election.  This isn't a serious mathematical analysis, but I think it is close enough to see the odds are stacked against Trump losing the election. 

    • There are 250,056,000 potential voters in the US.
    • Trumps job approval rate has had a low of 35% and a high of 46%.  So let's use 40% -- below his current job approval rate -- which is 100,022,400 voters and call them his "base".
    • That means from the 60% that either hate Trump or could go either way, there are 150,033,600 potential voters.  Let's call them the "opposition".
    • His base votes at a very high rate.  They love him and they have bought into their role in this apocalyptic fight for America's soul.  Impeachment has simply galvanized them in their support of Trump.  Let's say they vote at 95%.  That's 95,021,280 votes.
    • Since 2000, there have been 5 presidential elections with an average voter turnout of 54.96%.  The highest voter turnout was in 2008, when America had to also choose where to go after a disastrous Presidency.  They turned out at 58.2%.
    • The 2018 midterm blue wave came from less than an 11% increase in turnout.
    • So let's say we have the same turnout as 2008 PLUS the 11% increased turnout we saw in the 2018 blue wave AND an additional 5% turnout because we are naive optimists.  That's a 74.2% turnout which has not been seen in America since the 1896 presidential election.
    • 74.2% turnout is 185,541,552 voters.  But his base turning out at 95% is 95,021,280 of those voters.  That leaves the opposition with 90,520,272 voters that turned out to vote against Trump.
    • With those numbers, Trump wins 51.2% to 48.8% in the popular vote.
    • This assumes no undue influence on the election, which we know is actively being sought by the President.
    • Who knows how this translates to an electoral college map, but as we've seen the opposition votes are clustered in urban and suburban areas that the electoral college tilts the odds away from.

    Again, this isn't a serious work of mathematics, but it does not have to be.  At best the odds are significantly less than a coin flip.  Property values on Brisket's ledge will be going up dramatically come November.

    And the just-lay-back-and-enjoy-it Dems never forced anyone to testify who responded to their request with:

    Yeah-no-300x219.jpg

  7. 1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

    This is where we part ways. I don't think it's going to involve blood. Americans are so blase about all of this that there hasn't been a single riot. Not one.

    Nearly 200 cities saw civil unrest during LBJ's administration. Trump can barely inspire a large gathering of Democrats to make snarky posters.

     

    1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

    Your snapshot is of where we are.  Mine is of our ultimate destination.  Arguing that the house hasn't burned down yet, there's not even a visible fire, is not a rebuttal to "we built a fucking house out of balsa wood soaked in gasoline, surrounded it with dry brush, and turned loose a herd of toddlers with lighters outside."  That ends in fire.

    The GOP will not let go of power.  They will certainly not let go of it quietly -- they have too much to lose.  They are all-in on their criminal syndicate, and once you're in, you don't get out.

    You are both right.  In the short term nothing happens.  The majority of Americans aren’t aware, those that are aware are concerned but have yet to feel effects in their daily life.  The GOP is using the economy and tax cuts as dopamine while they consolidate their power and let the opposition neuter themselves.  Once impeachment fails, Trump wins this fall and they keep the senate, then we enter a phase where the only outcome is what Brisket describes, and it will get a lot worse before people are compelled to act and it gets better.

    • Like 1
  8. “Democrats did an incomplete job” is nicer than what I have to say about their weak and pitiful impeachment execution.

    This is not politics, a bitter partisan feud or even a street fight.  This is the bell-tower knife fight at the end of Saving Private Ryan.

    There are no rules.  There is only murder and survival or your own death.  That is the position the GOP is fighting from.  The democrats?  They are fretting over the lack of decorum!

    Impeachment never had a chance of resulting in a removal and the opportunity to use it to expose the President’s malfeasance to an apathetic public weary of partisan conflict has been squandered away.  The 60% of America that doesn’t have a Cheeto mustache has to turn out at 66% or greater to have a chance to send Trump packing.  They won’t.

    Get ready for Trump 2 Aryan Boogaloo!  Yahoo!

    • Like 2
  9. I read a book about the Stuxnet virus that discussed how easy it is to hack command and control software and that we’ve run infrastructure tests that specifically demonstrated Hoover damn could be made to fail by taking over the software managing it.  The only saving grace being that the software is not connected to the internet.  You would need someone to infiltrate the dam to gain physical access to the computers to plant a virus via a USB stick or somesuch.

    Anyway, it’s probably nothing.  Sleep well, folks!

