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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. The thing here though is the over the air depends mainly on the amount of inventory you have. The more you have, the more good stuff you can put on linear for a higher return and you dump the garbage on streaming/conference networks for some extra loot. The B1G, at 14, usually puts 50% of its 63 games on linear, but they're massive games, so they drive big numbers. The rest funds the BTN carriage because all those fans want to see those games. The Big12, at ten teams, had nearly 75% of their 45 games on linear, because they didn't have enough to find a network/streaming and it was the only way to maintain the same level of competitive revenue. You'll see this get distorted in twitter viewership analysis, because all the stuff that would end up on a conference network, which isn't metered, was now on FS1, which is, so they have a lot of low interest games that most conferences bury in the not-metered market. If you ever wonder how the B12 survived losing Texas and Oklahoma, its because they drew really well in these games everyone figured would go unwatched. The Pac currently only has ten teams, but also has an anchor of the Pac 12 networks, with an agreement of 2 football games per year. This means that, unless they fold the PACN, which would be a massive loss write off, the Pac only has about 25 football games they can even take to market, any market, linear or streaming. Even if they could sell all of those, its still less than what the B12 sold to get their current number. The only thing I can think of that is "creative and forward thinking" that can save the PAC's ass at this point, is... Sell the entirety of the PACN to Apple for around $100m, which pays off the Pac's current issues and gives Apple a linear footprint in 14m west coast homes Apple gives the Pac a $3b deal over ten years for the rights to all of their content to be used in any way Apple wants, but most games are now Linear, just on this new channel. Apple rebrands and begins to fill the network off sports, featuring their shows on linear before they move to streaming, increasing buzz and viewership Apple expands its footprint organically by providing local MLB (who is losing local rights in many markets with RSN melt down) and MLS games, in market only (the NFL model) the US in sports markets - double win when the there is both a baseball and soccer team. Each expansion increases size and carriage. Become a player in future local rights, including the NBA That saves the Pac with a $30m/year deal, in PR at least as they won't hit that $30m/year average until 2030.
  2. So the same pitch of the PACN, which was promised $15m and delivered $3m?
  3. Yeah I don't think its ever got to that point with anyone. Nearly all I can remember negotiated out. Maybe SDSU will test that.
  4. That doesn't mean they're not enforceable in court, just that two parties agreed to negotiate a different settlement.
  5. Well, that's the timing thing. If they announce prior to this year ending (by July or August, i can't tell) then they'd lose the revenue for next year as a buyout. They'd also likely have to pick up the Comcast difference too. If they wait until after the next fiscal year ends, then they'd have to stay a year longer, e.g. into the first year of the new contract, which would then be whatever revenue is earned in 2024-25. But, the downside then is you have to sign a GoR to get on the next contract, so, you'd have to break that. Their window to move anywhere is before the next fiscal year starts, whenever that is. After that, they're going to be there for a while. If Comcast is $5m, and the buyout is $35m, and the new PAC contract is $25m, and the Big 12 pays like advertised at around $7m more per year, Colorado/AZ would break even right before the start of the next B12 contract.
  6. So....i went to track it down again and the B12 is 7/1 - 6/30. Here's the bylaws: Seems the Pac goes 8/1 - 7/31, here's from their handbook: Their Gor though, at least the reference to it, I'm guessing they have a tighter version of this somewhere, is started in July... It's a bit messy, but we're coming up on the window of "if you're going to jump, you need to jump now". That jump will cost them a year revenue, if I'm reading it right.
  7. I don't know this one, i haven't read the Pac's agreement. The B12 is August to July, as is I think the SEC's, so I just assumed they all kind of lined up that way.
  8. This. There are TWO agreements and both are equally binding. They just have different terms. Texas and Oklahoma had to settle their buyout AND their GoR to leave, not just one. The game change was for the GoR, the $100m was for the buyout.
  9. Ok something is getting lost in translation here. For the sake of argument, ignore all things GoR for a moment. Colorado and Arizona are contractual members of the Pac 12 and have various agreements dictating what happens if they want to leave, etc. This is in addition to that thing we agreed not to talk about. Leaving a conference has a buy-out amount on its own, regardless of any media deal. I am not sure what the Pac's is, but for the Big 12 it was two years of conference revenues. Money aside, the notice is important because it starts the leaving clock. If the Pac has to give notice 1 year out, then that notice has to occur before the end of that financial year. This is why you saw Texas/Oklahoma/UCLA/USC announce basically on the last days of July. Had they waited a week, the clock would have started at the beginning of the NEXT financial year. Why that's important: If Colorado and Arizona want out at the end of the Pac contract, which is the end of next year, they need to announce that intention by July 31st of this year. If they do not, they, technically - we all know how negotiations work so lets just avoid that conversation for the moment, cannot get out until July 31st of 2024-25, a year after the Pac 12 media contract expires. They either now need to pay more to get out faster, or they fucked themselves and have to get on the Pac's deal or no one will put them on TV in 2024-25.
