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Brian Fantana

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Posts posted by Brian Fantana

  1. 1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

    No, he asked how TRUMP could convince Israel to call off the dogs.  The leader of a dominionist fundagelical death cult (sure, he doesn't actually believe any of that stuff, but needs all those believers to love him) is never, ever going to "restrain" Israel.

    Yeah I mean obviously he's never going to do it but he could, easily.

  2. 11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

    I don’t know how Trump can convince Israel to call off the dogs.

    Easily. Threaten to stop the money and weapons spigot, and fucking mean it. Israel is incapable of sustaining a campaign against anyone without our money and weapons, period.

    Why do you think they threw such a shit fit and Bibi got on the first plane to America to come scold Congress when Biden threatened to reduce military aid by an effectively marginal amount last year if Israel invaded Rafah?

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  3. 2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    "Sure, Hamas and Assad and the Iranian regime are bad, but, but-for Israeli shittiness, they wouldn't be an issue" absolves the other players.

    Actually, my position on Iran has been all along that they likely wouldn't be led a regime this shitty in the first place had we not deposed their democratically elected leadership at the behest of British oil interests. I don't think I've ever once blamed Israel for the way Iran is today. Sure, they have their own agency, they could have just sat around, allowed the Pahlavi dynasty continue to brutally oppress them in perpetuity, and not done the Iranian Revolution, but is that a fair criticism?

    I make the same argument about Mexican drug cartels. Yes, they are horrifying monsters with plenty of agency to not be the way they are, but it's unlikely they would have had the opportunity to become as powerful and ubiquitous as they are if it weren't for the insanely idiotic American War on Drugs. Similar to how it's very unlikely that the Ayatollah could have become as powerful as he did without the pressure cooker created by the monarchy that we [re]installed in their country.

    Hamas is a different animal, because at its inception it appeared to be a grassroots movement in response to the perceived corruption and growing unpopularity of the PLO, heavily (and discreetly) supported by Israel, I might add. It's patently ridiculous to blame its existence or its continued existence on Iran, as well, considering we know how it was continually propped up by Israel, and even received lots of outside support from other countries at the behest of Israel.

    The things you continually call a "but-for" are just necessary historical context.

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  4. 9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

    I think @956 Worldwide's post yesterday is right. Iran's ability to both project force and to defend itself have been seriously impacted, their proxies they thought would help have shown themselves unreliable partners, as have Russia and China. The status quo isn't the same.

    However, it seems that all we've accomplished is a small delay in their nuclear program. In exchange for that delay, we've made them much likelier to pursue a bomb ASAP, have essentially destroyed international nonproliferation, gave Russia and China some new info on the B-2's capabilities and shown them that our bunker busters may not get the job done.  Oh, and we've made it much likelier that Iran will be ruled by even more hardliners going forward.

    You can see how Israel sees all of this as a victory for them. But it's hard to see how it's a victory for us.  

    Yeah I think I agree with all of this. Another point is that I suspect we will start hearing more rumblings about discontent within the IRGC, which would indicate a coup could be coming. There's just about no chance that regime change in that form would be favorable to us, though.

  5. 4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

     

    Cool.  You've seen my posts.  You know that I am regularly and often "on your side," offer positive rep for a decent take, etc.  I'm just telling you that I -- as that same person who agrees with much of your reasoning -- finds the constant "but Israel" shit exhausting and frustrating as hell.  I find it no less exhausting than the counterpart "everything Israel does is justified because Israel good Hamas bad" shit takes we see plenty of around here.

    I know man but that is just a really bad take that isn't in alignment with what I actually believe and you should know better. Like I have fucking family in Israel, I don't hate it, I want it to be better than it is.

  6. 2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Sigh.

    You know how viscerally - and correctly - you respond to folks who just say simple shit like "Iran is bad because Iran is evil," or "the common thread in terrorism is mooslems?"

    Well....your one-note response of "whatever we're talking about, it all comes back to being Israel's fault" is the other side of the same simple-minded coin.

    While we should not absolve Israel of responsibility for the chaos and violence that has plagued the region for decades, your responses all come back to making Israel the sole owner and root cause of.....everything.  But for Israel, none of these bad actors would have been forced to be bad actors.  Fucking bullshit.  Iran is a great example of that.  There is ZERO reason for Iran to be an existential enemy of Israel.  The primary reason it is.....is because it's totally controlled by a theocratic regime that needs a good external enemy to rally the folks around to distract from oppressive fuckery at home (yeah....a play the US is dusting off like crazy these days). 