    • Like 1
  10. Just now, Deej said:

    Guy I work with wants to sell his barely played Gibson 335 to finance an acoustic. Told me he doesn't have time to find a buyer and is bringing it to me to sell it for him and will give me a cut.

    Cue to six months later: "Man, I'm still looking. Doesn't seem to be much of a market out there."

    Pics?

  11. On 1/12/2020 at 7:22 AM, Nope said:

     

    This needs more attention.  I'm reminded of a passage from "A Sand County Almanac" by Aldo Leopold:
     

    "Fragrant little chips of history spewed from the saw cut, and accumulated on the snow before each kneeling sawyer. We sensed that these two piles of sawdust were something more than wood: that they were the integrated transect of a century; that our saw was biting its way, stroke by stroke, decade by decade, into the chronology of a lifetime, written in concentric annual rings of good oak...

    It took only a dozen pulls of the saw to transect the few years of our ownership."

    • Like 2
  12. 1 hour ago, Bevo VIII said:

    Thinking about this last night with the calls and how the ejection can drastically change a game if the player is significant I came up with the following.

    Treat targeting rules similar to yellow cards in soccer. Say if a player gets called for targeting in a game the 15 yard penalty is enforced but the player isn’t ejected.

    However the player carries the “yellow card” into the next half or the first half of the following game depending on when the penalty occurs.

    If said player gets another targeting during the time he is under “yellow card” probation period he then is ejected for the remainder of that game or the first half of the next game.

    I think this makes more sense, but CTE is an existential threat to the game of football.  Aaron Hernandez, Junuior Seau, Dave Duerson, Jovan Belcher, Andre Waters, Shane Dronett, and many more.  All tragedies with headlines including the words "Football", "CTE", "Suicide" and/or "Murder".  Both the NFL and College Football are golden gooses.  Those that are its benefactors aren't fucking around with a threat that could kill them.

    We're still in a transitional period where players have learned football as a collision sport where the knockout hit was encouraged and celebrated.  In another 5-7 years, there will be no players in college football that came up in that context.  I think it will be a non-issue once we get to that point.

    EDIT:  Which isn't to say I don't miss the days of someone like Ronnie Lott enforcing a no fly zone downfield, but I can't really argue players should be sacrificing their brains and health past the age of 35 for my entertainment.

  13. 6 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

    Its the single biggest reason that the ledge seems like the right call.  Not that a guy like Trump exists, but that we decided to make him the most powerful person on earth.  It is hard even still today to wrap my head around it.

    Well, he did lose the popular vote, and there was election meddling by Russia that had some unknowable effect, so I'm not sure Trump being elected is a complete condemnation of the general public.

    But if the general public is going to accept the 2016 election model as their democracy, then that very much is.

  14. 17 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

    That interview wasn't perfect, that is for sure. The declaration of how much Saudi Arabia et al are paying for US soldiers is stark.

     

    Hail to the sociopath-in-chief running our government like a business.    A war under Trump would be interesting:

     “They kept draping flags over these coffins and would give them to the wife, mother.  Perfectly good, beautiful flags...

    Why?  What do they need a flag for?  It was costing taxpayers millions, so I got rid of it.  Gone.  No other President would do that...

    Why?  Maybe they were crooks, got kickbacks.  I don’t know..  Bush, Clinton, Obama.  All of them.  They just let it happen.  Never questioned it.

    Why?  They didn’t have what it takes.  They didn’t have what I have.  The BALLS and the BRAINS to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!”

    TrumpCrowd.jpg.cf.jpg

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
  15. 56 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Trump has little self-confidence.   He is constantly looking for positive feedback and positive reinforcement from Twitter, Fox News, Republicans in Congress, his cabinet.    He is drawn to men who act more powerful than him.  In theory, he should be the most powerful man in the world, but he acts subservient to people like Putin, Lil Kim, the Saudis   

    Rarely does a day go by where he doesn’t display his utter lack of self-confidence on twitter for all the world to see.  

    Yeah, that one is complicated.  I do think he honestly believes he’s a genius, called upon by a higher power and the best President that ever graced America with his leadership.  I think the root of his incessant lying is because his self-image is so diametrically opposed to reality.  He has to manufacture a reality that supports his view of himself and feels extremely uncomfortable when anything threatens it.  It’s why he has to go to LSU v Bama after the World Series, kill an Iranian general before impeachment can be ramped back up, tell everyone his inauguration was the biggest, etc...

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