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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. Terminal rate guess - 5.5%. One factor to consider: https://www.thesling.org/the-hidden-cause-of-economy-wide-inflation/ My claim is that platform MFNs are a hidden cause of the current macroeconomic inflation. An economy full of dominant intermediaries, all of whom use MFNs and their non-price equivalents, is an economy primed to turn private unilateral market power into widespread macroeconomic inflation when it comes time for recoupment.
  2. Key moment of the press conference: Reporter: “Chairman Powell- the stock market is moving higher” (it wasn’t at that moment) Powell: ~ “fucking idiots.” Markets accelerate downward.
  3. Yields moving higher as well as the press conference continues.
  4. The Fed promised pain and will not be satisfied until millions are put out of work. This is a Fed created problem with their commitment to the Fed Put (f/k/a the Greenspan Put). The Put was Fed Orthodoxy from 1997 - 2021. Clowns like Larry Summers had no problem with the Fed Put until very recently. tldr: if you cannot spot the sucker at the poker table, you are the sucker.
  5. “Cumulative effects” = things may break warning Dollar drops; equities rise The dreaded Lag
  6. It is a testament to the board and its owner/admins that it has resisted the Q brain rot for the most part. Q brain rot is worse than kudzu.
  7. ISM shows growth and stabilizing prices paid. Stable prices equals inflation slowing. Jolts numbers scaring markets as employment remains strong (Fed wants higher unemployment to stop wage price spiral). The market has been pricing in a pivot (again). Inversion in the 10/3 (key Fed measure) looming, which should signal the Fed to back off intensity of hikes. Small business missing rent payments and consumers relying more on credit cards with high interest rates are evidence of the Fed rate hikes working to destroy demand. Bad news is good news remains in play when it comes to the Fed. Perverse to say the least but reality in this Fed driven economy.
  8. Well done SpaceX. Ignore the noise and focus on the work.
  9. The Fed wants to fight inflation by almost doubling unemployment from 3.5 to 6%. Why? Because that is the primary tool available to it. They have no power to combat one of the primary drivers of inflation: Political pressure will ramp up from the Dems and the Populist Repubs as a result of the yaw demonstrated above. Temporarily, that pressure indicates a weakening dollar and stronger S&P when pricing in the peak Fed Rates on the anticipation the Fed will blink. The Fed is caught in a trap of its own making. tldr: pain and no solution for one of the core drivers of inflation. As the economic uncoupling of the West from China continues, supply chains must shorten and become more resilient. Localization and regionalization will redefine the economies of the West. Great opportunities will emerge as old solutions wither. No CR. We are all in this together.
  10. Says the busker for Bruce Bartlett and the Peter G. Peterson in 2010. By the way, since Bartlett is now a progressive, perhaps he might provide some inspiration for your wheezy economic views.
  11. For emphasis - here is the correction from the NBC reporter spreading the third person in the house misinformation today on Meet the Press:
  12. Elon’s Twitter: If he is visionary, it might be worthwhile for Musk to get an eye exam. He is killing his brand.
  13. From the WaPo - The Washington Post corroborated that a voluminous blog written under DePape’s name and filled with deeply racist and antisemitic writings — as well as pro-Trump and anti-Democratic posts — belonged to the suspect. In a single day earlier this month, the blog had seven new posts. The titles included: “Balcks Nda jEwS,” “Were the Germans so Stupid?” “Who FINANCED Hitler’s rise to Power” and “Gas chamber doors.” . . . More recently, CNN reported that in 2018 and 2019, Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — who was elected to Congress in 2020 and quickly became known for her conspiracy theory-laden views — repeatedly expressed support for executing prominent Democratic politicians, including Pelosi. Greene liked a Facebook comment that said “a bullet to the head would be quicker” as a way of removing Pelosi as speaker, CNN found. And in a video of a speech Greene gave promoting a 2019 petition she’d launched to impeach Pelosi for “crimes of treason,” Greene calls Pelosi “a traitor to our country” and says the speaker could be executed for treason. “It’s a crime punishable by death — is what treason is,” Greene says in the video, according to CNN. “Nancy Pelosi is guilty of treason.” https://apple.news/AtO848P0iQC6mPhUB7iUUTw
  14. Manson’s “hippie commune” wanted to start a race war.
  15. Poisoning minds. Alternative reality for those who have lost touch with reality. Creating monsters.
  16. It's fascinating to watch the right wing kooks deploying misinformation on twitter and in their media silos. They are showing a mug shot of a black man (not the perp who is white) and claim he supports Castro (the perp at one point lived in the Castro district of San Francisco; the perp was right wing anti-commie who claimed the Democrats are communists).
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