Jump to content

Goredho

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    8474
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    1

Posts posted by Goredho

  1. 34 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Some thoughts shared with me by a family member who worked with the Senate Foreign Relations committee for a long time (the thoughts are not his - rather, they come from a colleague who once had a higher security clearance than his).  They're long, I'll put them in a spoiler.  But some of the conclusions:

    And the full text:

      Hide contents

    In any case, the assassination of General Soleimani has prompted me, like so many of you, to begin thinking through the consequences this act will have on U.S. national security interests. I certainly won’t shed a tear that he is no longer with us. He was a bad guy. My worry is what happens next; not just today or Monday after the Iranians have honored their hero’s passing. It is the costs over the next decade and beyond that certainly have my full attention; especially because the President’s actions have all the signs of a quick fix -- a shortcut for what clearly are longstanding and hugely complex problems. Sliding into a war with Iran will only make a bad situation worse. We should know better.

    Our leaders, especially those from WWII onward had a vision for America -- to seek, together with likeminded nations, a more stable, prosperous, and peaceful world. Each successive President, to a greater or lesser extent, has moved us closer to that lofty goal.

    • Those in the fifties found themselves in a Cold War with the Soviet Union, a former ally, and took on the burden of rebuilding Europe and Asia even if it meant our actions created stiffer political and economic competitors for us in the future. They had a vision.

    • So, too did President Kennedy. His determination to put an American on the moon -- an effort accomplished after his death – made us the world’s leader in military and civilian high technology, an advantage seemingly slipping away in the 21st century because Republicans and Democrats alike won’t stop fighting each other long enough to look for solutions.

    • President Johnson’s ill-advised and disastrous intervention in Vietnam came at an enormous cost and put the vision thing on hold for a decade. The Great Society – although even today still more hope than reality -- makes up in my mind a bit for the huge mistakes he made in Southeast Asia.

    • Nixon for all his faults envisioned an opening to China and made arms control agreements with the Soviet Union that many feared and fought against. His successors, however, haven’t fully realized the promise of what he and Kissinger put in motion.

    • President Carter rekindled the dream by recognizing China, but then badly mishandled its implementation, particularly his complete disregard for the safety and continued prosperity of the people on Taiwan – something that he grudgingly left up to the Congress. He gets an A for effort with his “Camp David” initiative, although me thinks that much of the credit belongs to Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat.

    • Yet more recently who can forget President Reagan’s “tear down this wall” speech. Now that’s vision. He didn’t complete this lofty goal during his time in office of course, but he avoided a nuclear holocaust, and his successor ably finished what he had started peacefully.

    • President Bush the elder did his part too. Most notably, he told Saddam Husain that his invasion of Kuwait “would not stand.” A line in the sand had been drawn, but he knew he could not and should not seek to solve the problem singlehandedly. Instead, he brought together U.S. allies from around the world, then unleashed the assembled military might on Saddam sending the resounding message that the free world would not tolerate him invading another country. Not to do so would have been pre-WWII thinking, that in his mind hadn’t worked, something he learned from first-hand experiences.

    • I will let others discuss the pros and cons of President Clinton’s national security vision for America. I still can’t forgive my Ramble Elementary school classmate for his unwillingness to keep his zipper up during his term in office, which in the grand scheme of things doesn’t seem to me all that much to ask. Enough said.

    • Where I think we took another wrong turn from the WWII generations grand vision was Bush II’s decision to go to war with Iraq -- the first preventive war in American history. Although I believe the President’s intentions heartfelt, especially in the aftermath and chaos of 9/11. Yet his rush to judgment was an error. It didn’t help that the Intelligence Community let him down. He only became aware of its poor performance when he received the judgement of the Iraq Commission on WMD that reported:

    "We conclude that the Intelligence Community was dead wrong in almost all of its pre-war judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. This was a major intelligence failure. Its principal causes were the Intelligence Community’s inability to collect good information about Iraq's WMD programs, serious errors in analyzing what information it could gather, and a failure to make clear just how much of its analysis was based on assumptions, rather than good evidence. On matters of this importance, we simply cannot afford failures of this magnitude."

