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B00M

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by B00M

  1. Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
    14 minutes ago, B00M said:
    Definitely not trying to trap you. I appreciate your perspective even if I currently find myself disagreeing with it. He argues that we need a months-long shut down in order to suppress the spread and needless death due to hospital over run. He's projecting 500k to 10M deaths in the US almost entirely due to healthcare collapse. 
    Link again for convenience: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
    He also argues that the assumption guiding our current strategy, that we'll emerge from this with herd immunity, is dangerous; its already mutated so many times, giving it hundreds of millions additionsl opportunities may sign us up for annual covid-season (where our annual vaccine is only effective against some strains). The months-long shut down buys us time to ramp up testing/idolation, build PPE, vents, temp hospitals, etc. 
    What strategy would you suggest if you were in Trump's ear? 
     

    Read more  

    I'm sorry, but what are Thomas Pueyo's credentials again? He is the author of the article, so why should we take this one more seriously?

     

    I guess thats a fair question but what credentials does someone really need when they cite all of their sources and state their assumptions? If you're reading this thread you're clearly used to filtering out bullshit. Review his prior article and draw your own conclusions. 

    This is what his little bio on the site says:

    2 MSc in Engineering. Stanford MBA. Ex-Consultant. Creator of viral applications with >20M users. Currently leading a billion-dollar business @ Course Hero

    Editor of Tomas Pueyo
    ·
    Top writer in Health
  2. 9 hours ago, closetojumping said:

     

    Honestly not sure what the trap is in the question or if there is one. You could tell me anything from the future about this right now and I could find a way to believe it. I think it’s nuts if others don’t see it that way. There is so much unknown right now about all of this that predicting the future in a way that means you’re certain and should be accountable seems futile and silly. 

    Definitely not trying to trap you. I appreciate your perspective even if I currently find myself disagreeing with it. He argues that we need a months-long shut down in order to suppress the spread and needless death due to hospital over run. He's projecting 500k to 10M deaths in the US almost entirely due to healthcare collapse. 

    Link again for convenience: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

    He also argues that the assumption guiding our current strategy, that we'll emerge from this with herd immunity, is dangerous; its already mutated so many times, giving it hundreds of millions additionsl opportunities may sign us up for annual covid-season (where our annual vaccine is only effective against some strains). The months-long shut down buys us time to ramp up testing/idolation, build PPE, vents, temp hospitals, etc. 

    What strategy would you suggest if you were in Trump's ear? 

     

  3. 2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

    Isn’t it already? NY residents can’t really go anywhere or do anything unless they’re deemed “essential”. They have a high list of infections. If you mean in terms of dead people, I assume the reason we’re all isolating ourselves and ducking for cover is because we realize death is a real risk here, and we’d all like to avoid it for the time being. 

    If you mean the “we’re Italy in two weeks!” stuff, the point of contention when that was being discussed here was that we already were in that range in different places, and claiming a chart overlay was silly. We identified sick patients before Italy and people have been walking around with it for weeks/months. 

    Also, I have more faith in America and our doctors and scientists and other factors about our demographics to believe that all other things equal, we’re not any better prepared than Italy. I know thinking that is borderline heresy on this thread, but I’ll live with the Surly doomsdayer gloating if they’re incinerating bodies en masse in NY in a few weeks. 

    So you must disagree with this guy's assumptions, projections and conclusions? He's the single best source for info I've seen. 

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

     

     

  4. 54 minutes ago, iodeac said:

    This was posted by a doctor in New Orleans on a different message board I've frequented over the years. Absolutely terrifying. You all stay safe.

    So, just to give some perspective.
    Yesterday, I was in a 3 hr meeting at the hospital deciding on our principles of treatment once the trigger of a 'disaster' declaration is declared. I expect it will be this week.
    Today, we have 18 Covid patients (btwm for you young folk out and about in bars, 2 of the folks on vents are healthy twentysomethings).
    3 days ago, we had 2.
    It is truly at the exponential phase. We'll be Italy in 7-10 days.
    So anyway, to give an idea of what we discussed:
    there was serious discussion about refusing to intubate anyone 65 or over (in China, 65 was a major inflection point -- if you were 65 or over, your mortality if placed on a vent is 80%. If even 64, the mortality was 1/6th as high if placed on a vent.
    The AVERAGE time on a vent was 2 weeks for covid patients.
    We are a Level 1 Trauma Ctr in a city with lots of GSW's and accidents, but we only have 60 vents. Once those 60 vents are taken, covid folks will be SOL. We had a long discussion about withholding vents for possible traumas -- still up in the air.
    It is quite likely that we will not perform CPR on covid pt's who code, regardless of age.
    In general, we try to keep pt's on the vent if they are clinically stable for an indefinite period of time. We discussed having a 72 hr threshold -- if it doesn't look like mom is improving in 72 hrs, and another pt needs the vent, we would withdraw care.
    Mind you, these Draconian measures will likely be in play by the end of this week...


    Enviado desde mi SM-G973U mediante Tapatalk
     

    They cleared out Bourbon Street yesterday morning. Fuck. New Orleans is going to get ugly

  5. 6 minutes ago, Xian said:

    This looks horrible, but we have a much greater population.  So maybe we still have some time?

    that said, we still don’t have widely available testing.  So who knows 

    The issue is infection density more than raw #s. Per capita certainly doesn't capture it either. It's almost like the thing to look for is each country's densest areas of infection. How does the spread in the Seattle area compare to Milan? 

