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BTW

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Everything posted by BTW

  1. Maybe it'll get down to $4.20 on 4/20?
  2. spot prices in Midland are $4.50 right now
  3. There're more blood coming. I really do think we are headed back into the teens here before too long. Also, adding to the previous discussion. I know a lot of groups are drilling deeper/brackish wells for source water and using less of the shallower and relatively fresh water.
  4. Another week another 15+MM build in inventories. This all seems to be priced in as we're still up >3%. I'm still short oil, as this rally seems to be artificial, maybe people unwinding short positions?
  5. ~5% pull back holding strong this morning. I'm surprised it isn't more, but we're early in the trading day and the broad market rally could be propping things up a bit.
  6. Midland’s “Tracker Boat Center” as of about noon on 4/3. That’s a lot of cars parked in front of a non-essential business.
  7. I"ll drive by the boat store today and report back.
  8. $27.80 this morning. I'm having a really hard time believing this bounce will last.
  9. I'm wading back in by selling some puts.
  10. And we're up almost 30% as of this moment: $25.83
  11. Another type of "flattening the curve"
  12. Wow inventories +13.8 Million BBLS. Not too surprising, but crazy to actually see that number.
  13. "Saudi Aramco, the monopoly oil producer in Saudi Arabia, boasts an extraction cost of about $2.80 a barrel, according to the prospectus for last year's initial public offering of its shares." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/by-pumping-at-will-saudi-arabia-hurts-oil-investment/2020/03/15/189505da-6693-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html Granted, they can't run their kingdom at these price levels, but their cost of production is the cheapest in the world. So if their sovereign wealth fund can prop things up while they wait out Russia, they can turn a profit at these prices and even lower. There isn't a single US E&P making money at these prices.
  14. Oil just dipped back below $20/BBL My office is in a 10 story building on Wall Street in the center of downtown Midland. This morning, construction workers are diligently building a $15 Million park across the street where the courthouse used to be. I pulled up to the front door and parked on the curb right outside. I haven't been able to do that on a Monday morning since I moved in here a couple of years ago. I had to use an access card to get into the lobby. Then again to get the elevator to go to my floor. Whereas normally, the lobby and elevators are open during normal business hours. When the doors to my floor opened, it was completely dark, I had to fumble around for a few minutes just to find the light switch. Then I let myself into my office. It's eerie being the only person on my floor at 10am on a Monday morning. Several folks I've talked to are planning to just "sit back and wait this out." But I don't have that luxury. I've spent a lot of time thinking about pivoting to another industry, but seeing as this is kind of a one-horse town, it will be quite difficult to do without moving. I own a house here in Midland, that I almost certainly can't sell, so I'm feeling stuck. I'm wearing my thinking cap out trying to find a way to benefit from this downturn and I'm running out of ideas. Rant over.
  15. A friend at a mid-sized public E&P said they are forecasting $13/BBL field price for next month. This storage situation is going to be a real mess.
  16. Keep trying ... "Our strategy in these analyses was to fix R0 at some value and analyze how the system dynamics changed when altering the other parameters, providing an opportunity to determine if the information gained from R0 estimates was relevant. We chose R0 = 1.5 as a baseline because it is a value that has been applied to previous influenza pandemics " @JBJ
  17. I got that R-value for flu from this article and this paper. Where are you seeing the claim that most flus have an R value of 2-3?
  18. I'm cross posting the analysis I just did: Here's why comparisons to influenza appear to be erroneous. - There is no "herd" immunity to the SARS-CoV2 virus because it's new. There is herd immunity to influenza (which is actually a class of many different viruses strains). Due to this only about 8% of the population gets the flu every year. This herd immunity is also boosted by vaccines for which there is obviously none for COV2. - The average mortality rate of influenza is .1% or about 1/1000 cases. The current estimated mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1.4% (14/1000) or 14x higher than influenza. - The transmission rate of influenza (called R0 or R-naught) is ~1.3. Meaning each person with the flu will get 1.3 other people sick. The R0 for SARS-CoV2 is estimated to be 2-3. Meaning it's about 2x more transmissible than the flu. So here's your mortality math assuming 350 Million people in USA: Influenza: On average 8% get the flu so 28 Million. Average mortality rate is .1% or 28,000/year. Actual Numbers SARS-CoV2: Having no history to refer to, no one knows how many will get it, but with the 2x R0 transmission rate let's just call it 16% or 56 Million. Mortality rate is 1.4% or 784,000 deaths.
  19. Okay, I'll bite: here's why comparisons to influenza appear to be erroneous. - There is no "herd" immunity to the SARS-CoV2 virus because it's new. There is herd immunity to influenza (which is actually a class of many different viruses strains). Due to this only about 8% of the population gets the flu every year. This herd immunity is also boosted by vaccines for which there is obviously none for COV2. - The average mortality rate of influenza is .1% or about 1/1000 cases. The current estimated mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1.4% (14/1000) or 14x higher than influenza. - The transmission rate of influenza (called R0 or R-naught) is ~1.3. Meaning each person with the flu will get 1.3 other people sick. The R0 for SARS-CoV2 is estimated to be 2-3. Meaning it's about 2x more transmissible than the flu. So here's your mortality math assuming 350 Million people in USA: Influenza: On average 8% get the flu so 28 Million. Average mortality rate is .1% or 28,000/year. Actual Numbers SARS-CoV2: Having no history to refer to, no one knows how many will get it, but with the 2x R0 transmission rate let's just call it 16% or 56 Million. Mortality rate is 1.4% or 784,000 deaths.
  20. https://www.startribune.com/white-house-congress-agree-on-2-trillion-virus-rescue-bill/569086042/ I won't be seeing anything from this. But you know that individual who makes $75,001/year is cussing right now.
  21. I'm tempted to start buying crude and storing it.
  22. I just saw $20.06 Shit, I didn't think we would ever see prices in the teens again. This has already been said, but lifting costs for most of my production are more than $20/bbl.
  23. I’ll point out that while (seemingly) temporary, the shut down of the country, and to some extent the world, means petroleum usage is at a low we haven’t seen in a long time. I expect this to have trickle-down effects that take > a year unwind. This is on top of the current pullback front the SA/Russia price war. We are proper fucked for 2 years ... at least. I hope everyone is comfortable in the $30s
  24. I've been wanting to get into this game for years. Just bought a book for newbs on the space and am slowly working through it. I'll open a paper account for now to make sure I know what I'm doing before putting any actual money at risk. Who do you guys like to use for trading? My current broker doesn't appear to have any derivatives trading options.
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