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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. If they use Republican and Democratic turnout percentages from 2014 or 2016 they are highly flawed, and a lot of polls do.
  2. Between 2016 and 2018 many of the largest Texas counties have 5% more registered voters. Due to death snd moving another 5% have been replaced, so there are more than 10% new voters. If you go back to 2014 make it 20% or more people who will vote in 2018 who were not a county resident or not registered in 2014. Any polling model that does not account for the demographics related to 20% of the voters will be flawed.
  3. Hillary won Harris by 160,000 votes and her net for the largest 26 counties, which have 75% of the vote, was 260,000. Factoring ongoing demographic shifts I expect Beto to win Harris by 270,000 +/- 30,000. He should also be up by that amount in Dallas county. Given the almost 2016 turnout he really needs to be up by 500,000 votes in those two counties combined to have a chance.
  4. Trump got 8.1% fewer votes than Romney, so based on a 4% decrease every 2 years due to demographics Wilco should be slightly Democratic in 2018. Based on moves away from the Republican party by educated voters and women Beto could conceivably win Wilco by 4% or more.
  5. Williamson at 22.81% and Bell at 13.16% is great news for MJ Hegar. Willco should flip to Democrat giving her the lead there while Bell should still tilt Republican. Going into it the two counties looked like the might offset each other making it a close race, but with Willco that far ahead I am liking MJ's chances.
  6. When I was an R&D manager at in instrumentation company we used to do what we called, dumb monkey testing, in other words mimicking a monkey at the keyboard randomly hitting keystrokes. It was always easy to find a sequence that programmers failed to test that caused errors. While I don't trust Republicans as far as I can throw them, it would not surprise me if this is a problem due to bad software and failures to test it adequately.
  7. Except there is no left when progressive policies poll at 60% or higher. Even Democrats who oppose healthcare for all are right wingers now. The country already provides healthcare, social security, disability, education, wage controls, fire, police, roads, border protection, a defensive military, and more. Wanting to make those things work better is a mainstream position. The actual number of people advocating for socialism or open borders is in the very low single digits. There is no reason to even bring them up.
  8. I posted part of an item by item analysis of the 2016 Republican platform and found that with few exceptions they are below 40% popularity in polling of the general public or lies. I think there were 5 or 6 items out of 125+ that did not fall in those categories.
  9. Funny, I see St. Andrew's cross in red.
  10. Montgomery went 79.7% for Romney, 73.5% for Trump. If Beto can get it under 70% Cruz that will be a big advantage for him. Someone mentioned Midland that went 80.0% for Romney and 75.1% for Trump, so that is another place where even 70% for Cruz would be a big Beto advantage. Similarly Lubbock went 69.6% for Romney and 66.3% for Trump. Small improvements in red counties could be huge this election.
  11. By "Beta" I thought he was referring to Cruz. There is only one Beta in the race.
  12. The biggest influence on future Florida elections for 2018 will be if 1.5 million felons get their right to vote back. It will make it a lot tougher for Republicans to win a statewide race.
  13. If it means the Democrats win the Senate then Senate. Otherwise, Governor
  14. It looks like my vote is being suppressed. Still no absentee ballot and possibly not enough time to mail it.
  15. I prefer to think of it in terms of Republicans have to win ND, TN, and TX to hold a 50-50 majority. I like the odds of the Democrats winning at least one of those races.
  16. You must have failed arithmetic. Almost 3.9 million Texans voted for Hillary and the expected turnout for this midterm is between 5.5 and 6 million. Another 70,000 voted for the green party, so that is another readily identifiable source of Beto voters. It is easiest to get a list of these voters and call, text or knock to GOTV. If 3 million vote, Beto wins.
  17. You and others have been saying it for months and have wrong for months. Beto does not win by wasting time trying to get Latinos to vote who never vote, and when the do, don't vote reliably Democratic. This is a midterm. Beto can win if he gets 3 million Hillary voters to come out. They are a much easier group to get out to vote. Adding some new young progressives to the mix only helps. He does a lot of speeches on campus for a reason as current students are more reliably Democratic when they vote than Latinos as a whole.
  18. Vote yes, only to have their ballot thrown in the trash.
  19. I am afraid it will take more of a French revolution approach to change Republican minds.
  20. Unless it was a hooker named Charity.
  21. TYT covered this in a YouTube video.
  22. I also wonder about how many never Trumpers and anti abortion single issue voters who will be happy with the Republican supreme court but don't care about the rest of their agenda and not bother to come out.
  23. I have been watching the posts on the Kavanaugh thread as a gauge of Republican excitement over his nomination. The thread is pretty dead with 3 weeks to go. By election day I think the Republicans will lose almost the entire enthusiasm bump that came out of the hearings.
  24. I have to keep reminding myself that the difference between my intellect and an average human is the greater than the difference between an average human and a German Shepherd.
  25. It makes me think our species is stupid.
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