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LTbear

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Everything posted by LTbear

  1. That's fine. As you correctly say, I'm not one who's been saying that. The advantage that the Big XII has right now is just born of a combo of having greater numbers, not currently going through the process, not having anyone of obvious/ can't turn it town value to the B1G and SEC, having solid timeslots and average engagement, and not teetering in a position where it's obvious that the remaining big brands are desperately looking to jump (like UO and UW are).
  2. Fully aware. Hence why the Big XII will make half or less than the B1G. But it's still programming that sells. So ya, a new contract that's about equal to the rear end of an old contract with prices set in a long-ago market is certainly reasonable.
  3. Sure, but if OU and UT were staying, the contracts would gain tens of millions just because we're near the end of a contract and prices have escalated. So I wouldn't be surprised if the additions brought enough, considering the new market prices, to keep the Big XII close to what it is now.
  4. Chip not understanding what he's talking about? I am shocked! Shocked I tell you.
  5. *Of course, on the other hand, once the Cascadia Subduction Zone goes off - good chance in the next 50 years - both UW and UO are gone.
  6. For the sake of argument, I think UW is closer to a have than a have not than many schools currently with the "haves."
  7. Play the long game
  8. Funky quote. I think the Big XII's current 40-ish is total distributions, not just media revenue. Regardless, I don't think the four corners schools would add revenue, but I'd still add them if they don't significantly shrink it.
  9. I got curious and looked it up. Between 1960 - 1993 TCU had four seasons of 6+ wins. It was bad. To their credit, they used being left out of the original Big XII as a real call to action and completely revitalized that program over the following decade.
  10. Not at the time. TCU was on a multi-decade run of absolutely awful football back then and had horrible attendance/ interest. As a football program, Baylor was clearly better, they just immediately went into a nosedive once the Big XII started play/ after Teaff retired.
  11. Just for the sake of accuracy, Ann gave no fucks and didn't do shit; that's just a refuses-to-die internet myth because it sounds so obvious. Bob Bullock was the politician who led the charge for Baylor and Tech.
  12. All of ND's "shamrock series" uniforms have been awful
  13. For that matter, Texas also has some of the best remaining habitat for Mexican wolf reintroduction, but it will never get off the ground. Texas has also had two separate additional national parks suggested and studied by the NPS - one at Palo Duro, one in the Davis Mountains - but both times the federal gubmnt has been run outta town for being tree huggers and animal lovers.
  14. Ya, Texas is generally an absolute embarrassment when it comes to conservation. I believe we've been the only state to not have hunting regulations (seasons and bag limits) on mountain lions for, at minimum, a couple decades. Probably more.
  15. I spent five years at Cal doing my PhD. Love the institution. Went to many a football game. And yet I can say they bring nothing athletically. Their best shot is to argue future potential and ride the academic prestige wave.
  16. I think the point is how well do PAC and Big XII teams do when all is equal. Because if, in theory, the PAC is just advantaged by having some late timeslots while the Big XII does better otherwise, then adding a few PAC teams to the Big XII would consolidate some of those uncontested timeslots with overall better ratings.
  17. Adding to this, I think the B12 puts one game per team per year (usually the crappiest non-con) on ESPN+ or LHN, the P12 airs 35 games on the P12 network out of their 144 total game inventory, so he's discarding the bottom 25% of the lowest ratings from their averages.
  18. Man, I just realized one other obvious bias that Mandel admits himself: the PAC's late-night game skews their average because they're up against no competition. So his numbers are already including many more (by %) low-rating Big XII games than Pac games, but he's also skewing Pac numbers with an uncontested timeslot that would (obviously) go to the Big XII if the Big XII were to absorb some Pac members. And: 45% or so of the Big 12's games he sampled were on FS1 or ESPNU. 28% for the PAC. 49% of the PAC was on ABC/ESPN/FOX. 22% for the Big 12. (last bit from external source, not my math)
  19. Seeing as Mandel's numbers only use half of Big XII games, then for this "analysis"/ the convo at hand that you're replying to, likely no.
  20. This exactly. Doing a true apples to apples comparison is possible, and I actually have no idea how it might come out, but it definitely takes a lot more work than what Mandel put in. He did only the most basic, shallow-level "correction;" enough to make the general reader say "oh gee golly this is really well thought out" but not nearly enough for anyone with a mind towards stats and potential statistical biases.
  21. To be fair, Wilner and Mandel are absolutely homers. Wilner makes a career covering PAC sports, and Mandel does the same in large part. Other writers, including others from The Athletic, are much more unbiased. Like I said, Mandel's quick "analyses" are a good starting point, but someone like me who just happens to have dealt with stats a good bit immediately recognized some sources of bias in his breakdown. Taking out UT, OU, USC and UCLA is obviously a good move, but you also have to compare the same quality and depth of game across both conferences to have an apples to apples comparison. You could take other data like this and quickly calculate that the Big 12 - OU/ UT gets more views than the PAC - USC/ UCLA. (No, that's not a great analysis at all, but just as an example).
  22. No idea why now, but for years I had thought you were a Colorado fan.
  23. Ah I missed this. It might get roughly at what I was wondering about. Like it would roughly be considering the top 38% or so of PAC games and the top 55% or so of Big XII games.
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