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LurkingHorn

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Everything posted by LurkingHorn

  1. This would be a great result even if you give AZ, GA, and NC to Trump. People are getting way too caught up in the noise. If Biden gets WI, PA, MI, and FL then this thing isn't going to be particularly close. I think many of us want to just spike the ball, but this scenario would still result in 301 electoral votes for Biden and I didn't even give him NV.
  2. He seemed to be well-liked and well-respected in the organization. Carlisle’s previous two assistants who went on to be head coaches have been fairly successful but I don’t have much more than that.
  3. After a lull on Saturday, tarrant starts off this week with its second highest day, another 45k. Will be interesting to see how consistent that stays this week.
  4. Was just coming to post this. Harris is going to get all the headlines, as it should, but tarrant county is still on an upward trajectory which is incredible. They have set a new high every day. This is a sexy looking graph.
  5. Remember when I was slightly underwhelmed with the first day turnout? Tarrant has now topped the first day total twice. 132k votes already which is about 20% of the total votes cast in 2016. I’m a backup poll worker and got called to work next week because of how busy voting locations are. We’ll be casting two more votes tomorrow. Can’t wait.
  6. Don’t have much to add to this story other than I got to hear Stan speak about 6-8 years ago at an awards deal I was at for my wife. Not sure why he was asked to be a speaker and he basically said as such, then proceeded to say he was just going to give his normal marketing pitch. Most of it was about Home Depot and Motel 6, but the whole thing was super awkward. I know. CSB.
  7. Tarrant County has a live tracker if you want to keep up with it: http://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html
  8. The Trump base is about to start dying off at a very rapid rate. This is their last hurrah. They will be around but not nearly in these numbers.
  9. For what it’s worth, Tarrant County had about 42,000 votes today which is roughly 9% of the total early votes from 2016. It’s also about 6% of the total vote from 2016. I honestly was hoping for a little higher turnout than that.
  10. Early voting site by my house in Tarrant County was closed this morning because one of the workers tested positive for COVID and was in training on 10/8 with other workers. Basically none of the workers showed up to work this morning and they had to scramble to get a team together. I'm going to drive by after work to see how long that line is, but I imagine it's a cluster. Also, Tarrant County also has a live voter turnout tracker if anyone is interested: http://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html 21,000+ as of 1 p.m.
  11. Agreed with those above. If there is video of this somewhere, it's going to be really awful.
  12. Just from my own experience re: catching COVID from voting in person, I worked a poll in July and was around hundreds of people throughout the day while wearing a mask and staying as socially distanced as possible. None of the workers got it and most of the people who voted were in and out in less than 10 minutes. Go vote early and everything is going to be fine.
  13. Just to tack on to this, I decided to look up previous PA Senate races for context of the 2018 results. 2016: Incumbent R - Toomey wins by 1.5 point or 86k votes. In 2010 victory, these margins are pretty much the same. 2018: Incumbent D - Bob Casey won by 13 points or 650k votes. In 2012 victory Casey won by 9 points or roughly 490k votes. In 2018 the Dems also flipped 3 House seats and none of those races were even close. That's trending in a poor directions for the GOP. I'm not sure what has changed between 2018 and now that makes people believe the gap has narrowed any.
  14. Didn't LeBron's group, More Than A Vote, also do this? I'd be curious to know how many people they helped by doing this as well.
  15. That's pretty crazy to be so complacent. How did they confirm they were actually watching Netflix? Or were they just not getting it done and your buddy was just saying that in passing. My current company put up a posting for a reservoir engineer position and had to remove it 48 hours later because there were 100s of applications. Incredibly sad to know there are so many people out there right now just looking for anything.
  16. I still have no idea why they don't try to kick Williams out to tackle in this situation. He played there his whole career before arriving at the Cowboys.
  17. Trump won PA by a whopping 44k votes in 2016 when the Dems put a terrible candidate on the ballot and there were many more 3rd party candidates taking away votes. For perspective, Obama won PA by 287k votes in 2012. The result is probably going to fall somewhere in between those two numbers and, unless you think Trump has expanded his base, I think that really favors Biden.
  18. Why do you assume Pennsylvania is going red? Biden isn't running away with it like he is in the other swing states, but if MI and WI go red, it's likely PA does as well.
  19. If tonight is any indication, the debates are not going to do DT any favors. Don’t know how much movement will happen either way at this point, but you have to imagine Trump isn’t going to be gaining much.
  20. This doesn't jive with reality of the situation right now unless you think the polling is way off. Also, if Biden wins the popular vote by 5-6 million, that would basically double the amount Hillary won by and mean Biden has anywhere from 74-89% chance of winning. That's also according to Silver.
  21. This if funny because the only candidate who absolutely has to have FL is Trump. I'm honestly not sure if Biden should waste much time or resources there unless the goal is to put Trump on the defensive.
  22. So if you give the states that are comfortable leads (4+ points) to Biden, he's already at 279 if you assume he doesn't win any other swing states. North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia are going to determine if this is a blowout or not. I'm not buying that Florida and Texas go blue.
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