  10. Right, two different things though. SDSU's window is July, after their buyout doubles. Texas and Oklahoma both paid $50m to BUYOUT, their GoR was settled with timing and a Michigan/Texas game for Fox. The Pac GOR ends next year, so no one would sign another one and then leave. So they get an easy out saying they're gone next year, but they still have a notification window and, generally, that is a year, or two in the B12's deal, after the current. If they notify, they're leaving in the next month, they can be on another contract next year. If they notify in August, they can be on another contract a year after, since the fiscal year would have changed. And THAT is the huge deal. Because now they have to sign any deal the Pac has or they're in no-mans land
  11. This stuff TK is saying is the entire reason for the deadlines. Like the SDSU fiasco, notifications have to occur within windows, or fuckdom occurs. For the Pac, its before the next financial year
  12. I love how Nebraska's rival 20 years ago was Oklahoma. Now it's Iowa, and it's the only one....and its protected.
  13. You're joking right? I'm more they won't take Utah over each of those two
  14. Jesus, unequal AND $23m?! To get the Ducks and Huskies to $32m, the other eight would only clear $20m. My guess is unequal is in any future post season revenue since they can't budget for it yet, unless you're Washington State.
  15. They can stop it very, very easily. At some point, without an anti-trust exemption, CFB needs political help to reduce access. Much of the move from 2 to 12 in recent years has been for providing more post season opportunity optics as it has been increasing money. CFB is the only NCAA sport with so few schools routinely represented in the post season and that raises eyebrows. The NCAA has tried for decades to get the NFL's antitrust exemption and if they couldn't do it I guarantee you that the B1G/SEC can't do it on their own. The only way to shake it more is to break away fully from the NCAA for a single sport. Conferences would kind of cease to be and it would move to this organization. But even then, due to not having the exemption, the organization would need to offer a path to joining or these universities would start to be treated as businesses. So, having 6 autos isn't frowned upon by the SEC/B1G even if they say "it should be the best 12" because by allowing the autos they stay out of federal hearings on their financial structure. And they would, once states lost access, those politicians would start banding together and it would be a huge mess. On top of that, it doesn't really gain them anything. The B1G and SEC are already going to get 3 each in, they're going to restructure the financials so the B12 windfall of the CFP doesn't occur anymore, you'll get paid by the number of teams you have in your conference, for one, and, likely, performance over time, as another. In short, their battle for a 4th team, just isn't worth the fight.
  16. There are 4 byes that go to the top 4 highest ranked conference champions.
  17. Yeah my brainiac cousin fucked up round one of going to school with booze and drugs and the family drama had him pegged as the washout. Then got his shit together and went this route to lean into his geek and climbed the corporate ladder easily. His Aggy sister, on the other hand, is now a hot mess.
  18. California is like Chicago and NYC/Philly/DC though - more kids than local schools. I'd guess the biggest out of state enrollment for Wisconson, Indiana, Iowa and Iowa State is Chicago, just like NYC kids flood the entire east coast. It doesn't matter if Colorado even has sports, it will still have 12% of its enrollment from Cali. 15% of CSU's enrollment is from Cali/Texas/Illinois
  19. Colorado made $5m less than Kansas State last year, the lowest revenue school in the B12, while running a $10m deficit. They'd move for the daily deal at McDonalds at this point.
  20. Agree, and Primetime still kind of lives there Yeah no doubt. It was more a sign they have so few good options.
  21. Assuming Colorado and Zona bolt, seems most likely. At that point though are you better off with Boise or CSU or Fresno? Or hell, do you elevate and invest in Fullerton, who has like 35-40k students, in Orange county to get more SoCal? Id not want to be in their shoes if UC/AC leave, because I doubt the rest will stick together fully.
  22. Yeah its the same math the Big 12 had at 10. Either you can move the needle already, or you need to invest in someone to move the needle later. But, with no one for the Pac to move immediately, they're in a bind. I saw one Big 12 administrator comment, and I wish i could find it again, when asked why they're in a better position than the Pac 12, they said something along the lines of "Well, because we have fans west of us." Also, this:
  23. So...i went and looked at their current roster and here's where they reside: SoCal - 11 Colorado - 11 Non-SoCal/Colorado Pac States - 8 Big 12 States - 24 Everywhere Else - 19
  24. They lost SoCal, which was kind of their entire reason for going to the Pac originally along with ensuring they had a seat in the Pac 16, they didn't gain financially from it. I'm not sure how much benefit they get out of NoCal and if you're fighting in LA without even the option to play in LA, like they could with USC/UCLA, does it become a better pivot to head to Dallas and Houston?
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