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KYHorn
Certifiably Surly-
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Everything posted by KYHorn
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Crossover strikes! Syria TV: Israel bombed Russia's Hmeimim airbase an hour after the arrival of an Iranian plane belonging to "Qeshm" Airlines. The Israeli strike did not target the runways or towers at Hmeimim Airbase and Latakia's civilian airport. The bombing targeted other military sites in Latakia province simultaneously with hitting the warehouse inside Hmeimim Airbase. The Israeli bombardment began at 3:55 AM and ended at 4:41 AM, involving thirty missiles launched from naval ships. A Russian air patrol hovered over Latakia after the Israeli strike ended.
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I think we have some idea of its success
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Detailed analysis of how it occurred. It's also worth mentioning the extreme losses Russia has suffered over the last year in trying to capture Vuhledar Russia has attacked Vuhledar several times over the past two years, but this current attack began on September 25th, 2023, when Russia launched its full-scale attack on Novomykhailivka. Ukraine fended off the attack for nearly 7 months but ultimately lost the town on April 21st, almost entirely due to airstrikes that annihilated it. During the assault on Novomykhailivka, which Russia saw as one of its primary objectives last winter, Ukraine destroyed well over 300 Russian vehicles during the primary assault and probably another 300 during secondary and tertiary assaults. Next came the battle for Kostyantynivka, which lasted several more months before Russia managed to break into the middle of the village. Ukraine ultimately decided to withdraw from its defense of the western part of the town on August 27th, and this withdrawal, I believe, was the beginning of the end for Vuhledar. It started a chain reaction. During the battle for Kostyantynivka, Russia began to push toward Vodiane. They made it near the highway by the time Ukraine retreated from Kostyantynivka, but almost a week before Ukraine left Kostyantynivka, Russia managed to capture the trench line defending the highway. These events were so close in time that they were not a coincidence. I think either Ukraine decided to withdraw from the highway because of Kostyantynivka or they decided to withdraw from Kostyantynivka because of the highway. I don't know which. Regardless, also running concurrently with the primary assaults on Kostyantynivka, Russia began a massive air campaign on Prechystivka. I tried to raise alarm bells on this several times; it was highly concerning and reminded me of their behavior in Novomykhailivka. After many months of near-continuous airstrikes, Russia launched a large and pretty sudden assault on the town beginning on August 26th, capturing it on September 3rd, ultimately collapsing the western flank of Vuhledar and pushing across the Kashlahach River in multiple places with large numbers of troops in each instance. Losing Kostyantynivka and the highway near Vodiane made defending Vuhledar extremely questionable; losing these river crossings made it practically impossible. The fact that all three occurred within 17 days, after many months of preparation and planning, shows how coordinated the attack on Vuhledar was. Then came the capture of Vodiane itself (around September 8th,9th,10th) and, quickly after that, the capture or partial capture of both mines (September 9th and 15th) near Vuhledar, thus completing a near encirclement that ended any prospect for the defense of the city. And, of course, Russia captured Vuhledar on October 1st. This well-planned, multiphase attack on Vuhledar lasted roughly 1 year + 1 week. During this time, Russia implemented new (for them) ideas for breaking through Ukrainian defenses, iterated on those ideas, and learned from its mistakes. I expect them to follow this same basic format going forward, with further iterations designed to reduce their casualties and losses. Russia cannot survive more Novomykhailivkas, but they can do Prechystivkas forever. And that is a real problem. Lessons for Ukraine: ATGMs are extremely vital for defense. You need ATGMs and positions to fire them from. In order to fire, you need to be above the ground, you often see them inside houses, on roofs, etc. But these positions are easy targets for guided missiles and guided bombs. Maybe Ukraine should be building more defensive structures like the anthill: large earth structures. You saw similar defensive positions north of Novomykhailivka, and those positions, even with air support, could not be captured by Russia. Russia had to outflank them and force Ukraine to abandon them. Constructing large earth structures, lined with concrete, could resist Russian airpower, enable you to take advantage of ATGMs, and offer strong points capable of withstanding determined Russian assaults. Road construction is vital. You need to get supplies to the front, especially to well defended areas that are under attack. The anthill, for example, was not lost due to its destruction or being overwhelming with Russian power. It was lost because the road supplying it was destroyed, and the casualties from resupply and troop rotation became so high people refused to do it anymore. I believe Ukraine has the knowledge and resources to build defenses that are capable of standing up to Russian airpower, and they have done so in the past. But they need to begin doing it again. The defensive line that was build in 2014, 2015, 2016 is gone. They have to make a new one, of similar or greater quality. Learning from the mistakes made with the first, and iterating on the successes. Also, all of Ukraine's most successful defensive positions were not along tree lines. They were in the middle of a field, using manmade positions in the middle, not natural defensive barriers. You need bunkers that are deep enough to survive airstrikes, strong enough to resist collapse, and large enough to safely keep enough men to defend the position. You need to build up off the ground, not merely dig trenches, but to get up so you can see the enemy approaching. And then, in that higher position, dig trenches and bunkers. On anthill, for example, they first dug down to build a bunker, they piled earth above the bunker to be meters tall, and then dug trenches into that earth. So you had trenches several meters above ground on top of a bunker. This sort of earthen defensive structure, lined with concrete, has proven to be very effective. Much more effective than simple trench systems.