    • President Obama, love or hate him, took an important first step in easing Iran’s threat to stability in the Middle East, by putting a cap on its nuclear program, including the most strict and comprehensive verification regime put in place to date anywhere. He hoped he and his successors could find other opportunities for dealing with Iran’s missile program and its proxy forces later. On other security problems his vision was a bit blurry and for the most part accomplished little.

    • Yet so far, President Trump’s effort at dealing with the challenges of international diplomacy make President Obama look like the statesman of the century. In just three years he has begun unravelling the international structure it took the U.S. and its allies 75 years to build. If you consider his start on the world stage as visionary, count me out.

    • We only need to look at his current grand adventure to see how far off course he has taken us. At first blush, I can see ahead only more, not less, chaos. Should he continue on this path the changes for us could be dramatic, possibly even losing our position as the world’s greatest power. If such should occur, my bet would be on China.

    Call me crazy but convincing me that one man’s death makes America in any sense greater or that it will bring peace to the Middle East isn’t going to be easy. Indeed, the jobs of our diplomats, soldiers, sailors, and members of the air force will certainly become more difficult and complicated than those the WWII generation handed me. I’m confident they are personally up to the task and will give their all. I am less certain of their leaders’ wisdom, whether they be Republicans or Democrats, to create a strategy that will make America and the world safer and more prosperous than we all were yesterday. They hardly talk to each other let alone work together to develop a workable vision for the future.

    I don’t have a security clearance or inside knowledge of what provoked the President to make such a drastic departure from the presidential guidance presidents from Truman to the present concluded was best for protecting U.S. interests abroad --assassinating world leaders under their watch was a no-no. I’m sure many may have thought about it, and in the early days of the Cold War some even okayed attempting silly things like slipping Fidel a shot of shellfish toxin. But, at least in the old days we considered such things as covert actions, ones that the President could credibly deny we were not the culprit. Today we are openly celebrating a great victory over terrorism. Some dismissing out of hand the concerns of others that it was an act of war committed without Congressional approval or even a heads up to the Gang of Eight. No wonder you hardly hear anyone even mention that in the eyes of most of the world what we have done is against international law. I frankly don’t have a clue what to expect next.

    I do know that much of the talk justifying the President’s decision is nonsense:

    • Let’s start with the important lesson I thought we had all learned by experience since 9/11. Killing the leader of a terrorist organization isn’t a giant step toward ending the threat of terrorism worldwide. Full stop. Some, while acknowledging that drone attacks have killed a number of important terrorists leaders, point to the serious collateral damage on civilians that follows in their wake. Plus, critics’ research suggests that such strikes have been especially helpful in terrorist recruitment efforts. True or not, my yardstick in such matters has always been that if the target isn’t important enough for us to put boots on the ground, risking American lives in the process, maybe we should think twice, even a third time before we pull the trigger.

    • Then there is the charge that Soleimani is just a “terrorist.” What is all the fuss? True he killed many Americans and even a greater number of others living nearby and the far beyond. And yes, over the last two decades he has been planning, orchestrating, and may have on occasion participated in terrorists attacks. But he has always been more than just a mere terrorist. He also held a powerful military position in the nation state of Iran. That alone makes this event far different and extraordinary than just another drone attack. No! This is a watershed moment. We have taken a first of its kind leap into the future – world leaders are now fair game. Hunting season is open. I fear the world will never again look at the U.S. as we see ourselves – a role model for others to emulate; a nation that sets high standards and strives for even higher values. A nation, democratic and free, willing to strive for a more peaceful world not just for ourselves but for others as well. Sad to say, I think this one action has turned our white hat for many at least a shade of grey and given our adversaries the opportunity to spread the lie that it has not only turned grey, but coal black.

