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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. It’s a sample size thing. You maximize your team’s odds of winning any given game by starting your best players. Over a big enough sample - like 162 games - it does matter who you play at catcher. If we flipped totals of MM and YD starts at catcher, this team probably has about 4 more wins than it currently does. Those wins are pretty important. Again, it’s what people have been screaming all season, and right now is exactly why. this team never had the luxury of fucking around with subpar lineups as frequently as it did. (And I’m not talking about the injuries - I’m talking about catcher, Chas sitting 25% of the time, the stupid batting orders, etc.)
  2. Regression in that several starters - Javier, France, Bielak - had results that were significantly better than the underlying data suggested they should be for a first couple months of the season. Regression in that Brown was a rookie who had never thrown a lot of innings and was unlikely to sustain his fast start. Regression from the bullpen compared to 2022, when almost to a man they were outstanding (bullpens are notoriously variable from year to year).
  3. That’s the whole point. They haven’t been good enough for an extended period at any point all season. It has been evident since April that we won’t even play our best players consistently and that the pitching regression was coming hard. (Though the pitching actually kept us afloat for a while and the regression didn’t really hit until the second half.)
  4. I wrote this 3 months ago and you told me I am a miserable person. Which you may not be wrong about. But still.
  5. I’d exclude Brown from this right now. I just can’t fathom a GM, whose job it is to build and maintain a roster, simply being cool with the manager playing crappy players over good players most of the time. Which makes me think that Crane has made it clear that it’s all Dusty’s call. There is speculation that this is what got Click fired in the first place. It sure looks like it’s coming from Crane, who, like I said yesterday, seems to now prioritize Dusty’s ego over winning. The problem with Crane being the crux of the issue is obvious and is the worst case scenario: the silver lining of this shitshow of a season should be that bad decisions (which lead to commensurately bad outcomes) bring consequences of necessary change. But when the owner is the one making the bad decisions…
  6. Agree, in the sense that it doesn’t make me angry anymore. But I still find it astounding that in 2023, when the information we have access to about every aspect of every player’s performance and abilities is so abundant and informative and foundational to how every single club operates, this is allowed to happen. Just fascinating.
  7. Yainer Diaz is 30% better than league average as a hitter and grades out well defensively. Martin Maldonado is 33% worse than league average as a hitter and grades out poorly defensively. We choose to start MM almost every day instead of YD. The Astros organization prioritizes Dusty Baker’s ego over winning.
  8. I think he’s got a good shot, but I’m not sure it’s probable at this point. 158 per for 6 years is one thing; doing that at ages 34-39 is another. “What he did in 2022” - sure, but 2022 was an MVP-caliber season. It may not be so easy to simply replicate that annually through his mid- to late-30s. If he stays healthy, sure, I’d expect him to get there. But that’s the problem with age - staying healthy gets tougher and tougher. His evolution as a hitter over his career is kind of fascinating; his approach now is really different than it was early in his career. His walks are up, his power is way up. It makes him a more valuable offensive player but doesn’t necessarily make him more likely to compile hits.
  9. And he was this good last year too. He’s kept this up for a season and a half now, at ages 32-33.
  10. I don’t think there is really any reason to believe he’s a worse hitter as a DH than as a catcher. But yeah, the commitment to refusing to maximize the lineup is astounding.
  11. What this presupposes is…logic and rational thought play a role in our day-to-day lineup construction…
  12. Unfortunately, as evidenced by the voluminous content in this thread, it was only a matter of time.
  13. I stopped getting worked up a while back. It isn’t remotely surprising anymore that our lineups will be silly. I’m more at the acceptance stage now - accepting that the Astros aren’t really trying to win this year. I’m not sure why they aren’t, but that’s the only logical conclusion one can reach.
  14. Catchers who hit like he does are dime a dozen.
  15. Crane deciding to side with Dusty fucking Baker over 2 Click and Brown is something. Putting his own ego over the good of the team. Cool. That’s leadership.
  16. This is a team with a manager who stubbornly refuses to maximize his team’s chances of winning. Think about that. It’s kind of the antithesis of the job, no? Dusty has probably cost the team 5 wins this year just based on his playing time allocation. That’s a guess, but don’t worry, @Wulaw Horn and I are going to do the math on it in a couple weeks and give you a more precise number. It may be more than 5. It’s almost like those 5 games matter.
  17. This has looked like a 90-ish win team all year. It still does. It’s probably closer to a 95-ish win team if the manager plays his best players. But he doesn’t, and that costs the team wins. Those wins were always likely to be the difference between winning the division and missing the playoffs entirely. And here we are. The pitching regression was always coming; water finds its level.
  18. Well we don’t play our best players, so…
  19. Texas A&M and Texas haven’t played each other in over a decade a generation. lol
  20. When we have to play in the first round or miss the playoffs entirely, remember how frequently the manager refused to play his best players.
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