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A video has been posted online that allegedly shows the explosion of a powerful bomb in Vovchansk, Kharkiv region. Some Russian military experts write that this is the first use of the ODAB-9000 vacuum bomb, which is called the “Kuzkin's father” and “father of all bombs” and is considered the most powerful non-nuclear munition in the world - the equivalent of 44,000 kg of TNT. However, others claim that it is a thermobaric bomb, ODAB-1500, which was dropped after a failed “meat assault” by the Russians.
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I found this to be helpful
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Speaking of war crimes The Russian military executed 16 (!!!) surrendered Ukrainian soldiers at sight. This is the worst incident of POW execution known so far in this war. It happened near Pokrovsk. Look at what the Russians did - they lined the surrendered Ukrainians up, shot them all down, and then finished off those dying on the ground. When some sneaky character says 'Ukrainians just need to surrender," -- this is the answer regarding what will happen if Ukraine "just surrenders" to Russia, which is absolutely out of its damn mind and sick with absolute sadism.
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Yeah, it'sreal.
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Homeless? Live in Asheville?
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Today Russian forces launched a major attack on the Kharkiv front, in the town of Vovchansk: From the Russian side 17 MT-LB, 3 tanks and more than 100 infantry were involved in the assault operations in the Vovchan direction. 16 MT-LBs were destroyed, 1 tank was knocked out, which was able to retreat together with survivors. As said by Ukrainian soldier: “The boys confidently met Russian armor in the Vovchansk front, as I said, the units were ready for this, so they worked confidently. In addition to the destroyed iron, there are a lot of corpses lying around them, since almost all the boxes were with infantry.” After the Russian missile attack on the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv, one of the Russian pilots of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division contacted the DIU chatbot, - The Telegraph The pilot was shocked by another attack on civilians, so he handed over documents from the personal files of senior officers of the division and valuable sealed materials to the Ukrainian side.
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Lives in NM now
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And another one There are unconfirmed reports that Maher al-Assad, the younger brother of Bashar al-Assad, may have been killed in an Israeli airstrike. If true, it would mean one of the worst psychopaths in the region is dead. Maher is responsible for commanding the Syrian Army’s 4th Division, which is charged with protecting the Syrian government/presidency from external and internal threats. He is responsible for the massacre of civilians, individual extrajudicial killings, the gassing of Syrians, money laundering, mass displacement, torture and abuse in detention centers, and the ruinous Captagon trade in Syria and the region, which has not only led to deaths but also helps fund the Assad regime. Even President Erdogan, who called Maher a psychopath, will celebrate this news if true. If true, it will also send a huge message to Bashar al-Assad, who has already been barely vocal about the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, to mind his own business.
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Russian diplomacy doing work
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Strong nihilist pedigree.
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"The United States plans to announce more than $8 billion worth of military assistance for Ukraine on Thursday during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's visit to Washington, two U.S. officials said on Wednesday... A second announcement slated for Thursday will be for $2.4 billion worth of aid under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative program, which allows the administration to buy weapons for Ukraine from companies rather than pull them from U.S. weapons stocks."
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"Your invasion of Ukraine was carried out in your own interests. Only yours. To expand your mafia state into a mafia empire. An empire built on corruption... Imperialism: I recognize it when I see it. And I will call it what it is." - UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy at the UN General Assembly.
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NBC Exclusive: The Pentagon has recommended giving white phosphorus shells to Ukraine, but White House keeps saying no This comes as an unbelievable surprise, but evidently the US has not provided Ukraine with WP smoke or illumination shells. Just another asinine decision, unsupported by any military logic. Russia has installed Starlink on Shahed-136 drones: it gives unlimited communication range for drones flying at 2,000 km - Defense Express The drone was shot down by Ukraine's Armed Forces during last night's attack. With the help of Starlink, Russia can use Shahed drones as an extremely long-range loitering munition with the ability to conduct reconnaissance checks, thanks to an additional camera, and hit even moving targets.
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Bad news has been circulating for a few days: According to the Washington Post, the United States believes that Ukraine has not made a “compelling case” for permission to strike deep into Russia with American weapons. “Ukraine is better off focusing on destroying targets in Crimea. Strikes on Russia are not worth the risk of escalation.” - American officials.
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Russians
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The blue-collar workers at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania, USA, receive a humble word of gratitude from Ukraine‘s President Zelenskyy. They and their families are part of a struggle which is happening on a global scale. God bless them all! God bless America!
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