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Tuco

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Everything posted by Tuco

  1. The early/mail voting stats don't really make me feel good or bad. More Dems believe in the dangers of COVID and believe in the validity of vote-by-mail. It make sense they would be well ahead of 2016 early/mail voting. It makes sense they would be ahead of Republicans in that regard. By how much? Who the fuck knows. So, it's a comparison that I don't see as that interesting. About the only aspect I do find interesting is when they list the percentages of people who didn't vote in 2016. But even that, I'm not sure what is normal.
  2. Q3 FEC filings were released last week. In the race (NE-2) I am following most closely, progressive Democrat challenger Kara Eastman outraised two-time Republican incumbent $1.8M to $900k. Looking at the 2019-2020 cycle overall, she outraised him $3.25M to $3.19M. She did this without taking contributions from corporate PACs, while he was a sitting Congressman living large off their donations. He still has more cash-on-hand because he didn't have to spend on a primary, but I still think that's impressive as hell. She had 4x the total from small donor contributions (<$200). FM3 Research (B/C pollster on 538) has Kara leading by 2 points. Previously polling by NYT in Sept had her down by 2.
  3. Unlikely. But, if Ohio is in play, then they have no chance overall. They have to spend money on getting other must-haves down to 2-3% Biden margins, and then hope polling is undercounting Trump votes by 3%.
  4. Senator from Wisconsin. He's neck deep in the Russia/Ukrainian shit, and looking for any justification. 13? 14? She was a freshman. Yeah, it's kind of fucked up.
  5. Bullshit. If anyone is undecided at this point, it's not because after doing their analysis of various policy positions, they are still unmoved. They are undecided because they are only tangentially involved, and it will come down to who they'd rather have a beer with. It's all about decency.
  6. Absolutely not on Sasse. Maybe he puts an "I" behind his name, but still caucuses with the Republicans. He's the religious right dressed up as an academic. He is what Intelligent Design is to Creationism.
  7. At least I got to vote for Love. But, for all the people with yard Trump and Sasse yard signs, do they take one down?
  8. I'm guessing the biggest difference is that Republicans started to realize he might lose. It's one thing to withhold your approval as a symbolic protest; it's different when you think the black Democrat might actually win. As a Nebraskan, my answer to the soybean question would have been "Three to eight dollars per bowl, depending on which sushi restaurant you go to." It's not like it's something a whole bunch of people talk about. But, there is an expectation in ag states that their delegation members serve on ag committees, and Ernst does serve on the "Committee of Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry." Obviously, she doesn't pay that much attention. So, sort of a bullshit question, but did actually expose a legitimate issue. And what was great about Greenfield's answer isn't that she just demonstrated a knowledge of current pricing, but that she understood the term "break even pricing," which means she understands the dynamics on what it takes a farmer to survive financially. That's way more important in knowing what the price of corn is on October 15. I mean, she has a "D" behind her name, so it won't really matter much to those struggling farmers, but it was still impressive.
  9. More bullshit revisionist history. Paul Ryan absolutely endorsed Donald Trump and Paul Ryan absolutely worked with Donald Trump. And Paul Ryan did so to get a disastrous fucking tax cut for corporations and the investor class, and was only upset that he failed bankrupt Medicaid by kicking it back to the states. Paul Ryan can absolutely go fuck himself. Moral courage? No. Not even fucking close. That arrogant motherfucker kissed the ring, like everyone else in the GOP. Hell, Cruz showed more backbone than Ryan. "Only with Donald Trump and Mike Pence do we have a chance at a better way." - Paul Ryan, 2016 RNC speech.
  10. I hoping that the Ohio bribery scandal well help the Dems this cycle. It's like something straight out of a movie - corrupt politicians taking bribes to direct taxpayer money to nuke and coal plants, at the expense of renewable energies. Disgust with corruption is a fairly bipartisan issue, and this one is pretty easy to digest. Dayton Times
  11. It's simple, but costly. Opposing Trump means losing the Trumpkin vote, which means losing elections. They just want the problem to go away without sacrificing anything. Which is pretty much how they approach any problem - global warming, deadly pandemics, national debt, etc.. Edited to add: and yeah, fuck them. They are cowards and pussies masquerading as leaders, patriots, and Christians. Fuck all of them.
  12. I am willing to be that 90% of Republican politicians want him to go away nearly as bad as we do. They are tired of having to meekly defend his actions and rhetoric. They don't want another 4 years of this shit. They are more successful as an opposition party.
  13. Joe has enough money to shovel it into places he has no chance of winning, like Alaska and Montana. If he gets more votes there, so does the Dem/Indy Senate candidates who have legit shots.
  14. Yeah, I looked at it a little more, and it was saying that 95.9% of the early votes were for Trump, in a county that he won 67.4% of the vote in 2016. I think this is strong evidence that Texags has some extremely gullible people on it.
  15. Cool. Maybe in a month we can convince you that Biden will win. (all smiley faces 'n shit. I don't have a problem with the doom and gloom, as there is part of me that is there too.)
  16. You must feeling positively optimistic today to call it a toss-up.
  17. That looks like bullshit to me. There are no states that are actually counting who you voted for, and -fun fact - you don't register by party in Wisconsin. There would be absolutely no way of knowing how many Republicans vs. Democrats are sending in their ballots. It looks like targetearly may be a data mining operation, so they may be trying to make some assumptions based on locations, or demographics. But, more likely, it's click bait to gather information to help with their targeting. According to one of the posts in that thread, Targetearly was banned from twitter after reposting some bullshit. That being said, there was a Madison State Journal article which had some pro-Trump implications in registrations, but even that is pretty inconclusive. Wisconsin State Journal from July
  18. Sasse probably leaked it himself, trying to invoke some shadow of a backbone. Unfortunately his Democratic opponent is going to struggle to get the majority of Democratic votes. What a clusterfuck.
  19. I'm not sure being buddies with a woman Democratic Senator from California is what Graham is going to pay to advertise.
  20. As has been pointed out previously, Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho actually sought advice from people who were relatively intelligent. He is the better President, and its not really close.
  21. It would also be the last Nebraska ever split their EV. (I suspect it will be regardless.)
  22. Everyone seem pissed off that Trump is getting an hour town hall, opposite Biden. I am not. Any opportunity to have Trump off-script in front of the cameras is great. To have ordinary people asking him question, even better. I don't think it will matter much in the Presidential race, but I want to watch Congressional/Senate Republican candidates continue to try to defend his insanity.
  23. I'll add that if the Democratic leadership had refused to impeach for this, they risked cracks in their ranks. There were enough Dems who were pissed off that nothing was done to follow-up on the Mueller Report.
  24. Because the President committed a crime. Because the President was continuing to extort a foreign country to fabricate dirt on an political rival, contrary to the national security interests of our country. And, frankly, because there was some political gain from it. Susan Collins is basically toast because of it, partly because of the fundraising it generated. Even amongst people who were negative on the impeachment, many of them concluded that Trump had acted improperly. It's not something you want to put as a central campaign theme, but I don't believe it hurt the Democrats in total.
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