    As exhausting as it is to hear the usual suspects blame everything on those dirty mooslems, it's just as exhausting, and as invalid in light of complexity, to hear your constant drumbeat of "everything that is bad in the world is the fault of Israel and US support for same."  It's all like listening to "Boomer Sooner" over and over again.  No variety or complexity, and sister-fuckingly stupid.

    There's ALWAYS time to abandon the Kurds, of that you can be sure.

    Except that isn't what I'm doing, and now you are being disingenuous. I'm not saying "everything bad is a result of Israel and the US", we are talking about those specific groups he mentioned in his post. It is not my fault that literally all of them spun up in direct response to Israeli/US/Saudi Arabian actions. That is inarguable fact, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise to make people feel better about their support for those actions.

    I have never once denied that Iran provides significant material support to those groups, I am arguing that placing the blame entirely on Iran for their existence is ridiculous. Doing that is nothing more than a bullshit rationalization and is often used as a way to manufacture consent by Western media. Everyone involved holds a portion of the blame.

  7. 4 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

    I always heard that it had to pass the premeditated test? I guess bringing a knife to a track meet maybe shows premeditation. But just bringing the knife doesn't mean he planned to kill that particular victim, or does that matter?

    That's the word I was looking for. I am not sure if the Surly lawyers have answered this already in this thread but I am curious.

  8. 13 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

    Strong, openminded responses.  

    He was interviewing a guy.  Who is the one who delivered the relevant information.

    Propaganda:  anything that fucks with your world view.

     

     

    Oh boo hoo you won't take my racist, genocidal freak boy seriously.

    • Haha 3
  9. 9 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

     

    They originally supported them as a countermeasure to the PLO, which provided to be a mistake, but was probably understandable in Hamas' infancy.

    I don't think anyone, especially not the Israelis, would put it past Net to do what you suggest or extend the way to retain power. 

    For years, Netanyahu propped up Hamas. Now it's blown up in our faces | The Times of Israel

     

     

    They have been supporting them and encouraging outside support from the beginning, up until 10/7. It wasn't just in their infancy.

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  10. 2 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

    I never argued Ahmadinejad is the sole author of threats to destroy Israel and I provided you with some additional quotes from folks other than Ahmadinejad.  If your argument is that Iran hasn't pursued a strategy of destroying Israel in the last few decades, I think the evidence belies that.

    And I do realize that some of the folks quoted later said "not really/JK".  Given Iran's part in 10/7, I'm not putting much stock in that.

    What are your thoughts about Netanyahu spending many years propping up Hamas as a forever enemy, including allowing and even encouraging outside actors (such as Qatar) to lend them material support? What are your thoughts on the strong evidence that his office allowed 10/7 to happen in order to have an excuse to flatten Gaza?

    I bet I can guess.

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  11. 4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    You are correct...but also disingenuous.

    Those groups would EXIST without Iran, most likely.   However, they would not have existed as a material fighting/disruptive force without Iran.  Iranian support -- dollars, training, weapons -- is absolutely what enabled Hezbollah to wage war for decades (as just one example).  Sure, Israel and its bullshit were an impetus for the existence of many of these groups, I don't think anyone has argued otherwise.  But the difference between Hezbollah a group of people pissed at Israel and able to cause a bit of chaos here and there vs. Hezbollah a group of people capable of controlling the Lebanese government and waging actual war against Israel is a big one.  And Iran was the difference-maker.

    The world is/would be much better off if Iran's ability to export chaos was sharply curtailed/eliminated.  Trump's move in going after Iran was ill-conceived, done to please his master, and in support of his master's own efforts to cling on to power, NOT based on any new urgent/exigent circumstance.  But a world in which Iran and its proxies have had their capabilities massively degraded is a good thing.  All of those things can be true at the same time.

    Yes of course, the contention begins with whether you believe these groups would exist as they do if we didn't continue to do what we do and allow Israel to behave the way they do (and also, if you believe that any of the scary mooslems have a right to fight back against Israeli aggression). Placing the blame for these group's activities entirely on Iran is straight up pussy shit, and just another symptom of the American allergy to accountability for its own actions. We see it all around the globe, not just in the Middle East.

    Sure, you're not wrong that the world would be better off if Iran's ability to export chaos was neutered, but approaching it from that direction is just kicking the can down the road. Groups like these will continue to pop up and gain power in perpetuity as long as we/Israel continue to be a destabilizing force in the region, and Iran is hardly the only willing sponsor out there. If not them, it will be someone else.

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