    • I am also struggling with the notion that this instance of Americans being in imminent danger somehow justifies the use of assassination as our go to tool for solving a national security challenge. Our forces and diplomats have been in imminent danger every day since 9/11. Why don’t we just admit we had a shot at him. Planned and prepared the attack to take him out, and boom. He was gone, the Constitution and the Congress be damned. What’s the big deal administration supporters (or should I say enablers) ask? To my mind, in the end it is simply a clumsy excuse to justify their keeping others with a need to know out of the loop. Don’t be fooled. There was time to let the Gang of Eight know the President’s decision even if it was only moments after Soleimani stepped off the plane in Baghdad. In my experience planning and preparing for such a strike takes a lot more time than even most civilian government officials realize, let alone the American people. No, it was nothing less than a conscience decision to keep others in the dark about their intention to change a decades old policy. For the new gang in town, torture set too low a bar and expanding drone strikes was something even Obama had done. They were bound and determined to show that military power almost singlehandedly was the answer to the world’s problems even if it meant going to war with Iran. The new sheriff in town had assassination in his holster now and was not afraid to use it.

    • Finally, what is the plan? Where do we go from here? Are we really prepared for a full-scale war with Iran? Again, call me crazy, but if there are people around who believe that this is a good idea, please check their rationale and costs estimates carefully. I can’t help but believe folks coming to such conclusions must be smoking a new kind of weed or something. It doesn’t matter what your political views war with Iran, it doesn’t add up. Once started the road to war starts to-pick up speed it becomes difficult to stop.

    No ifs, ands, or buts, the President’s actions thus far are a big deal. He needs, no is required, to layout for the Congress and the American people what he is he getting us into sooner rather than later. If he is being advised that this is the way to win the war on terrorism, God help us. Win? I find it wacky even talking about it in the case of terrorism. Remember, it was the conventional forces, you know the ones we turned our back on recently in Syria, that destroyed the Caliphate. Taking on Iran is a whole different matter. Think about what blood and treasure we expended fighting a war in Iraq and multiple your answer at least by three.

    I whole heartedly agree that Special Ops have worked miracles over the last decade. I am in awe of their bravery and accomplishments, but I doubt those who risked their life for you and me all these years think that just their operations alone, no matter how successful, are the answer to finally ending the war on terror or certainly fighting a war with Iran. Most everybody, except the guy who holds our future in his hands, gets it. War is not something you decide on gut feeling. The time has come, as we say in Arkansas, to shit or get off the pot. I’m hoping his supporters will put their big boy pants on soon before he does even more damage.

    For the rest us, let’s get busy making America proud again.

    Just saying.

    Sigh.  When I was younger, I thought that "trickle down" economics made sense, as a hypothesis.  But I've seen it in action....and the results speak for themselves.  When I was younger, I was pretty hawkish.  But I've seen what over-reliance on force as a tool does -- or more aptly, doesn't do.  I've learned.  I've changed my views.  Why in the hell can't our leadership (setting Trump aside -- the man doesn't even read, much less learn)?

    Because the party controlling the levers of power right now:

    1. Has a constituency that is largely made up of the marginally intelligent, willfully ignorant and uninformed

    2. Has a goal other than peace and prosperity for all

  2. 47 minutes ago, hullabelew said:

    How do you like that beatbuddy pedal?  I put some money on that kickstarter but backed out of actually buying the pedal.    I picked up an Alesis drum machine in the meantime but still thinking about that pedal or the DigiTech SDrum.

    Don't own one yet, its just an option I'm considering.

  3. 7 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

    And I'm pretty sure that, watching Trump, Dick Cheney curses the day he sold off his Haliburton stock before becoming VP in order to avoid a conflict of interest. Although I'd bet that, if we examined his finances since 2009 closely, we'd find that he was amply rewarded for his service to his former company. 

    Yeah, one thing I do try to keep in mind about Trump’s grift is that everyone who has been in an administration has profiteered.  Most are able to wait to capitalize or otherwise maintain some semblance of superficial propriety but Trump is either too unrefined to pull that off or just doesn’t give a shit.

    It’s everything else that is Trump — the would-be despot, the Richard Spencer domestic policy, the normalization of hatred, the assault on American democracy, the alienation of western allies and alignment with totalitarians — that  makes me want him to Mr Creosote himself at one of these Wendy’s catered White House luncheons.

    Now back to your regularly scheduled even bigger than the crusades BEST war...