  6. 1 minute ago, iodeac said:

    Hi all, this thread is much more informative than on my own board, so thanks for that.
    Couple thoughts:
    I live close to Charlotte where we have a ton of microbreweries. I was at one on Tuesday night, and they just announced they were closed until further notice. To my knowledge they're the first ones to close outright, so I wonder if something happened there specifically. I think in our county we have about 5 cases so far.

    Driving home from the mountains this afternoon and we saw some packed church parking lots. Coupled with stories of people packing bars this weekend and the pictures from airports where people were waiting on lines for hours is really unsettling

    I'm in charge of a Meetup group that meets on Wednesday nights in a bookstore. Our group is about 5-10 people, but the bookstore itself is pretty big. I'm not sure if I should cancel for the next few weeks or what. Do you think it's safe to go to friends' houses, etc if it's only a few people? Our local pub can hold about 50, at this point I'm thinking about just holing up inside my house with no contact whatsoever just because I'm not sure if we should be in contact with anybody at this point.

    Thanks, just trying to plan out a strategy for the next few weeks or months or whatever. Fortunately I can work from home so that's not an issue.

    Enviado desde mi SM-G973U mediante Tapatalk
     

    Welcome! Please cancel any social plans you've got and stay home. In 2 weeks we will see the results of these efforts and undoubtedly wish we'd started isolating sooner.

    • Like 6
  7. 15 minutes ago, F250 said:

    My 18 year old son has been all over the fucking place this week. He decided to take a trip to Fiesta Texas, played in the Comal baseball tournament, been to his girlfriend's house daily, attempted to make a day trip to N. Padre, crashed at his friend's house and has probably played in a Chuck E Cheese ball pit too.

    My 67 year old mother in law just showed up a little while ago unannounced and it turns out her and my son made plans to go out for lunch and do a little shopping. I looked at my wife and she said "well, they already made plans."

    spacer.png

     

    My 65 y/o MIL went to church this morning because they were just under the 250 person limit. No red flags there! She was the fucking GREETER. If she comes over unannounced she's not coming inside.

    • Like 1
  8. 2 hours ago, Moby Ric said:

    Oh for fucks sake, fuck off Debbie Downer.

    The 20-something party goer might say the same to you telling them to stay in. We're asking everyone to make choices for the benefit of society. The most obvious way to prevent hospital over run is social distancing. The next best thing we can do is individually be as healthy as possible to minimize our chances of taking a hospital bed we wouldn't otherwise need. 

  9. 2 hours ago, Moby Ric said:

    I am going gain 10 lbs while this shit goes on. We have meals planned out for days.  Wife was told to stay away from the office for 14 days, kids home, it is like a staycation.  All there is to do for 2 weeks is eat, drink, screw, and watch Disney plus and Netflix.  It is not the virus that is going to kill us all it is the going back work.

    If you stop drinking and even just lightly exercise to boost your immune system you'll lose 10 lbs. Drinking heavily right now and depressing your immune system is almost as selfish as the fucks out partying.

    • Like 1
  10. 2 hours ago, msucolt45 said:

    Hope all is well and South Austin can get better! No sports on the tube sucks too!

    I went out this morning to go on a “TP Run” this AM at 6:30. HEB was “open” but NO TP!!!!

    Daughter called me yesterday stating that she had a $20 pack of TP at Walmart and wanted to know if I wanted it - YES, so I transfer her some money (broke college student coming home). She gets home and it’s a MFg big dozen count of paper towels! She said that it was in the aisle that TP usually is! Maybe there should be another thread for daughters (no pics), but she’s not the sharpest mentally!

    You just got two new stay at home hobbies! Cutting that paper towel into 3-4 rolls of TP and then unclogging toilets!

  11. On 3/10/2020 at 8:47 PM, 2300 Nueces said:

    Someone's trying to pull the wool over our eyes and it's not the first time.

     

    https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-03-08-coronavirus-patient-describes-life-on-cruise-ship-in-quarantine

    "Jerri Jorgensen and I experienced the rapidly rising high fever for a few hours. Mark did not. I still have a cough. Jerri and Mark never had one. I have been ranking my illness a “two” on a one-to-ten scale. If I wasn’t contagious, I would have been at work the next day."

     

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-patient-reassure-people-190303174.html

    Luckily for 65-year-old Claudio, his case of the virus was also pretty mild. He's the mayor of a town in northern Italy, where that country's outbreak is worst.

    Sounds like a cold to me.

    How much tax did you pay getting all your money out? Or do you not pay taxes?

  12. 18 minutes ago, C-Man said:

    There was a short discussion at some point about ACE inhibitors potentially causing the effects of COVID-19 to be much worse if you were to contract it. The poster had a question into their doc about weaning off them until this subsides — did you get an answer? I’m on an ACE inhibitor for BP. Wondering what you were told so I can follow up with my PCP on Monday.

    I looked into this some. From what i could gather, use of ACE inhibitors apparently increases the expression of ACE2 (ACE2 is different than ACE). CV apparently binds to target cells through ACE2, which could be why high BP and diabetes are risk factors with CV. 

  13. 11 minutes ago, Quagmire said:

    What a cocksucker. Is he hoping a pic of his family garners some sympathy? If you want to avoid the NYT paywall just Google "17,700 sanitizers" ... I hope a local emergency declaration allows his inventory to be confiscated and distributed to hospitals.

     

     

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