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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. Short sellers whisper Sparking runs through social screens Banks tremble in fear
  2. One other tidbit. The FDIC will/have asked the SVB employees to stay on as the bank is wrapped up. Typically, these employees are paid at 150% of normal pay given the need for their familiarity with the business (and the long hours).
  3. Thiel deserves scrutiny of his trades after prompting the run. Again, uninsured depositors will be made whole or close to whole. SVB had assets (poorly structured for duration risk). FDIC will make funds available for insured account holders early next week. Uninsured accounts will gain access incrementally as assets are secured. That could be early next week as well. The FDIC is not expected any tax dollars on this bank failure. The sticky wicket for startups will access to ongoing credit. SVB understood the game and a JPMorgan-type will not.
  4. The FDIC will ensure an orderly sale of assets and pay non-FDIC insured depositors. Once the FDIC establishes the value of SVB’s assets (this weekend) depositors will have access to funds for business needs. The FDIC knows what it is doing. Thiel triggered this bank run. SVB officers and directors ham-handily rolled out a rescue plan that caused Thiel to panic. The bank made some shitty bets in a rising interest rate environment. Tech prospered in the free money regime; that regime is dead. Time to break the old mindset and catch-up with the new boss. And ffs, diversify and hedge. SVB was living in a fantasy world that crashes with the New Fed.
  5. Moral hazard remains a problem for financial engineers. Tech bros: “Ours!”
  6. It appears mElon is the living embodiment of the Waluigi Effect (one’s unconscious beliefs are as strong as the effort to suppress them).
  7. Things go wrong quickly when the flow of Spice slows — Bene Gesserit Witch, probably.
  8. Thanks to the Fed’s QT, the money supply is shrinking. Despite this, inflation continues. And shrinking the money supply (as the Fed is currently doing) has historically created unintended consequences:
  9. Inflation characteristics following Black Swan shocks when markets are dominated by few firms: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/343/
  10. You want to see something scary? Welcome to AI reading your mind. We need guardrails, but the global competing in this area assures the our machine overlords are past the point of conception.
  11. I have now seen all of the films nominated for Best Picture, except Women Talking (looking forward to that film). Some excellent films nominated, but The Whale is the best picture In my humble opinion. Aronofsky at his best; fine acting by all, and wonderful writing by Samuel Hunter. It should have been nominated.
  12. Some surprising numbers when breaking down by state (e.g., more in Colorado support the overturning of Roe than South Carolina), but large majority of Americans want abortion to be safe and legal. https://www.prri.org/research/abortion-attitudes-in-a-post-roe-world-findings-from-the-50-state-2022-american-values-atlas/
  13. Noah - get the boat!
  14. Best explanation so far from the Fed. New Fed publication - the inflationary effects of sectoral reallocation from services to goods with Covid-19: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/the-inflationary-effects-of-sectoral-reallocation.htm
  15. I would prefer she remain out of the media, but it is what it is. She should consider security given the loony nature of most trumpers.
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