    • Like 1
  4. 20 hours ago, 6th Street said:

    "Questions, the obvious ones like: Is Iran really the greatest threat we face? And who's actually benefiting from this? And why are we continuing to ignore the decline of our own country in favor of jumping into another quagmire from which there is no obvious exit?

    'By the way, if we're still in Afghanistan 19 years, sad years later, what makes us think there's a quick way out of Iran ... ?"

    - Tucker Carlson lol

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7851279/Tucker-Carlson-asks-Iran-really-greatest-threat-face-Trumps-drone-strike.html

    20a9z5.jpg

  5. Is this really a concern?  I mean, borderlandbeat was posting pics of bodies hanging from bridges and heads littering the NL town square like a decade ago, and I'm not aware of there having been a spike in spillover violence here in the US.  I can see this being concerning if you have relatives in Mexico or have to travel there for business, but for the rest of us who can keep visits to Mexico constrained to meals at Enchiladas Y Mas?  It seems like we have much more proximal concerns worthy of our anxiety.

  6. Thought #1:  While I am horrified that Trump is in charge while this is playing out, Iraq/Iran/the ME is a problem he inherited.  The only right decision was never to invade Iraq in the first place.

    Thought #2:  Given the number of decisions of similar scale that Trump makes flippantly on a regular basis, I wonder what problems of his origin that we'll be dealing with 2 decades from now?

    • Like 1
  7. 42 minutes ago, noharleyyet said:

    Gonna need some promo loops....and good for you.

    Thanks for the encouragement and holding me accountable :P . This is as good as I can do at the moment.  Its the second original songlette I've recorded since getting back on the guitar, after maybe 8-9 months back playing regularly.  Its also kind of my first foray into digital and modeling, going straight to macbook and using a Bias FX plugin within garageband for signal processing.  I don't know wtf I am doing as far as mixing and eq, so while I like the song and am reasonably happy with my playing at this point, I'm not at all happy with the tone, mix and mastering.  I don't really have a desire to build up audio-engineering skills, so not sure that will improve.  Definitely not in 2020.
     

    For these live gigs, I'm probably going to do a mix of 2/3rds covers and 1/3rd originals.  At least start with that ratio and see what the reaction is.  The covers will be primarily 60's/70's songs that everyone will recognize, things like "Oye Como Va", "Hotel California" and "Comfortably Numb".  I'm toying with the idea of shortening the songs and making them fully instrumental.  I'm much less confident singing than I am playing guitar.

    • Like 6
  8. On 12/31/2019 at 11:23 PM, Celery Man said:

    Happy new years fuckers.  My resolution is to pick out a tune every week.

     

    Mine is to start playing live again regularly (last time was 20 years ago), and I have a twice a month contract with my wife to allow it (pics on xtube).  I've been talking to a local pub owner I know and I got the go ahead to play there on Thursday nights whenever I want as soon as I put together a set list.  It will be me with a guitar, microphone and either backing tracks or a looper + bass9 & beatbuddy pedal.  Slightly terrifying, so considering going full buckethead to hide from the audience.  Wish me luck.

    Other goal (not really a resolution) for 2020 is to decide if I want to stick with pedals and valve amps or go full digital skynet.  I have a Line6 Helix LT being delivered today that I will (hopefully) use to replace most of my pedals into the Vox AC30 for live and direct to macbook for recording.  I am intrigued about the state of amp modeling w/FRFR speakers, so I want to experiment some and see if I want to go that route.  For the live scenario I described where I will need to reproduce a range of instruments for an audience, just having the helix, full-range powered speakers and a looper or iphone w/backing tracks has a strong minimalists appeal to me.

    • Like 2
  9. 2 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

    Let's not minimize Clinton's misdeeds.  My view is that his conduct, both with regard to the sexual harassment (as a subordinate Lewinski's "consent" was tainted) and the perjury to the grand jury rendered him unfit to remain in office.

    One need not defend Clinton to justify the actions against Trump.

    I’m not trying to defend Clinton, simply to point out the paradox between the special investigator’s and opposition party’s approach to ensuring a proper investigation in his case vs Trump’s.

×
×
  • Create New...