If we have a semblance of a functioning OL next year we will lead the conference in scoring. But after 15 years of shit OL I’m not ready to make that assumption.
Putin cares about retaining power above all else. Using nukes is almost a guarantee that he loses that power - either because he’s dead through MAD or by the entire world invading to depose him. The standard Russian playbook in this case is to continue ratcheting up the purges and accusations of traitors.
All these weapons designers have to love the fact that their babies are out there getting to perform in the real world. The Neptune is a pretty new system, right? I assume this is the first time it’s been used in an actual conflict.
Russia is not going to recover from this for 50 years, at least. Economic isolation and military futility will define their future. And every bit of it will be well deserved.
ETA:
Another underrated aspect of this is the complete destruction of their ability to undertake espionage / foreign influence operations. Not only are all their spies being sent back to Moscow, their TV stations and websites are being blocked all throughout the Western world. Even the troll farms are going to be ineffective. If you even vaguely hint at sympathy for Putin or the Russian cause at this point you’re immediately outed.
At this point I would support deployment of a NATO peacekeeping force up to the current lines of contact minus some arbitrary buffer (10 miles, 20 miles, whatever). Given the absolutely barbaric behavior of the Russian invaders I don’t think we can allow a second push to occur in good conscience. If they’re going to launch nukes it won’t be because of this - they’ll manufacture a reason if that’s what they plan on doing. But this is crimes against humanity level shit.
We owe the Ukrainians a debt of gratitude for this. You just know that Putin and Xi had already planned how they were going to capitalize on the “quick victory”. No more axis of evil.
Other than shelling Mariupol into the ground, is Russia actually gaining ground anywhere in the country right now? I know we are biased to pro-Ukraine news but it really seems like they are being pushed back along every front right now. The best news I have read is that tank production (and presumably, other armored vehicle production) is completely shut down meaning they can’t replace any of these equipment losses.
Between the officers getting killed on the frontline and the ones getting purged at home, the Russian army is going to be led by NCOs pretty soon whether they like it or not.