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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. Hahaha yeah one game. Tell me you don't know oSu football without telling me. But yeah, that was likely as close as we'll ever get. Texas has had and will have many more. Texas may have been 2 plays from winning 3 titles in a 5-year span (Gideon dropped INT and Colt injury). You’d have a hard time convincing me that Texas wasn’t the country’s best team in ‘08 and that the ‘09 team wouldn’t have beaten Bama with Colt (obviously we’ll never know). Testament to the role that luck and randomness often play in deciding these things.
  2. Disagree on Jake. He’s a good 4th OF.
  3. Here’s the thing, the pitchers like throwing to him! Intangibles!
  4. The write ups are updated with input about 2023 performance. Their updated list still has Lee as a 50 FV, so he wouldn’t have dropped. It’s one list, not saying it’s infallible, but he hasn’t dropped at all, at least to them.
  5. Someone asked if he was top 5. Someone else said he wasn’t. I added to the conversation. Stop being dramatic.
  6. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/houston-astros-top-38-prospects-2023/
  7. That would be smart on their end. They’re in a position to pay for better prospects. If that’s the case, it’ll be interesting to see what teams are willing to give and exactly how much the Mets would pay.
  8. Because the Mets want out of his contract and would be willing to take less in prospect capital if they can foist it on someone else? They may be able to get a better deal from the Dodgers, but the Astros could pull it off if they want JV badly enough.
  9. This is a ridiculous exaggeration; in both instances, I was reasonably happy the next day too.
  10. You’re being intentionally obtuse. You know that’s not what people are saying. Get fair value.
  11. Yes, exactly. Both. It can be done. That’s the whole point.
  12. People who assess prospects for a living disagree that he’s unlikely to be good. They are sometimes wrong, of course.
  13. Generally, ones that bring back *likely* value commensurate with what you trade. (The exception would be something like the Randy Johnson trade. That was very likely going to be a big imbalance of future value at the time is was made. It was still a good move because it brought back a guy that could have been the most important piece of a WS title. It didn’t work out, therm’s the breaks.) With Ohtani off the market, there isn’t anyone like that. So I’d be fine with them standing pat and not chasing spare parts. Graveman is fine. I’d rather have Lee in the organization. Again, it’s not a disaster or anything, but it doesn’t seem like a particularly good move to me. I care more about keeping the club’s floor high over the long haul than I do about short-term patches. People see it differently; that’s fine.
  14. That’s true. I also don’t know if the sun is going to explode in the next 15 minutes, but I bet it doesn’t.
  15. So we should make bad trades going forward?
  16. You know this is happening, and it’s part of why this trade sucks ass.
  17. I think you just like arguing with me.
  18. …without the guys that were successful, with a first-year GM with no track record and an owner who led a string of horrific signings in the most recent offseason.
  19. Problem is, these possibilities aren’t equally likely. Right - who cares about next year?!? We got Kendall Graveman! (This is exactly how losing franchises operate.)
  20. Trading away more future value for less future value is generally bad business, right? Repeatedly doing this has obvious long-term consequences and suggests that the front office may not be particularly sharp. Since we can’t be certain of any future events happening, we rely on probabilities. Lee probably has more future value to the Astros than Graveman, probably by quite a bit. That is the issue. Maybe the club thinks less of Lee than scouts/prospect folks. I hope that’s the case, because if they don’t, then this suggests that they’ll be bad at valuing players properly.
  21. Nothing is a sure thing, of course. But Lee projects as an average big league catcher based on scouting grades, performance to date, etc. Fangraphs, whose prospect writers are generally as good as anyone’s, has him graded as a 50 future value guy, equivalent of an average MLB starter. He has a high floor because he’s good defensively at a defense-first position. He better than Maldonado right now. He isn’t exciting, but a catching combo of Diaz-Lee for the next 6 years very likely puts the Astros near the top of the league in terms of positional value. Again, it’s not about Lee per se. It’s about not properly balancing who you trade against who you receive.
  22. Graveman is a decent relief pitcher. He’s been worth about 2/3 of a win per year over the last 3 years. So, maybe he’s worth a win or so over the next 1.5 years. Lee is a good defensive catcher with 6 years of team control. If he catches 35-45 games per year as a backup to Diaz, he’s probably worth about 1 win per year even if his bat never comes around. Maybe/probably more. Look, none of this is the end of the world or anything. But trading away more future value than you get in return isn’t generally a winning formula if you’re not adding real difference makers. And guys with 4.85 FIP aren’t real difference makers; they’re just guys.
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