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KYHorn

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by KYHorn

  1. Also doesn't count emigration
  2. Really a smartly tailored proposal. I could see it appealing to Trump Ukraine ready to share resources & replace some US troops in Europe post-war — part of a strategy to gain Trump's support, per FT. During a meeting with Zelensky in September, two special proposals were presented to President-elect Trump. One plan involves deploying Ukrainian troops in Europe after the war, easing the US military presence, and sharing resources with Western allies.
  3. Definitely. I almost added that this is like shadow mobilization
  4. The Russians have blown up yet another dam, one that was crucial for cooling the Kurakhove TPP. History is repeating itself because Russia has faced no consequences. In fact, it was emboldened by a person who recently received power. This act of ecocide is intended to make conditions unlivable. Villages are flooding. The river lies between the Donetsk and Dnipro regions.
  5. The Russian government plans to lay off at least 400,000. Moscow, Russia — The Russian government is preparing for one of the most significant reductions in its civil service workforce to date. By July 1, 2025, the government will see a 10% decrease in staff, according to information obtained by Kommersant. While the 10% figure is cited as a target, the actual cuts could be even larger. In total, more than 400,000 jobs are expected to be affected, amounting to over 0.5% of the nation's workforce. The bottom line: the money has run out.
  6. And Trump campaign declined to comment... So true?
  7. Not sure what to make of the Washington Post report on Trump already talking to Putin and telling him not to escalate. Contradicts her reporting here.
  8. Rubio for Secretary of State. At least some hope there as it relates to Ukraine. It was looking real grim the last few days. If you recall, he was the senator on from the Intel committee who was publicly calling Putin's moves before he made them. Better than Ric Grenell, who supported the autonomous zone idea.
  9. Probably a major contributor to the persistently high rates that's often not discussed: as part of its quantitative tightening, the Fed has been dumping mortgage backed securities.
  10. Supposedly being traced to Russia so they're surely concentrated in Dem locations
  11. "Aid to Ukraine" is really an investment in American manufacturing. $51.2 billion has gone into the US defense industrial base to date. Once all funds are obligated, it will be over $60 billion. Top recipient states: 1. Arkansas - $4.25 billion 2. Alabama - $3.31 billion 3. Pennsylvania - $2.83 billion 4. Arizona - $2.72 billion 5. Texas - $2.04 billion 6. West Virginia - $1.98 billion 7. California - $1.96 billion 8. Florida - $1.59 billion 9. Missouri - $968 million 10. New York - $943 million Note that not all contracts and investments are reflected on the map, so it won't match the total obligations. Only prime contractors and select key subcontractors are mapped. The defense industrial supply chain stretches into all 50 states, and many states are underrepresented due to the nature of the weapon systems provided to Ukraine (e.g. no aircraft =very little for South Carolina & Washington). If your state isn't highlighted that doesn't mean that there are no funds from the Ukraine Supplementals flowing into your state.
  12. No response? WSJ: Russia Suspected of Plotting to Send Incendiary Devices on U.S.-Bound Planes "Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada. The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England."
  13. I mean that'd be nice but he doesn't even mention a source. Is there an actual report about this? Throughout the 2.5 years I don't recall much being said about her stance.
  14. US-made jam-resistant drones helped Ukrainians cut through Russia EW - Defense One The company's V-BAT drones "were launched 40 km from the front line, they flew 100 km, detected 11 Buk anti-aircraft missile systems, aimed at them and triggered HIMARS missile strikes," - Brandon Tseng, who founded Shield AI Ukraine ordered more than 200 vehicles from Shield AI after it demonstrated its capabilities in combat conditions in August according to another article in WSJ.
  15. Fair point. I'm tired of the restrained path we've laid out for Ukraine and have become despondent enough about it that alternative paths (however unlikely they may be to result in something positive) start to become more appealing.
  16. I wasn't aware of this. With the modern tools available and often used for these very purposes, surely they can use that DNA to find a match.
  17. Talk me out of this because it has been creeping into my head for the past couple of months. Setting aside all other CR considerations: An election that results in more of the same policies is more likely to mean Ukraine continues to lose slowly while Russia's economy and military continue to be substantially depleted. Put another way, will a Harris admin approach this differently and with much greater resolve and courage than the current admin? I haven't seen much to suggest otherwise. This increases the likelihood of a meaningful Russian breakthrough at some point, but even without that, Russia is able to take more territory and Ukraine loses more bargaining power than it already has for when the time comes to settle this. An election that results in a new admin where they are determined to end it now could result in significant and terrible concessions for Ukraine, but given the person in charge is unpredictable and highly sensitive to how he is perceived, the risk that it is seen as a "weak deal" would be an effective deterrent to giving up much to Russia and could actually end up strengthening the USA's resolve vis-à-vis the president and, therefore, Ukraine's bargaining power. Again, this is highly dependent on capriciousness, so it's more likely to result in extremes. But, if it is appearing increasingly likely that the alternative admin would continue down the path of slow decline, then the chance of the more favorable result for Ukraine might actually lie with the counter-intuitive admin.
  18. A brief, sober look at the current status of the war https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/29/ukraine-is-now-struggling-to-survive-not-to-win https://archive.is/kU0HV#selection-1093.465-1093.578
  19. "Chervona Kalyna" brigade of Ukraine’s NG repelled a Russian meat assault in the Pokrovsk area. Ukrainian defenders countered effectively, using coordinated firepower from artillery, drones, and firearms despite thorough preparations by the Russian forces, including a rapid approach and heavy grenade attacks. The brigade successfully held the position, repelling the terrorist assault.
  20. Update around Kurakhivka-Kurakhove. Russian troops have taken Hyrnik -after earlier premature information- and are now geolocated in the industrial area west of Kurakhivka. It is highly unlikely that Ukrainian troops are still in Kurakhivka, Zoryane and the area east of Zoryane. They have probably retreated to the west to take up new defensive positions there.
  21. No, he never actually left Austin, so the only monuments he visited were these.
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